Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling�CNarayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling?CNarayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75?%) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25?%) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16?%. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57?% of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80?% accuracy (i.e. 89.15?% for IOE model, 89.10?% for LR model and 87.21?% for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling?CNarayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.     

The relationship between geology and rock weathering on the rock instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road corridor, Central Nepal Himalaya

The present study was conducted along the Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding region that is most affected by landslide and related mass-movement phenomena. The main rock types in the study area are limestone, dolomite, slate, phyllite, quartzite and amphibolites of Lesser Himalaya, sandstone, mudstone and conglomerates of Siwaliks and Holocene Deposits. Due to the important role of geology and rock weathering in the instabilities, an attempt has been made to understand the relationship between these phenomena. Consequently, landslides of the road section and its surrounding region have been assessed using remote sensing, Geographical information systems and multiple field visits. A landslide inventory map was prepared and comprising 275 landslides. Nine landslides representing the whole area were selected for detailed studies. Field surveys, integrated with laboratory tests, were used as the main criteria for determining the weathering zones in the landslide area. From the overall study, it is seen that large and complex landslides are related to deep rock weathering followed by the intervention of geological structures as faults, joints and fractures. Rotational types of landslides are observed in highly weathered rocks, where the dip direction of the foliation plane together with the rock weathering plays a principle role. Shallow landslides are developed in the slope covered by residual soil or colluviums. The rock is rather fresh below these covers. Some shallow landslides (rock topples) are related to the attitude of the foliation plane and are generally observed in fresh rocks. Debris slides and debris flows occur in colluviums or residual soil-covered slopes. In few instances, they are also related to the rock fall occurring at higher slopes. The materials from the rock fall are mixed with the colluviums and other materials lying on the slope downhill and flow as debris flow. Rock falls are mainly related to the joint pattern and the slope angle. They are found in less-weathered rocks. From all these, it is concluded that the rock weathering followed by geological structures has prominent role in the rock slope instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding regions.     

Occurrence and chemical composition of the Eoarchean carbonate rocks of the Nulliak supracrustal rocks in the Saglek Block of northeastern Labrador,Canada

The Eoarchean Nulliak supracrustal rocks in the Saglek Block of northeastern Labrador, Canada, contain some of the world's oldest carbonate rocks. This work attempted to reveal the origin of the carbonate rocks and estimate the surface environmental conditions of the early Earth based on their occurrence and geochemistry. They occur together with mafic and ultramafic rocks in Pangertok Inlet and St. John's Harbour South, whereas they are interlayered with pelitic rock layers with quartzofeldspathic mineral assemblages in St. John's Harbour East and Big Island. The geological occurrence suggests that the formers were formed around hydrothermal fields, whereas the latters were deposited near a continental margin. Some carbonate rocks have high SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and Zr contents, indicating that the silicification and involvement of detrital materials influenced their composition; thus, pure carbonate rocks were selected using a combined filter of the SiO₂, TiO_2, Al₂O₃, Zr, and Ba contents. The selected carbonate rocks have positive La, Eu, Gd, Y, U, Pb, and Sr anomalies, negative Nb, Zr, and Hf anomalies, and relatively small enrichment in heavy rare earth elements (HREEs). The La and Y anomalies suggest that they originated from chemical sediments precipitated from seawater. On the other hand, the small HREE-enrichment suggests that REEs were mainly dissolved as REE-carbonate complexes in seawater or that the riverine influxes were dominated by the detritus of Eoarchean continental crusts, presumably composed of HREE-depleted TTG. The U anomaly suggests that uranium was more dissolved than Th as U-bearing carbonate complexes in seawater. The Nulliak carbonate rocks also show a positive correlation between Y and Eu anomaly values, suggesting that the precipitation of iron-oxyhydroxide causing the Y anomaly was more significant near the hydrothermal fields than the continental margin, consistent with an alkaline hydrothermal model.     

A new derivation of the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel variables

First introducing the parabolic coordinates inR ³, we can derive the Kustaanheimo-Stiefel (KS) variables quite simply and naturally. Through this derivation it becomes clearer where and how the additional dimension is introduced and what the bilinear relation means.Paper presented at the 1981 Oberwolfach Conference on Mathematical Methods in Celestial Mechanics.This paper is dedicated to the 60th Birthday of Prof. V. Szebehely.     

The geomagnetic and cosmic-ray storm of May 25/26, 1967

A series of geomagnetic disturbances and cosmic ray variations caused by the McMath plage region 8818 in the latter half of May 1967 were examined. The systematic changes of the geomagnetic disturbances were observed as the relative location between the responsible flares and the earth changed during the half solar rotation period.The storm of May 25/26, 1967 was then studied in great detail on the basis of records from a number of magnetic and cosmic ray observatories. A large asymmetric main phase field in mid-and low-latitude regions (and thus an asymmetric ring current belt) grew rapidly during the first three successive polar magnetic substorms. The cosmic ray intensity variations during the storm consisted of the Forbush decrease and the ring current effect. The Forbush decrease had a marked north-south asymmetry during its developing phase.     

Long-term climate response to stabilized and overshoot anthropogenic forcings beyond the twenty-first century

From multi-ensembles of climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model version 3, global climate changes have been investigated focusing on long-term responses to stabilized anthropogenic forcings. In addition to the standard forcing scenarios for the current international assessment, an overshoot scenario, where radiative forcings are decreased from one stabilized level to another, is also considered. The globally-averaged annual surface air temperature increases during the twenty-first century by 2.58 and 1.56°C for increased forcings under two future scenarios denoted by A1B and B1, respectively. These changes continue but at much slower rates in later centuries under forcings stabilized at year 2100. The overshoot scenario provides a different pathway to the lower B1 level by way of the greater A1B level. This scenario results in a surface climate similar to that in the B1 scenario within 100 years after the forcing reaches the B1 level. Contrasting to the surface changes, responses in the ocean are significantly delayed. It is estimated from the linear response theory that temperature changes under stabilized forcings to a final equilibrium state in the A1B (B1) scenario are factors of 0.3–0.4, 0.9, and 17 (0.3, 0.6, and 11) to changes during the twenty-first century, respectively, for three ocean layers of the surface to 100, 100–500, and 500 m to the bottom. Although responses in the lower ocean layers imply a nonlinear behavior, the ocean temperatures in the overshoot and B1 scenarios are likely to converge in their final equilibrium states.