Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment in a dynamic environment: A case study for Lanzhou City,Gansu Province,NW China

This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence (WofE) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.     

Tides in a body librating about a spin–orbit resonance: generalisation of the Darwin–Kaula theory

The Darwin-Kaula theory of bodily tides is intended for celestial bodies rotating without libration. We demonstrate that this theory, in its customary form, is inapplicable to a librating body. Specifically, in the presence of libration in longitude, the actual spectrum of Fourier tidal modes differs from the conventional spectrum rendered by the Darwin–Kaula theory for a nonlibrating celestial object. This necessitates derivation of formulae for the tidal torque and the tidal heating rate, that are applicable under libration. We derive the tidal spectrum for longitudinal forced libration with one and two main frequencies, generalisation to more main frequencies being straightforward. (By main frequencies we understand those emerging due to the triaxiality of the librating body.) Separately, we consider a case of free libration at one frequency (once again, generalisation to more frequencies being straightforward). We also calculate the tidal torque. This torque provides correction to the triaxiality-caused physical libration. Our theory is not self-consistent: we assume that the tidal torque is much smaller than the permanent-triaxiality-caused torque, so the additional libration due to tides is much weaker than the main libration due to the permanent triaxiality. Finally, we calculate the tidal dissipation rate in a body experiencing forced libration at the main mode, or free libration at one frequency, or superimposed forced and free librations.     

Thermophysical properties of Almahata Sitta meteorites (asteroid 2008 TC3) for high‐fidelity entry modeling

Asteroid 2008 TC₃ was characterized in a unique manner prior to impacting Earth's atmosphere, making its October 7, 2008, impact a suitable field test for or validating the application of high‐fidelity re‐entry modeling to asteroid entry. The accurate modeling of the behavior of 2008 TC₃ during its entry in Earth's atmosphere requires detailed information about the thermophysical properties of the asteroid's meteoritic materials at temperatures ranging from room temperature up to the point of ablation (T ~ 1400 K). Here, we present measurements of the thermophysical properties up to these temperatures (in a 1 atm. pressure of argon) for two samples of the Almahata Sitta meteorites from asteroid 2008 TC₃: a thick flat‐faced ureilite suitably shaped for emissivity measurements and a thin flat‐faced EL6 enstatite chondrite suitable for diffusivity measurements. Heat capacity was determined from the elemental composition and density from a 3‐D laser scan of the sample. We find that the thermal conductivity of the enstatite chondrite material decreases more gradually as a function of temperature than expected, while the emissivity of the ureilitic material decreases at a rate of 9.5 × 10^?5 K^?1 above 770 K. The entry scenario is the result of the actual flight path being the boundary to the load the meteorite will be affected with when entering. An accurate heat load prediction depends on the thermophysical properties. Finally, based on these data, the breakup can be calculated accurately leading to a risk assessment for ground damage.     

Seep mounds on the Southern Vøring Plateau (offshore Norway)

Multidisciplinary study of seep-related structures on Southern Vøring Plateau has been performed during several UNESCO/IOC TTR cruises on R/V Professor Logachev. High-resolution sidescan sonar and subbottom profiler data suggest that most of the studied fluid discharge structures have a positive relief at their central part surrounded by depression. Our data shows that the present day fluid activity is concentrated on the top of these “seep mounds”. Number of high hydrocarbon (HC) gas saturated sediment cores and 5 cores with gas hydrate presence have been recovered from these structures. δ¹³C of methane (between −68 and −94.6‰ VPDB) and dry composition of the gas points to its biogenic origin. The sulfate depletion generally occurs within the upper 30–200 cm bsf and usually coincides with an increase of methane concentration. Pore water δ¹⁸O ranges from 0.29 to 1.14‰ showing an overall gradual increase from bottom water values (δ¹⁸O ∼ 0.35‰). Although no obvious evidence of fluid seepage was observed during the TV surveys, coring data revealed a broad distribution of living Pogonophora and bacterial colonies on sea bottom inside seep structures. These evidences point to ongoing fluid activity (continuous seepage of methane) through these structures. From other side, considerable number and variety of chemosynthetic macro fauna with complete absence of living species suggest that present day level of fluid activity is significantly lower than it was in past. Dead and subfossil fauna recovered from various seep sites consist of solemyid (Acharax sp.), thyasirid and vesicomyid (cf. Calyptogena sp.) bivalves belonging to chemosymbiotic families. Significant variations in δ¹³C (−31.6‰ to −59.2‰) and δ¹⁸O (0.42‰ and 6.4‰) of methane-derived carbonates collected from these structures most probably related to changes in gas composition and bottom water temperature between periods of their precipitation. This led us to ideas that: (1) seep activity on the Southern Vøring Plateau was started with large input of the deep thermogenic gas and gradually decries in time with increasing of biogenic constituent; (2) authigenic carbonate precipitation started at the near normal deep sea environments with bottom water temperature around +5 °C and continues with gradual cooling up to negative temperatures recording at present time.     

Extension of the Paraná Basin to offshore Brazil: Implications for coalbed methane evaluation

Coalbed methane (CBM) is a worldwide exploration target of the petroleum industry. In Brazil, the most important coal-bearing succession is associated with the Permian Rio Bonito Formation of the Paraná Basin. The gas-prone areas are located at the southeastern margin of the Paraná Basin and possibly in the offshore region of the northern part of the Pelotas Basin. Coalfields end abruptly at the present day shoreline, a result of rifting of Gondwana and the evolution of the South Atlantic Ocean. All geologic indicators suggest that in pre-rift times the coal seams extended further eastwards, probably now lying deeply buried below the sedimentary succession of the Pelotas Basin. The present paper discusses structural, stratigraphic, seismic and aeromagenetic data that support the preservation of continental crust beneath ocean sediment. If the coal beds had similar lateral extent to known onshore coals, and coal beds extended across the projected extension of the Parana basin, and there was a conservative 5 m of cumulative coal thickness, then a potential methane volume can be estimated for this newly inferred resource. Average onshore coal gas content is 32 scf/ton (1.00 m³/ton). If this is similar in the offshore coal deposits, then the hypothetical methane volume in the offshore area could be in excess of 1.9 × 10¹² scf (56 × 10⁹ m³). Metamorphism from dikes associated with rifting are potential complicating factors in these deposits, and since no borehole reaching the deep-lying strata in the offshore area are available, this is a hypothetical gas resource with a certain level of uncertainty which should be tested in the future by drilling a deep borehole.     

Nitrogen inputs to seventy-four southern New England estuaries: Application of a watershed nitrogen loading model

Excess nitrogen inputs to estuaries have been linked to deteriorating water quality and habitat conditions which in turn have direct and indirect impacts on aquatic organisms. This paper describes the application of a previously verified watershed loading model to estimate total nitrogen loading rates and relative source contributions to 74 small-medium sized embayment-type estuaries in southern New England. The study estuaries exhibited a gradient in nitrogen inputs of a factor of over 7000. On an areal basis, the range represented a gradient of approximately a factor of 140. Therefore, all other factors being equal, the study design is sufficient to evaluate ecological effects conceptually tied to excess nitrogen along a nitrogen gradient. In addition to providing total loading inputs rates to the study estuaries, the model provides an estimate of the relative contribution of the nitrogen sources from each watershed to each associated estuary. Cumulative results of this analysis reveal the following source ranking (means): direct atmospheric deposition (37%), ≈wastewater (36%), >indirect atmospheric deposition (16%) > fertilizer (12%). However, for any particular estuary the relative magnitudes of these source types vary dramatically. Together with scientific evidence on symptoms of eutrophication, the results of this paper can be used to develop empirical pressure-state models to determine critical nitrogen loading limits for the protection of estuarine water quality.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.     

变质作用、板块构造及超级大陆旋回

麻粒岩相超高温变质作用（GUHTM）主要发育于新太古代至寒武纪岩石中;推测在深部较年轻的,特别是新生代造山带岩石中也会有GUHTM存在。岩石中最初出现GUHTM记录意味着产生瞬时极高热流处的地球动力学发生了改变。许多GUHTM带可能发育于类似现代大陆弧后的构造背景中。在较热的地球上,超大陆及其裂解形成的循环组合,尤其是经岩石圈减薄的洋盆卷入到其外翻过程中可能产生比现代太平洋边缘更热的大陆弧后。中温榴辉岩 高压麻粒岩相变质作用（EHPGM）也是最先发现于新太古代岩石记录中,并发育于从元古宙至古生代岩石中。EHPGM带是对GUHTM带的补充,并经常认为是记录了从俯冲至碰撞造山作用的过程。在元古宙岩石记录中的蓝片岩明显记录了与现代俯冲作用相关的低热流梯度。以发育柯石英(±硬柱石)或金刚石为特征的硬柱石蓝片岩和榴辉岩（高压变质作用,HPM）及超高压变质岩（UHPM）主要是在显生宙形成。HPMUHPM记录了显生宙俯冲碰撞造山带早期碰撞过程中的低热流梯度及陆壳的深俯冲作用。尽管与直觉不同,在超级大陆聚敛期（Wilson旋回洋盆打开和关闭）的大陆地块增生过程,许多HPMUHPM带看来确实是通过小洋盆关闭而发育起来的,反映双重热体制的双重变质带仅发育于新太古代以来的岩石记录中。双重热体制是现代板块构造的特点,而双重变质作用则是板块构造在岩石记录中的特征性标志。尽管构造样式很可能不同,新太古代以来GUHTM和EHPGM带的发育证明“元古宙板块构造体制”的开始。以冷俯冲和大陆地壳深俯冲至地幔,以及其中的部分又从深达300 km处发生折返为标志,“元古宙板块构造体制”在新元古代进化为“现代板块构造体制”,这个转变可由岩石中的HPMUHPM证明。记录这种极端条件的变质带年龄是不一致的,而变质作用发生时间与各大陆岩石圈聚合到超级克拉通（如Superia/Sclavia）或超级大陆（如Nuna (Columbia), Rodinia, Gondwana, 和Pangea）的时间却是一致的。