Strategic forum : Soviet seapower — a new kind of navy

The purpose of this article is to draw attention to a change in the trend of Soviet naval developments. This change stems from a combination of: (1) a sharp increase in the allocation of resources to naval shipbuilding; (2) a marked rise in the navy's political influence; and (3) a new approach to the role of seapower in Soviet policy. Professor MccGwire, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, USA, believes that both the nature and the significance of the change are being obscured by the fact that for the past decade naval leaders in the West have been talking of ‘a Soviet naval build-up’, and continue to use the same language to describe the very different present situation. There is no general awareness, even within naval circles, that we are now facing a significant change in established trends. This article draws on a longer and more general article.¹     

Phosphorus Speciation in Stream Bed Sediments from an Agricultural Watershed: Solid-Phase Associations and Sorption Behavior

The sorption behavior and solid-phase associations of phosphorus (P) in fine-grained sediments (<63 μm) from two upstream tributaries and one downstream main stem site of the Spoon River in west-central Illinois were characterized to better understand phosphorus bioavailability in this agriculturally dominated watershed. The P sorption affinities, as indicated by linear distribution coefficients (K _d), of all sediments were 330–5,150 L/kg, and negatively correlated with equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC_o) values, which ranged between 0.2 and 2.2 μM. pH values measured at the conclusion of the sorption experiments varied only slightly (7.45–8.10) but were nonetheless strongly positively correlated to EPC_o values, and negatively correlated to K _d values, suggesting the importance of pH to the observed sorption behavior. K _d values were generally lower and EPC_o values higher at the main stem site than at the upstream tributary sites, suggesting dissolved reactive P (DRP) bioavailability (specifically orthophosphate) increased downstream. The solid phase associations of P were operationally assessed with the streamlined SEDEX (sedimentary extraction) procedure, and most sediment P (≥50%) was released during the step designed to determine iron oxide–associated P. On average, 70–90% of the total sediment P pool was potentially bioavailable, as estimated by the sum of the iron oxide-, authigenic carbonate-, and organic-associated P fractions. Considerable calcium was also extracted from some sediments during the step designed to specifically remove iron oxide–associated P. It is hypothesized that the severe drought conditions that persisted between April and October, 2005 allowed authigenic carbonates (perhaps partly amorphous) to accumulate, and that these carbonates dissolved during the iron oxide extraction step. The extensive benthic algal populations also present may have aided carbonate precipitation, which under more normal hydrologic conditions would be periodically flushed downstream and replaced by fresh sediment. This suggests antecedent hydrologic conditions played a dominant role in the P sorption and solid phase associations identified.     

THE KRAMER CREEK,COLORADO METEORITE: A NEW L4 CHONDRITE

The Kramer Creek, Colorado, chondrite was found in 1966 and identified as a meteorite in 1972. Bulk chemical analysis, particularly the total iron content (20.36%) and the ratio of Fe_total/SiO₂ (0.52), as well as the compositions of olivine (Fa_21.7) and orthopyroxene (Fs_18.3) place the meteorite into the L-group of chondrites. The well-defined chondritic texture of the meteorite, the presence of igneous glass in the chondrules and of low-Ca clinopyroxene, as well as the slight variations in FeO contents of olivine (2.4% MD) and orthopyroxene (5.6% MD) indicate that the chondrite belongs to the type 4 petrologic class.     

Ultraviolet spectroscopy of Asteroid (4) Vesta

We report a comprehensive review of the UV–visible spectrum and rotational lightcurve of Vesta combining new observations by Hubble Space Telescope and Swift Gamma-ray Burst Observatory with archival International Ultraviolet Explorer observations. The geometric albedos of Vesta from 220 nm to 953 nm are derived by carefully comparing these observations from various instruments at different times and observing geometries. Vesta has a rotationally averaged geometric albedo of 0.09 at 250 nm, 0.14 at 300 nm, 0.26 at 373 nm, 0.38 at 673 nm, and 0.30 at 950 nm. The linear spectral slope as measured between 240 and 320 nm in the ultraviolet displays a sharp minimum near a sub-Earth longitude of 20°, and maximum in the eastern hemisphere. This is consistent with the longitudinal distribution of the spectral slope in the visible wavelength. The photometric uncertainty in the ultraviolet is ∼20%, and in the visible wavelengths it is better than 10%. The amplitude of Vesta’s rotational lightcurves is ∼10% throughout the range of wavelengths we observed, but is smaller at 950 nm (∼6%) near the 1-μm band center. Contrary to earlier reports, we found no evidence for any difference between the phasing of the ultraviolet and visible/near-infrared lightcurves with respect to sub-Earth longitude. Vesta’s average spectrum between 220 and 950 nm can well be described by measured reflectance spectra of fine particle howardite-like materials of basaltic achondrite meteorites. Combining this with the in-phase behavior of the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared lightcurves, and the spectral slopes with respect to the rotational phase, we conclude that there is no global ultraviolet/visible reversal on Vesta. Consequently, this implies a lack of global space weathering on Vesta, as previously inferred from visible–near-infrared data.     

Toward critical spatial thinking in the social sciences and humanities

The integration of geographically referenced information into the conceptual frameworks and applied uses of the social sciences and humanities has been an ongoing process over the past few centuries. It has gained momentum in recent decades with advances in technologies for computation and visualization and with the arrival of new data sources. This article begins with an overview of this transition, and argues that the spatial integration of information resources and the cross-disciplinary sharing of analysis and representation methodologies are important forces for the integration of scientific and artistic expression, and that they draw on core concepts in spatial (and spatio-temporal) thinking. We do not suggest that this is akin to prior concepts of unified knowledge systems, but we do maintain that the boundaries to knowledge transfer are disintegrating and that our abilities in problem solving for purposes of artistic expression and scientific development are enhanced through spatial perspectives. Moreover, approaches to education at all levels must recognize the need to impart proficiency in the critical and efficient application of these fundamental spatial concepts, if students and researchers are to make use of expanding access to a broadening range of spatialized information and data processing technologies.     

Experimental study of igneous and sedimentary apatite dissolution: Control of pH, distance from equilibrium, and temperature on dissolution rates

Apatite dissolution experiments were conducted using both a fluidized bed and stirred tank reactor over a range of pH, temperature, solution saturation state, and on non-carbonated and carbonated apatite compositions: igneous fluorapatite (FAP) and sedimentary carbonate fluorapatite (CFA), respectively. From 2 <pH <6, the rate of release from dissolution of all apatite components [calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and fluoride (F)] increased with decreasing pH for FAP. From 6 < pH < 8.5, the FAP dissolution rate is pH independent. Measuring apatite dissolution rates at pH > 8.5 were not possible due to detection limits of the analytical techniques used in this study and the high insolubility of FAP. For the CFA compositions studied, the dissolution rate decreased with increasing pH from 4 < pH < 7. During early stages of the dissolution reaction for both FAP and CFA, mineral components were released in non-stoichiometric ratios with reacted solution ratios of dissolved Ca:P and Ca:F being greater than mineral stoichiometric ratios, suggesting that Ca was preferentially released compared to P and F from the mineral structure during the early stages of dissolution. An increase in reacted solution pH accompanies this early elevated release of Ca. As the dissolution reaction proceeded to steady state, dissolution became congruent. When normalized to BET measured surface area, FAP dissolved faster from 4 < pH < 7 compared to CFA. The apparent Arrhenius activation energy (E_a) of FAP dissolution over the temperature range of 25-55°C at pH = 3.0, I = 0.1, and pCO₂ = 0 is 8.3 ± 0.2 kcal mol⁻¹. Both the apparent exchange of solution H⁺ for solid-bound Ca at low pH in the early stage of dissolution and the E_a of dissolution suggest a surface and not a diffusion controlled dissolution reaction for FAP and CFA. The degree of undersaturation of the solution, ΔG_R, with respect to FAP was important in determining the dissolution rate. At pH = 3.0, I = 0.1, and pCO₂ = 0, the dissolution rate of FAP was ∼ 5× greater in the far-from-equilibrium region compared to the near-equilibrium slope region.A simple apatite weathering model incorporating the experimental results from this study was constructed, and numerical calculations suggest that during the Phanerozoic both the surface area of igneous rock available for weathering and the average global temperature were important factors in determining the P weathering flux from apatite dissolution. It is possible that elevated global temperatures coupled with relatively high surface area of igneous rock during the early- to mid-Paleozoic resulted in elevated P weathering fluxes, which along with climatic evolutionary pressures of the Neoproterozoic, facilitated the radiation of multicellular organisms, large-scale phosphorite deposition, and abundance of calcium phosphate shelled organisms during the early Cambrian.     

Mapping block-and-ash flow hazards based on Titan 2D simulations: a case study from Mt. Taranaki,NZ

Numerical models for simulation of mass flows are typically focussed upon accurately predicting the paths, travel times and inundation from a single flow or collapse event. When considering catchment-based hazards from a volcano, this is complicated by often being faced with several possible scenarios. Over the last 800 years at Mt. Taranaki/Egmont, a number of dome growth and collapse events have resulted in the genesis and emplacement of block-and-ash flows (BAFs). Each BAF was directed northwestward by a breach in the crater rim. The latest dome collapse events in the AD 1880s and AD 1755 inundated the northwestern flank and had run-out lengths 10 km from source. Future activity of this type could have a devastating effect on the Taranaki region’s communities, infrastructure and economy. Hazard planning has involved constructing volcanic hazard maps based upon the areas inundated by past volcanic flows, with little consideration of present-day topography. Here, a numerical geophysical mass flow modelling approach is used to forecast the hazards of future comparable BAF events on NW Mt. Taranaki. The Titan2D programme encompasses a “shallow water”, continuum solution-based, granular flow model. Flow mechanical properties needed for this approach include estimates of internal and basal friction as well as the physical dimensions of the initial collapse. Before this model can be applied to Taranaki BAFs, the input parameters must be calibrated by simulating a range of past collapse events. By using AD 1860 and AD 1755 scenarios, initial collapse volumes can be well constrained and internal and basal friction angles can be evaluated through an iterative approach from previous run-out lengths. A range of possible input parameters was, therefore, determined to produce a suite of potentially inundated areas under present-day terrain. A suite of 10 forecasts from a uniformly distributed range were combined to create a map of relative probabilities of inundation by future BAF events. These results were combined in a GIS package to produce hazard zones related to user-specified hazard thresholds. Using these input parameter constraints, future hazard forecasts for this scale and type of event can also take into account changing summit and topographic configurations following future eruptive or collapse events.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.