Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Compositions,sources and depositional environments of organic matter from the Middle Jurassic clays of Poland

The comprehensive biomarker characteristics from previously undescribed Middle Jurassic clays of Poland are presented. The molecular composition of the organic matter (OM) derived from clays of Aalenian to Callovian age has not changed significantly through time. High relative concentrations of many biomarkers typical for terrestrial material suggest a distinct dominance of OM derived from land plants. Increasing concentrations of C₂₉-diaster-13(17)-enes towards the northern part of the basin indicate an increase in terrestrial input. This terrestrial material would have originated from the enhanced transport of organic matter from land situated at the northern bank of the basin, i.e., the Fennoscandian Shield. The organic matter was deposited in an oxic to suboxic environment, as indicated by relatively low concentrations of C₃₃–C₃₅ homohopanes, moderate to high Pr/Ph ratio values, an absence of compounds characteristic for anoxia and water column stratification, such as isorenieratane, aryl isoprenoids and gammacerane, as well as common benthic fauna and burrows. δ¹⁸O measurements from calcitic rostra of belemnites suggest that the mean value of the Middle Jurassic sea-water temperature of the Polish Basin was 13.1 °C. It is suggested that this mirrored the temperature of the lower water column because belemnites are considered here to be necto-benthic. The organic matter from the Middle Jurassic basin of Poland is immature. This is clearly indicated by a large concentration of biomarkers with the biogenic configurations, such as ββ-hopanes, hop-13(18)-enes, hop-17(21)-enes, diasterenes and sterenes. The identification of preserved, unaltered biomolecules like ferruginol, 6,7-dehydroferruginol and sugiol in Protopodocarpoxylon wood samples from these sediments present particularly strong evidence for the presence of immature OM in the Middle Jurassic sediments. Moreover, the occurrence of these polar diterpenoids is important due to the fact that they are definitely the oldest known natural products detected in geological samples.     

Experiments on silicate melt immiscibility in the system Fe2SiO4–KAlSi3O8–SiO2–CaO–MgO–TiO2–P2O5 and implications for natural magmas

The effect of CaO and MgO, with or without TiO₂ and P₂O₅, on the two-melt field in the simplified system Fe₂SiO₄–KAlSi₃O₈–SiO₂ has been experimentally determined at 1,050°–1,240°C, 400 MPa. Despite the suppressing effect of MgO, CaO, and pressure on silicate melt immiscibility, our experiments show that this process is still viable at mid-crustal pressures when small amounts (0.6–2.0 wt%) of P₂O₅ and TiO₂ are present. Our data stress that the major element partition coefficients between the two melts are highly correlated with the degree of polymerisation (nbo/t) of the SiO₂-rich melt, whatever temperature, pressure, or exact composition. Experimental immiscible melt compositions in natural systems at 0.1 MPa from the literature (lunar and tholeiitic basalts) plot on similar but distinct curves compared to the simplified system. These relations between melt polymerisation and partition coefficients, which hold for a large range of compositions and fO₂, are extended to various volcanic and plutonic rocks. This analysis strengthens the proposal that silicate melt immiscibility can be important in volcanic rocks of various compositions (from tholeiitic basalts to lamprophyres). However, the majority of proposed immiscible compositions in plutonic rocks are at least not coexisting melts, but may have suffered accumulation of early crystallized minerals.     

Intrusion versus inversion—a 3D density model of the southern rim of the Northwest German Basin

An unsolved problem of regional importance for both the evolution and structure of the Northwest German Basin is the existence or non-existence of the so-called Bramsche Massif. Explaining the nature of this massif and the cause of a related strong, positive Bouguer anomaly (Bramsche Anomaly) is critical. In the study described here, we tested an existing “intrusion model” against a newer “inversion model” in the southern Northwest German Basin. In the intrusion model, the strongly-positive Bouguer anomaly represents the gravity effect of an intrusion at depths between 6 and 10 km. More recent interpretations invoke tectonic inversion rather than intrusion to explain increased burial and the low level of hydrocarbon maturity found in boreholes. We tested these different interpretations by constructing 3D forward density models to 15 km depth. The intrusion model was updated and adjusted to incorporate recent data and we also modelled pre-Zechstein structures using different scenarios. The final model has a very good fit between measured and modelled gravity fields. Based on currently available seismic and structural models, as well as borehole density measurements, we show that the positive Bouguer anomaly cannot be modeled without a high-density, intrusive-like body at depth. However, further in-sight into the crustal structures of the Bramsche region requires more detailed investigations. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

New palaeomagnetic data from Central Iran and a Triassic palaeoreconstruction

New pole positions for Triassic and Cretaceous times have been obtained from volcanic and sedimentary sequences in Central Iran. These new results confirm the general trend of the Apparent Polar Wander Path (APWP) of the Central-East-Iran microplate (CEIM) from the Triassic through the Tertiary as published by Soffel and Förster (1983, 1984). Two new palaeopoles for the Triassic of the CEIM have been obtained; limestones and tuffs from the Nakhlak region yield a mean direction of 094.0°/25.0°, N=12, k=4.1,α ₉₅=24.7°, after bedding correction, corresponding to a palaeopole position of 310.8°E; 3.9°S, and volcanic rocks from the Sirjan regions yield a mean direction of 114.5°/35.1°, N=44, k=45.9,α ₉₅=3.2° after bedding correction and a palaeopole position of 295.8°E; 10.3°N. Combining these with the two previously published results yields a new palaeopole position of 317.5°E; 12.7°N, for the Triassic of the CEIM, thus confirming that large counterclockwise rotations of the CEIM have occurred since the Triassic time. New results have also been obtained from Cretaceous limestones from the Saghand region of the CEIM. The mean direction of 340.7°/26.3°, N=33, k=44.3,α ₉₅=3.8°, and the corresponding palaeopole position of 283.1°E; 64.4°N, is in agreement with previously determined Cretaceous palaeopole positions of the CEIM. Furthermore, results have also been obtained from Triassic dolomite, limestone, sandstone and siltstone from the Natanz region, which is located to the west of the CEIM. A total of 161 specimens from 44 cores taken at five sites gave a mean direction of the five sites at 033.3°/25.1°, N=5, k=69.0,α ₉₅=9.3° and a palaeopole position of 167.2°E; 53.7°N. They pass the positive fold test of McElhinny (1964) on the level of 99% confidence. This pole position is in fairly good agreement with the mean Triassic pole position of the Turan Plate (149°E; 49°N). It indicates that the area of Natanz has not undergone the large counterclockwise rotation relative to the Turan plate since the Triassic, which has been shown for the CEIM. A Triassic palaeogeographic reconstruction of Iran, Arabia (Gondwana) and the Turan Plate (Eurasia) is also presented.     

Settling and compaction of chromite cumulates employing a centrifuging piston cylinder and application to layered mafic intrusions

The time scales and mechanics of gravitationally driven crystal settling and compaction is investigated through high temperature (1,280–1,500 °C) centrifuge-assisted experiments on a chromite-basalt melt system at 100–1,500g (0.5 GPa). Subsequently, the feasibility of this process for the formation of dense chromite cumulate layers in large layered mafic intrusions (LMIs) is assessed. Centrifugation leads to a single cumulate layer formed at the gravitational bottom of the capsule. The experimentally observed mechanical settling velocity of a suspension of ~24 vol% chromite is calculated to be about half (~0.53) of the Stokes settling velocity, with a sedimentation exponent n of 2.35 (3). Gravitational settling leads to an orthocumulate layer with a porosity of 0.52 (all porosities as fraction). Formation times for such a layer from a magma with initial chromite contents of 0.1–1 vol% are 140–3.5 days, equal to a growth rate of 0.007–0.3 m/day for grain sizes of 1–2 mm. More compacted chromite layers form with increasing centrifugation time and acceleration through chemical compaction: An increase of grain contact areas and grain sizes together with a decrease in porosity is best explained by pressure dissolution at grain contacts, reprecipitation and grain growth into the intergranular space and a concomitant expulsion of intergranular melt. The relation between the porosity in the cumulate pile and effective pressure integrated over time (Δρ · h · a · t) is best fit with a logarithmic function, in fact confirming that a (pressure) dissolution–reprecipitation process is the dominant mechanism of compaction. The experimentally derived equation allows calculating compaction times: 70–80 % chromite at the bottom of a 1-m-thick chromite layer are reached after 9–250 years, whereas equivalent compaction times are 0.2–0.9 years for olivine (both for 2 mm grain size). The experiments allow to determine the bulk viscosities of chromite and olivine cumulates to be of magnitude 10⁹ Pa s, much lower than previously reported. As long as melt escape from the compacting cumulate remains homogeneous, fluidization does not play any role; however, channelized melt flow may lead to suspension and upward movement of cumulate crystals. In LMIs, chromitite layers are typically part of a sequence with layers of mafic minerals, compaction occurs under the additional weight of the overlying layers and can be achieved in a few years to decades.     

The composition of liquids coexisting with dense hydrous magnesium silicates at 11-13.5 GPa and the endpoints of the solidi in the MgO-SiO2-H2O system

High-pressure liquids in the MgO-SiO₂-H₂O (MSH) system have been investigated at 11 and 13.5 GPa and between 1000 and 1350 °C. A bulk composition more magnesian than the tie-line forsterite-H₂O was employed for the study. Rocking multi-anvil experiments were combined with a diamond trap set-up. After termination of the experiments, the liquid trapped in the diamond layer was analysed by laser ablation ICP-MS using the ‘freezing’ technique. At 11 GPa, liquids coexist with one or two of phase A, clinohumite, chondrodite, and forsterite. A marked discontinuity in the evolution of liquid compositions near 1100 °C is observed at 11 GPa. A step of ∼13 wt% H₂O and 13 wt% MgO is interpreted to result from overstepping the fluid-saturated solidus reaction mass balanced to 1.00(18) phase A + 1.07(4) fluid = 0.63(15) chondrodite + 1.44(2) melt. At 13.5 GPa liquids coexist with one or two of hydrous wadsleyite, clinohumite, superhydrous B, phase B, and forsterite. The discontinuity in liquid composition is no longer present, indicating that the second critical endpoint of the solidus has been overstepped. Thus, hydrous melts in the Mg-rich part of the MSH system (molar bulk Mg/Si > 2) are chemically distinct from aqueous fluids at pressure up to 11 GPa. Convergence of fluid and melt compositions along the solidus resulting in a supercritical liquid occurs between 11 and 13.5 GPa, at which pressure the entire MSH system becomes supercritical.     

Supervised classification of electric power transmission line nominal voltage from high-resolution aerial imagery

For many researchers, government agencies, and emergency responders, access to the geospatial data of US electric power infrastructure is invaluable for analysis, planning, and disaster recovery. Historically, however, access to high quality geospatial energy data has been limited to few agencies because of commercial licenses restrictions, and those resources which are widely accessible have been of poor quality, particularly with respect to reliability. Recent efforts to develop a highly reliable and publicly accessible alternative to the existing datasets were met with numerous challenges – not the least of which was filling the gaps in power transmission line voltage ratings. To address the line voltage rating problem, we developed and tested a basic methodology that fuses knowledge and techniques from power systems, geography, and machine learning domains. Specifically, we identified predictors of nominal voltage that could be extracted from aerial imagery and developed a tree-based classifier to classify nominal line voltage ratings. Overall, we found that line support height, support span, and conductor spacing are the best predictors of voltage ratings, and that the classifier built with these predictors had a reliable predictive accuracy (that is, within one voltage class for four out of the five classes sampled). We applied our approach to a study area in Minnesota.