Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Do Macroalgal Mats Impact Microphytobenthos on Mudflats? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,Comparative Survey,and Large-Scale Manipulation

Eutrophication and species introductions have resulted in increased macroalgal biomass in coastal ecosystems around the globe. Macroalgal mats may compete with microphytobenthos (MPB) for light and nutrients and, due to their position in the canopy, have a negative impact on MPB biomass. We tested this effect by conducting a meta-analysis of prior experiments, as well as a comparative survey, and a macroalgal-removal manipulation in the coastal lagoons of the Virginia Coastal Reserve (VCR) on the eastern shore of Virginia (USA). In all cases, MPB biomass was estimated using benthic chlorophyll as a proxy. While prior individual studies documented impacts of macroalgae, when effect sizes were averaged across studies, there was no consistent effect of macroalgal biomass on MPB biomass. In the VCR, a non-native red macroalga, Gracilaria vermiculophylla, dominates intertidal mats and attains high biomasses at some sites. Nevertheless, MPB biomass was unrelated to macroalgal mass based on a survey of mudflats. Further, when macroalgae were experimentally manipulated on a mudflat using a before and after impact design, there was no change in MPB. Based on the meta-analysis, survey, and manipulation we conducted, macroalgal mats do not have a generalizable effect on MPB, interactions seem context-dependent, and in the VCR, the effects on MPB appear neutral. This finding is important given the significance of MPB in supporting food webs and other estuarine ecosystem functions, as well as the increasing frequency and intensity of macroalgal blooms.     

An orthotropic interface damage model for simulating drying processes in soils

The study of drying process in soils has received an increased attention in the last few years. This is very complex phenomenon that generally leads to the formation and propagation of desiccation cracks in the soil mass. In recent engineering applications, high aspect ratio elements have proved to be well suited to tackle this type of problem using finite elements. However, the modeling of interfaces between materials with orthotropic properties that generally exist in this type of problem using standard (isotropic) constitutive model is very complex and challenging in terms of the mesh generation, leading to very fine meshes that are intensive CPU demanding. A novel orthotropic interface mechanical model based on damage mechanics and capable of dealing with interfaces between materials in which the strength depends on the direction of analysis is proposed in this paper. The complete mathematical formulation is presented together with the algorithm suggested for its numerical implementation. Some simple yet challenging synthetic benchmarks are analyzed to explore the model capabilities. Laboratory tests using different textures at the contact surface between materials were conducted to evaluate the strengths of the interface in different directions. These experiments were then used to validate the proposed model. Finally, the approach is applied to simulate an actual desiccation test involving an orthotropic contact surface. In all the application cases the performance of the model was very satisfactory.     

Mapping fractional landscape soils and vegetation components from Hyperion satellite imagery using an unsupervised machine-learning workflow

An unsupervised machine-learning workflow is proposed for estimating fractional landscape soils and vegetation components from remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery. The workflow is applied to EO-1 Hyperion satellite imagery collected near Ibirací, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The proposed workflow includes subset feature selection, learning, and estimation algorithms. Network training with landscape feature class realizations provide a hypersurface from which to estimate mixtures of soil (e.g. 0.5 exceedance for pixels: 75% clay-rich Nitisols, 15% iron-rich Latosols, and 1% quartz-rich Arenosols) and vegetation (e.g. 0.5 exceedance for pixels: 4% Aspen-like trees, 7% Blackberry-like trees, 0% live grass, and 2% dead grass). The process correctly maps forests and iron-rich Latosols as being coincident with existing drainages, and correctly classifies the clay-rich Nitisols and grasses on the intervening hills. These classifications are independently corroborated visually (Google Earth) and quantitatively (random soil samples and crossplots of field spectra). Some mapping challenges are the underestimation of forest fractions and overestimation of soil fractions where steep valley shadows exist, and the under representation of classified grass in some dry areas of the Hyperion image. These preliminary results provide impetus for future hyperspectral studies involving airborne and satellite sensors with higher signal-to-noise and smaller footprints.     

High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...     

Prehistoric soil and water detention structures (gabarbands) at Phang,Sindh Kohistan,Pakistan: An adaptation to environmental change?

Five gabarbands (dams), components of integrated soil and water conservation systems, were investigated in the arid region of Sindh Kohistan. The dams are associated with two prehistoric Kot Dijian settlements, Phang and Kohtrash (3200–2800 B. C.). The dams were constructed with relatively permeable materials. Three of the dams, South, East, and North, close off water gaps and a strike valley, respectively, to form a detention basin. The West Dam, located on Phang Nai, upstream of the detention basin removed the coarser sediment fraction from the flows. Spring Dam, located in a water gap to the north of the detention basin, acted as a low-head weir to distribute flow from a perennial spring onto the floodplain of Baran Nai, where double-cropping was probably practiced. Faulting eliminated the spring, which had probably supported the Kohtrash site, and led to construction of the detection basin for the purposes of subsurface storage of detained flows. Association of both modern and prehistoric sites with springs suggests that there has not been appreciable climate change in Sindh Kohistan in the last 5000 years. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.