An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Ion composition and chemistry in the coma of Comet 1P/Halley—A comparison between Giotto's Ion Mass Spectrometer and our ion-chemical network

In order to understand the cometary plasma environment it is important to track the closely linked chemical reactions that dominate ion evolution. We used a coupled MHD ion-chemistry model to analyze previously unpublished Giotto High Intensity Ion Mass Spectrometer (HIS-IMS) data. In this way we study the major species, but we also try to match some minor species like the CH_x and the NH_x groups. Crucial for this match is the model used for the electrons since they are important for ion-electron recombination. To further improve our results we included an enhanced density of supersonic electrons in the ion pile-up region which increases the local electron impact ionization. In this paper we discuss the results for the following important ions: C⁺, CH⁺, CH⁺₂, CH⁺₃, N⁺, NH⁺, NH⁺₂, NH⁺₃, NH⁺₄, O⁺, OH⁺, H₂O⁺, H₃O⁺, CO⁺, HCO⁺, H₃CO⁺, and CH₃OH⁺₂. We also address the inner shock which is very distinctive in our MHD model as well as in the IMS data. It is located just inside the contact surface at approximately 4550 km. Comparisons of the ion bulk flow directions and velocities from our MHD model with the data measured by the HIS-IMS give indication for a solar wind magnetic field direction different from the standard Parker angle at Halley's position. Our ion-chemical network model results are in a good agreement with the experimental data. In order to achieve the presented results we included an additional short lived inner source for the C⁺, CH⁺, and CH⁺₂ ions. Furthermore we performed our simulations with two different production rates to better match the measurements which is an indication for a change and/or an asymmetric pattern (e.g. jets) in the production rate during Giotto's fly-by at Halley's comet.     

ALMA and asteroid science

When the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) is completed, it will synthesize angular resolution as fine as 5 milliarcseconds. With such resolution and ALMA's large number of stations and collecting area, it will be possible to rapidly map the shapes, large-scale surface features, and surface temperature distributions of the 700 largest objects in the main asteroid belt and the hundred largest Jupiter Trojans. Such information would provide great insights into the dynamics and history of the asteroid belt, and potentially determine the surface compositions of otherwise spectrally ambiguous objects.     

A survey of Karin cluster asteroids with the Spitzer Space Telescope

The Karin cluster is one of the youngest known families of main-belt asteroids, dating back to a collisional event only 5.8±0.2 Myr ago. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope we have photometrically sampled the thermal continua (3.5-22 μm) of 17 Karin cluster asteroids of different sizes, down to the smallest members discovered so far, in order to make the first direct measurements of their sizes and albedos and study the physical properties of their surfaces. Our targets are also amongst the smallest main-belt asteroids observed to date in the mid-infrared. The derived diameters range from 17.3 km for 832 Karin to 1.5 km for 75176, with typical uncertainties of 10%. The mean albedo is pv=0.215±0.015, compared to 0.20±0.07 for 832 Karin itself (for H=11.2±0.3), consistent with the view that the Karin asteroids are closely related physically as well as dynamically. The albedo distribution (0.12?pv?0.32) is consistent with the range associated with S-type asteroids but the variation from one object to another appears to be significant. Contrary to the case for near-Earth asteroids, our data show no evidence of an albedo dependence on size. However, the mean albedo is lower than expected for young, fresh “S-type” surfaces, suggesting that space weathering can darken main-belt asteroid surfaces on very short timescales. Our data are also suggestive of a connection between surface roughness and albedo, which may reflect rejuvenation of weathered surfaces by impact gardening. While the available data allow only estimates of lower limits for thermal inertia, we find no evidence for the relatively high values of thermal inertia reported for some similarly sized near-Earth asteroids. Our results constitute the first observational confirmation of the legitimacy of assumptions made in recent modeling of the formation of the Karin cluster via a single catastrophic collision 5.8±0.2 Myr ago.     

Age and metallicity of compact stellar systems in Virgo and Fornax

From high signal-to-noise ratio GMOS-N and AAOmega spectra, we have measured line-strength indices in the Lick/IDS system for several luminous and spatially dispersed compact stellar systems (CSSs) located in the Virgo and Fornax galaxy clusters. We estimate their [α/Fe] ratios, ages and metallicities using a simple (single-burst) stellar population model. We confirm that the Virgo core region luminous CSSs (     ) contain ancient stellar populations with subsolar total metallicities, suggesting that they comprise the bright tail of M87's GC distribution. The two Virgo intracluster globular clusters have ages and metallicities consistent with the cluster core CSSs. Two Fornax luminous CSSs also have ancient stellar populations but are at the upper end of the Virgo CSS metallicity range, while the third (UCD3) appears to be relatively young, metal-rich and with a core + halo radial profile. Our results suggest that Fornax may contain an extra population of luminous CSSs formed more recently than the ancient GC-like systems found in both clusters.     

The Imperial IRAS-FSC Redshift Catalogue

We present a new catalogue, the Imperial IRAS -FSC Redshift Catalogue (IIFSCz), of 60 303 galaxies selected at 60 μm from the IRAS Faint Source Catalogue (FSC). The IIFSCz consists of accurate position, optical, near-infrared and/or radio identifications, spectroscopic redshift (if available) or photometric redshift (if possible), predicted far-infrared (FIR) and submillimetre (submm) fluxes ranging from 12 to 1380 μm based upon the best-fitting infrared template. About 55 per cent of the galaxies in the IIFSCz have spectroscopic redshifts, and a further 20 per cent have photometric redshifts obtained through either the training set or the template-fitting method. For S(60) > 0.36 Jy, the 90 per cent completeness limit of the FSC, 90 per cent of the sources have either spectroscopic or photometric redshifts. Scientific applications of the IIFSCz include validation of current and forthcoming infrared and submm/mm surveys such as AKARI , Planck and Herschel , follow-up studies of rare source populations, large-scale structure and galaxy bias, local multiwavelength luminosity functions and source counts. The catalogue is publicly available at http://astro.imperial.ac.uk/~mrr/fss/ .