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41.
To test the potential of heat flux prospecting in active volcanic areas using shallow temperature data taken along vertical
profiles, we carried out two thermal profile surveys, one not far from Yasur cone on Tanna Island, and another inside the
caldera of Ambrym (New Hebrides arc, southwestern Pacific). The basic steady heat flux of internal volcanic origin was determined,
taking into account both conductive and convective heat transfers. At both locations there exists, over small distances, significant
differences in the heat flux. These differences correspond to shallow sources of heat. The use of a network of vertical profiles
allowed: (a) heat flux mapping; (b) location of shallow volcanic heat sources; and (c) observation of the detailed structure
of the heat release at quiescent but active volcanoes.
Received: 18 July 1997 / Accepted: 13 May 1998 相似文献
42.
Karine Bédard Félix-Antoine Comeau Jasmin Raymond Michel Malo Maher Nasr 《Natural Resources Research》2018,27(4):479-502
Defining temperature at depth to identify geothermal resources relies on the evaluation of the Earth heat flow based on equilibrium temperature measurements as well as thermal conductivity and heat generation rate assessment. Such high-quality geothermal data can be sparse over the region of interest. This is the case of the St. Lawrence Lowlands sedimentary basin covering 20,000 km2 to the south of Québec, Canada, and enclosing only three wells up to a depth of 500 m with equilibrium heat flow measurements. However, more than 250 oil and gas exploration wells have been drilled in this area, providing for this study (parce que c'est 93 sinon) 81 locations with bottom-hole temperature up to a depth of 4300 m, however, not at equilibrium. Analyzing these data with respect to the deep geothermal resource potential of this sedimentary basin requires evaluating the thermal conductivity and heat generation rate of its geological units to properly extrapolate temperature downward. This was done by compiling literature and recent thermal conductivity measurements in outcrop and core samples as well as new heat generation rate estimates from spectral gamma ray logs to establish a first thermal assessment of geological units deep down into the basin. The mean thermal conductivity of the thermal units varies from 2.5 to 6.3 W/m·K, with peak values in the basal sandstones, while the heat generation rate varies from 1.6 to 0.3 µW/m3, decreasing from the upper caprocks toward the base of the sequence. After correcting the bottom-hole temperatures for drilling disturbance with the Harrison correction and subsequently for paleoclimate variations, results indicate a mean geothermal gradient of 23.1 °C/km, varying from 14 to 40 °C/km. Evaluating the basin thermal state from oil and gas data is a significant challenge facilitated by an understanding of its thermal properties. 相似文献
43.
44.
Florence Habets Julien Boé Michel Déqué Agnès Ducharne Simon Gascoin Ali Hachour Eric Martin Christian Pagé Eric Sauquet Laurent Terray Dominique Thiéry Ludovic Oudin Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785
This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource. 相似文献
45.
Emmanuel Damien Rivière Michel Pirre Gwenaël Berthet Jean-Baptiste Renard Franck Lefèvre 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2004,48(3):261-282
Two cases of simultaneous nighttime measurements of NO2 and OClO in the winter polar stratosphere are analyzed in order to test our present knowledge of halogen chemistry in the presence of high amount of NO2 at low temperature. Comparisons with Lagrangian model calculations using several hypotheses are performed. First simulations, using the admitted constant rates of chemical reaction, strongly underestimate the measured OClO while the NO2 profiles are correctly reproduced. If uncertainties in actinic fluxes calculations are taken into account, simulation results do not show a significant reduction of the underestimation. A better agreement can be achieved if the formation of unstable isomers of ClONO2 and of BrONO2 occurs in the cold conditions of the polar stratosphere. An approximate value of the branching ratios of the channels leading to ClONO2 and ClOONO, and to BrONO2 and BrOONO, necessary to reproduce both OClO and NO2 is given and discussed. 相似文献
46.
Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO2e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.Policy relevanceThe concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions. 相似文献
47.
The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges
Giacomo Grassi Michel G. J. den Elzen Andries F. Hof Roberto Pilli Sandro Federici 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):873-881
Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions. 相似文献
48.
Elke Stehfest Lex Bouwman Detlef P. van Vuuren Michel G. J. den Elzen Bas Eickhout Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102
Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies. 相似文献
49.
We present observations of ground accelerations recorded at a small array close to the fault during the Düzce earthquake and its early aftershocks. The records show the strong spatial variability of ground acceleration over distances of only a few hundred metres. During the main shock, the peak horizontal acceleration values ranged from 0.3 to about 1.0 g at stations distant of 1.5 km only. We attribute this spatial variability to a fault zone site effect as peak ground acceleration steadily increases as the distance to the fault trace decreases. The spectral ratio between the ground motion recorded near the fault and the one outside the fault zone shows a shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies with increasing peak accelerations. Such an observation suggests a non-linear behaviour of the fault zone due to the strong ground shaking. As much as a 45 per cent reduction in the shear wave velocity is necessary for the observed shifts. The opening of pre-existing cracks throughout the fault zone is the proposed mechanism to account for the observed shear wave reductions. The observation that elastic fault zone properties are soon recovered following episodes of large strains shows that cracks and fissures close rapidly after the strong shaking is over. 相似文献
50.
Recent improvements in both Infra-red spectroscopy and equilibrator techniqueshave allowed to determine, for the first time, pCO2using simultaneously and continuously both the direct and indirect methods in an estuary where pCO2 values range from 500 to 8500 atm and salinity from 0 to 30. Our results show that both methods are in excellent agreement in the wholeestuary (r2 = 0.999, n = 1075, p < 0.0001). Thus, the NBS (US National Bureau of Standards) scale, although inadequate for seawater samples, is appropriate for estuarine waters and can be applied with confidence to calculate pCO2. 相似文献