Heinrich-type glacial surges in a low-order dynamical climate model

Recent studies suggest the occurrence of sporadic episodes during which the ice streams that discharge ice sheets become enormously active, producing large numbers of icebergs (reflected in North Atlantic sea cores as Heinrich events) and possibly causing the partial collapse of the ice sheets. To simulate the mechanism of internal thermo-hydrodynamical instability implied by such behavior in the context of a more general paleoclimate dynamics model (PDM), we introduce a new sliding-catastrophe function that can account for ice-sheet surges. In particular, using simple scaling estimates derived from the equations of motion and thermo-conductivity for ice flow, we express this function in terms of the thickness, density, viscosity, heat-capacity, and heat-conductivity of ice. Analysis of the properties of this function suggests that these Heinrich-type instability events might be of three possible kinds: the first type of event occurs in periods of glacial maximum when temperature conditions on the ice surface are extremely cold, but internal friction within bottom boundary layer is also at its maximum and is strong enough to melt ice and cause its surge. The second type of event may happen during an interglacial, when the ice thickness is small but relatively warm climatic conditions on the upper surface of ice can be easily advected with the flow of ice to the bottom where even a small additional heating due to friction may cause melting. The third and, perhaps, most interesting type of event is one that may occur during ice sheet growth; in this period particles of ice reaching the bottom still remember the warm temperature conditions of the previous interglacial and additional heating due to increasing friction associated with the growing ice sheet may again cause melting. To the extent that the upper glacier surface temperature depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, this third case introduces the interesting possibility that earlier CO₂ concentrations may be as important for the present-day climate as its current value. We present results of numerical experiments demonstrating how these three kinds of instability can originate and interact with other components of the global climate system to produce variations of the Heinrich-event type. In particular, according to our model the climate system seems more vulnerable to surges during the penultimate interglacial period than in the present one, which may contribute to an explanation of the recent results of the Greenland Ice Core Project.     

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to simulate atmospheric processes ranging from quasi-global to tens of m in scale. Here we employ large-eddy simulation (LES) using the WRF model, with the LES-domain nested within a mesoscale WRF model domain with grid spacing decreasing from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). We simulate real-world conditions in the convective planetary boundary layer over an area of complex terrain. The WRF-LES model results are evaluated against observations collected during the US Department of Energy-supported Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. Comparison of the first- and second-order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function of wind speed shows good agreement between the simulations and observations. One key result is to demonstrate that a systematic methodology needs to be applied to select the grid spacing and refinement ratio used between domains, to avoid having a grid resolution that falls in the grey zone and to minimize artefacts in the WRF-LES model solutions. Furthermore, the WRF-LES model variables show large variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. Analyses of WRF-LES model results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, vary depending on both the location and time of day as well as the distance from the inflow boundaries.     

Molecular and isotopic composition of hydrate-bound and dissolved gases in the southern basin of Lake Baikal, based on an improved headspace gas method

Assessments of the molecular and isotopic composition of hydrate-bound and dissolved gases in pore water were conducted during the multi-phase gas hydrate project (MHP-09) cruise VER09-03 to the southern basin of Lake Baikal in September 2009. To avoid changes in gas composition during core sampling and transport, various headspace methods were investigated aimed at preserving the dissolved gases in pore water. When distilled water was added to the sediment samples, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen decreased because of dissolution into the water and/or microbial consumption. When the headspace was not flushed with inert gases, trace levels of hydrogen and ethylene were detected. The findings suggest that best preparation is achieved by flushing the headspace with helium, and adding a saturated aqueous solution of sodium chloride. This improved headspace method served to examine the molecular and isotopic compositions of gas samples retrieved at several new sites in the southern basin. Methane was the major component, and the proportion of ethane ranged widely from 0.0009 to 1.67?mol% of the total hydrocarbon gases. The proportions of propane and higher hydrocarbons were small or less than their detection limits. The carbon isotope signatures suggest that microbial-sourced methane and ethane were dominant in the Peschanka study area, whereas ethane was of thermogenic origin at all other study sites in the southern basin of Lake Baikal.     

Amplification of the storm surges in shallow waters of the Pertuis Charentais (Bay of Biscay,France)

The Pertuis Charentais are shallow coastal embayments formed by the islands of Oleron and Re in the north-eastern Bay of Biscay. The low-lying coasts of the Pertuis Charentais are susceptible to extensive flooding caused by the storm surges generated in the North Atlantic. Numerical modelling of the 24 October 1999 surge event is performed in the present study in order to elucidate the impact of the wind-wave-tide-surge interactions on the surge propagation in the Pertuis Charentais. A 2D numerical model is constructed to simulate the wave and tide-surge propagation on a high-resolution finite-element grid by using the TELEMAC and TOMAWAC software. The effect of the wave-induced enhancement on the sea surface drag and on the bottom friction is evaluated by using the models of Janssen (1991) and Christoffersen and Jonsson (1985), respectively. The radiation stress is estimated by employing the approach of Longuet-Higgins and Stewart (1964). It is demonstrated that the peak surge in the night on 23–24 October has been amplified inside the Pertuis Charentais by about 20 cm due to the wind-wave interactions with the tide-surge currents. These interactions are strongest at the entrance to the Pertuis Charentais where the sea surface drag coefficient is significantly increased by the wind-wave coupling. The effect of the wave-tide-surge interactions is large enough to be included in the flood forecasting systems of this region.     

Climate catastrophes

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.     

综合数字区域模型和大范围有机废弃产品处理的测试系统的开发

综合数字区域模型在区域可持续发展的任何模型实现中都是不可或缺的,而空间数据基础设施为综合数字区域模型提供了一个可靠的基础。其可以很方便地在地图信息或者直接在地理信息系统(GIS)内形成。这种GIS系统具有开发良好的模型函数,能够集成专家系统,也能被设计全尺度多媒体产品。GIS允许集成不同的信息资源、模型、可视化和分析、各种假设的详尽细节和为诸如自然-社会-经济等的复杂系统提供可选开发方案。一个综合辅助信息系统的结构包括紧密相关的社会-政治、经济(或生产)、自然资源和环境模块。它提供了对于不同区域范围社会生态系统的全面描述,显示了自然和人类资源的重要性。人们在这个研究领域将会谈及自然和社会管理。根据它们的变化层次体系(从全局范围到局部范围)可以描述所有专题,并且考虑在不同尺度上描述的现象的专业特征。超媒体系统原理可以通过链接集成主题来实现。这种系统的日益复杂性使得系统的智能化成为必要,专家系统和神经元网络可以从很复杂并且非常模糊的问题中得出可行的解决方案。现代GIS配有很多设备,对用户来说,这使得用基础地图和互联网获取必要的数据来编制专题图成为可能。数学建模的专业方法具有特殊的重要性,特别是那些旨在追求在区域变换到可持续发展模型时设想的详尽细节的方法。最高级的AIS能作为全尺度的决策支持系统使用。莫斯科国立大学试图实现上述思想,开发了俄罗斯可持续发展信息系统框架,特以俄罗斯南部地区为一案例。该示例一方面作为更大区域即国家的一部分进行描述,另一方面作为一个或多或少、基于资源发展的单元进行描述。也能对区域发展战略和改革措施提出建议。我们已经对所有俄罗斯地区进行了分类,并且指出了不同组(工业、农业等)的最典型代表。将精心设计几个系统的区域分支来描述整个国家的不同地域类型。计算机辅助信息系统提供用户以各种各样传统地图集的计算机的模拟,为决策者对未来的设计和区域发展变量评估等创造了条件。我们正在开发一个大范围有机废弃产品处理的测试GIS系统。其主要目标是为在废弃物储存和掩埋场所的生物降解进行方法研究。其应用包括:存放生活和工业废品的场所的使用和改进(包括工业和农业的场所和废品产生的地方);污水处理设备的建设和重建等。     

CSEM technology as a value driver for hydrocarbon exploration

The use of the controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) method as a risk reduction tool in marine hydrocarbon exploration is gaining increased acceptance in the oil industry. This is related to the ability to map resistivity contrasts in the sub-surface and thus aid the detection of hydrocarbons which are typically more resistive than surrounding rocks. Whereas acoustic (seismic) energy allows for mapping sub-surface structures that may contain hydrocarbons, electromagnetic (EM) energy can often say something about the fluids contained within the structures. Numerous successful CSEM case stories have been published over the past several years. However, there are also quite a few stories about “failure”-cases, although not well documented in the literature. Such “failure”-cases may reflect the lack of understanding of the CSEM technology and how CSEM data can act as a value driver. In order to understand this, it is necessary to handle uncertainties and decisions associated with the technology, These include geological uncertainties, noise models, survey designs, forward modelling parameters, inversion/migration parameters and pre-processing of real data. A proper handling of these uncertainties and decisions will aid in defining and constraining the chance of geologic success and geologic-success-case net present value for prospects prior to drilling wells. As such, the CSEM technology has a significant potential to increase exploration efficiency, if applied correctly.     

Gas seeps in Lake Baikal—detection, distribution, and implications for water column mixing

Echo sounders served to locate a large number of shallow- and deepwater gas seeps at the bottom of all three basins of Lake Baikal during the years 2005 to 2008. A substantial proportion of the shallow gas seeps was located near the delta of the Selenga River, and at the Posolskii uplift. Deepwater gas seeps were recorded at the lake bed both inside and outside of areas where a bottom-simulating reflector was identified in seismic profiles. By monitoring the activity of gas emissions at the gas seeps, times of episodic gas ebullition could be distinguished from times of persistent gas bubble streams. A maximum gas flare height of more than 950 m above the bottom was recorded at the St. Petersburg mud volcano located in the central basin of Lake Baikal. Based on calculations from echo sounder data, the ascent velocity of gas bubbles reached 40 cm/s. In the area of gas seepage, there was a thick near-bottom layer, in which the gradient of water temperature was equal to the adiabatic gradient. This implies complete mixing of the water close to the lake bed, resulting from ascending gas bubbles released at seep sites. Analyses of vertical temperature profiles indicate possibly localized upwelling up to the lake surface when gas emissions are intensive.     

基于GPS观测研究中国东北地区现今地壳形变特征

基于中国东北和俄罗斯远东东南部2012—2017年的GPS观测数据, 利用包含年周期、 半年周期、 线性项和阶跃项的函数模型拟合GPS站坐标时间序列, 得到ITRF2014下的速度场, 并进一步转换到欧亚参考框架下得到相对欧亚板块的速度场。 基于多尺度球面小波方法解算应变率场, 并分析了其空间分布特征, 同时研究了各GPS站对2011年日本东北M_W9.0大地震的震后松弛响应特征和背景形变场特征。 结果表明: ① 若不扣除日本东北大地震的松弛效应, 相对欧亚板块中国东北主体上表现为东南方向运动, 在依兰—伊通断裂和嫩江断裂带之间, 地壳表现为逆时针旋转, 其他区域向东南方向运动, 方向一致性较好, 在敦化—密山断裂东侧速度大小明显增加。 敦化—密山断裂和依兰—伊通断裂两侧拉张量分别为3.96±0.04 mm/a和0.71±0.05 mm/a, 两条断裂的剪切运动不明显。 总体上, 面应变率显示出NW—SE向的拉张和NE—SW向的挤压, 面应变率显示出依兰—伊通断裂南端、 嫩江断裂带北端和俄罗斯远东东南部呈挤压状态。 在依兰—伊通断裂、 敦化—密山断裂南侧以及俄罗斯远东东南部最大剪应变率相对较大。 ② 各GPS测站对2011年日本东北M_W9.0大地震震后松弛的响应整体上表现为东南向运动, 松弛形变量随震中距增加而减小。 松弛效应的面应变率总体上表现为NW—SE向的拉张和NE—SW向的挤压, 面应变率显示出依兰—伊通、 敦化—密山断裂南端、 嫩江断裂带北端以及俄罗斯远东地区具有挤压特征, 其他地区表现为拉张特征。 中国与俄罗斯远东边界南端存在一个明显的最大剪应变率高值区。 ③ 扣除日本东北M_W9.0大地震引起的松弛变形后, 总体上面应变率仍然表现为NW—SE向的拉张和NE—SW向的挤压, 面应变率最大值仍然位于依兰—伊通断裂和敦化—密山断裂南端、 第二松花江断裂带以及俄罗斯远东和中国边界最南段。 在依兰—伊通断裂、 敦化—密山断裂南端, 中国与俄罗斯远东边界南端的最大剪应变率高值区仍然存在, 表明这些地区应变积累较快, 并且一直在持续。     

On the importance of rock thermal conductivity and heat flow density in basin and petroleum system modelling

Basin and petroleum systems are routinely modelled to provide qualitative and quantitative assessments of a hydrocarbon play. The importance of the rock thermal properties and heat flow density in thermal modelling the history of a basin are well-known, but little attention is paid to assumptions of the thermal conductivity, present-day heat flow density and thermal history of basins. Assumed values are often far from measured values when data are available to check parameters, and effective thermal conductivity models prescribed in many basin simulators require improvement. The reconstructed thermal history is often justified by a successful calibration to present-day temperature and vitrinite reflectance data. However, a successful calibration does not guarantee that the reconstruction history is correct. In this paper, we describe the pitfalls in setting the thermal conductivity and heat flow density in basin models and the typical uncertainties in these parameters, and we estimate the consequences by means of a one-dimensional model of the super-deep Tyumen SG-6 well area that benefits from large amounts of reliable input and calibration data. The results show that the entire approach to present-day heat flow evaluations needs to be reassessed. Unreliable heat flow density data along with a lack of measurements of rock thermal properties of cores can undermine the quality of basin and petroleum system modelling.