Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Petrology and origin of amoeboid olivine aggregates in CR chondrites

Abstract— Amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs) are irregularly shaped, fine‐grained aggregates of olivine and Ca, Al‐rich minerals and are important primitive components of CR chondrites. The AOAs in CR chondrites contain FeNi metal, and some AOAs contain Mn‐rich forsterite with up to 0.7 MnO and Mn:Fe ratios greater than one. Additionally, AOAs in the CR chondrites do not contain secondary phases (nepheline and fayalitic olivine) that are found in AOAs in some CV chondrites. The AOAs in CR chondrites record a complex petrogenetic history that included nebular gas‐solid condensation, reaction of minerals with the nebular gas, small degrees of melting, and sintering of the assemblage. A condensation origin for the Mn‐rich forsterite is proposed. The Mn‐rich forsterite found in IDPs, unequilibrated ordinary chondrite matrix, and AOAs in CR chondrites may have had a similar origin. A type A calcium, aluminum‐rich inclusion (CAI) with an AOA attached to its Wark‐Lovering rim is also described. This discovery reveals a temporal relationship between AOAs and type A inclusions. Additionally, a thin layer of forsterite is present as part of the Wark‐Lovering rim, revealing the crystallization of olivine at the end stages of Wark‐Lovering rim formation. The Ca, Al‐rich nodules in the AOAs may be petrogenetically related to the Ca, Al‐rich minerals in Wark‐Lovering rims on type A CAIs. AOAs are chondrite components that condensed during the final stage of Wark‐Lovering rim formation but, in general, were temporally, spatially, or kinetically isolated from reacting with the nebula vapor during condensation of the lower temperature minerals that were commonly present as chondrule precursors.     

Photochemistry of nitrogen in the Martian atmosphere

Models are developed for the photochemistry of a CO₂H₂ON₂ atmosphere on Mars and estimates are given for the concentrations of N, NO, NO₂, NO₃, N₂O₅, HNO₂, HNO₃, and N₂O as a function of altitude. Nitric oxide is the most abundant form of odd nitrogen, present with a mixing ratio relative to CO₂ of order 10^?8. Deposition rates for nitrite and nitrate minerals could be as large as 3× 10⁵ N equivalent atoms cm^?2 sec^?1 under present conditions and may have been higher in the past.     

Petrologic, isotopic, and radiometric age constraints on the origin and tectonic history of the Malino Metamorphic Complex, NW Sulawesi, Indonesia

The Malino Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is located at the western end of the north arm of Sulawesi. It consists of mica schists and gneisses (derived from proximal turbidite and granitoid protoliths), with intercalations of greenschist, amphibolite, marble, and quartzite, forming an E-W elongated dome-like structure bounded on all sides by faults. The age of the MMC is constrained between Devonian and Early Carboniferous. This Paleozoic age, the presence of Archean and Proterozoic inherited zircons, and the isotopic signature of the mica schists and gneisses indicate that the terrane was derived from the New Guinea-Australian margin of Gondwana. Similarities with basement rocks in the Bird’s Head suggests a common origin. Greenschists forming a discontinuous selvage (metamorphic carapace) around the complex were derived from adjacent autochthonous Paleogene formations. The rocks of the MMC show a Barrovian-type progression from greenschist through epidote-amphibolite to amphibolite facies. P–T estimations suggest a depth of burial of up to 27–30 km. K/Ar and 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages of 23–11 Ma, and a 7 Ma age for unconformably overlying volcanic rocks, indicate that the complex was exhumed during the Miocene. Two tectonic scenarios are considered: 1. the continental fragment docked with Sulawesi during the Mesozoic and was exhumed as a metamorphic core complex during the Miocene; 2. it was subducted beneath the north arm during the late Oligocene and then rapidly returned back to the surface.     

Sources and sinks for atmospheric H2: A current analysis with projections for the influence of anthropogenic activity

Oxidation of CH₄ provides the major source for atmospheric H₂ which is removed mainly by reaction with OH. Biological activity at the Earth's surface appears to represent at most a minor sink for H₂. Anthropogenic activity is a significant source for both H₂ and CO in the present atmosphere and may be expected to exert a growing influence in the future. Models are presented which suggest a rise in the mixing ratio of H₂ from its present value of 5.6 × 10^?7 to about 1.8 × 10^?6 by the year 2100. The mixing ratio of CO should grow from 9.7 × 10^?8 to 2.3 × 10^?7 over the same time period and there should be a rise in CH₄ by about a factor of 1.5 associated with anthropogenically induced reductions in tropospheric OH.     

Sensitivity of crop yields and land resource potential to climatic change in Ontario,Canada

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are expected to contribute to a global warming. This paper examines the potential implications of a climatic change corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ on crop production opportunities throughout Ontario, a major food producing region in Canada. The climate is projected to become warmer and drier, but the extent of these shifts are expected to vary from region to region within Ontario. The effect of this altered climate on crop yields and the area of land capable of supporting specific crops varies according to region, soil quality and crop type. Most notable are the enhanced opportunities for grains and oilseeds in the northern regions, and the diminished production prospects for most crops in the most southerly parts of Ontario.     

Stream Restoration Performance and Its Contribution to the Chesapeake Bay TMDL: Challenges Posed by Climate Change in Urban Areas

In large part driven by total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandates, the restoration community in the Chesapeake Bay region has been implementing novel best management practices (BMPs) and stream restoration designs in urban areas, such as regenerative stream/stormwater conveyance (RSC) structures and stream-wetland complexes (SWCs). However, the nutrient and sediment reduction efficiencies of these novel designs are virtually unknown, and the possibility of increasing riverine flow in the Chesapeake Bay watershed associated with climate change this century necessitates an evaluation of their performance to develop and utilize those that optimize reductions in nutrient and sediment fluxes. We compare pre- and post-construction loads (total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended solids (TSS)) from RSCs (i.e., upland BMPs) and a SWC (i.e., stream restoration) constructed at the outflow of a highly developed watershed in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of Maryland. The largest of the two RSCs performed best in relation to expected nutrient and sediment reductions because of superior water retention capability. By the length of river reach restored, the SWC attained from 79 to 88% of its N reduction TMDL goal, but only 19 to 23 and 2.7 to 3.1% for TP and TSS, respectively; by watershed area, % attainments of TMDL goals were much lower. Results indicate that SWCs have the potential to curtail N loading from developed catchments, but additional water quality benefits may be limited. Climate change projections indicate that there will be an increased frequency of larger-volume storms that will result in an increase in stormflow runoff from urban areas, and increased pollutant loads will likely curtail potential gains made by efforts to achieve TMDL goals. Given the large-scale implementation of BMPs currently underway to accommodate the Chesapeake Bay TMDL, the restoration community needs to adopt a concerted strategy of building climate resilience into many types of urban BMPs to help attain and maintain loads at TMDL levels in anticipation of a progressively wetter climate throughout this century.     

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.