Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Recent insights into the dissolved and particulate fluxes from the Himalayan tributaries to the Ganga River

The Ganga River plays a major role in the transfer of materials from the Indian sub-continent to the Bay of Bengal, both in dissolved and particulate forms. To understand the present elemental dynamics of the Ganga River system, it is important to assess the hydrogeochemical contribution of its tributaries. In this paper, we present an updated database on dissolved and particulate fluxes and denudation rates of the Himalayan tributaries of the Ganga River (Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi). Dissolved trace element concentrations, their fluxes and suspended sediment-associated elemental fluxes of the Himalayan tributaries have been reported for the first time. Total dissolved flux of the Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi was estimated as 4, 19.1, 10.3 and 8.8 million tons year^?1 accounting for ~?5.7, ~?27.3, ~?14.7 and ~?12.6%, respectively, of the total annual dissolved load carried by the Ganga River. The total particulate flux of the Ramganga, Ghaghara, Gandak and Kosi was computed as 8.2, 81.6, 30.9 and 19.5 million tons year^?1, respectively. Compared to earlier studies, we have found a significant increase in the total dissolved flux and chemical denudation rate of the studied tributaries. The estimated particulate fluxes were found to be low in comparison to the previous studies. We suggest that a significant increase in the dissolved fluxes and a decrease in the particulate fluxes are an indication of the increasing anthropogenic disturbances in the catchment of these tributaries.     

Diagenetic evolution vis-a-vis reservoir characteristics of Dhosa sandstones,Ler dome,Kachchh, western India

The detrital mineralogy as well as diagenetic characters of the Dhosa Sandstone Member of Chari Formation exposed at the Lerdome, south of Bhuj was studied. In order to assess the potential of the Dhosa Sandstone as a reservoir, it is substantial to understand the diagenetic processes that are controlled largely by post-depositional cementation and compaction in addition to framework composition and original depositional textures. The petrologic analysis of 33 thin sections was carried out to discern primary composition and diagenetic features including primary and secondary porosity patterns. Monocrystalline quartz dominates the detrital mineralogy followed by polycrystalline quartz. Among the polycrystalline variety recrystallized metamorphic quartz surpasses stretched metamorphic quartz in terms of abundance. Feldspars comprise microcline and plagioclase where the former is dominant over the latter. Orthoclase too comprises a very small percentage. Mica, chert, rock fragments, and heavies form the remaining detrital constituent in descending order of their constituent percentage. The diagenetic precipitates are mainly carbonate (8.30%) and iron (7.80%) followed by clay (0.66%) and silica (0.88%) that are minor constituent of the total cementing material. The main paragenetic events identified are early cementation, mechanical compaction, late cementation, dissolution, and authigenesis of clays. The overall reservoir quality seems to be controlled by compaction and authigenic carbonate cementation. The minus cement porosity average 29.4%. The porosity loss due to compaction is 21.92% and by cementation is 29.71%. The loss of original porosity was due to early cementation followed by moderate mechanical compaction during shallow burial. Preservation of available miniscule primary porosity was ascribed to dissolution of carbonates and quartz overgrowth which resisted chemical compaction during deep burial. The studied sandstones may have low reservoir quality owing to existing porosity of less than 9%. More carbonate dissolution and its transformation in dolomite in sub-surface condition and macro-fracture porosity may result in enhanced secondary porosity and good diagenetic traps.     

Geology and Active Tectonics of the Lalmai Hills,Bangladesh–An Overview from Chittagong Tripura Fold Belt Perspective

The Lalmai Hills is a low amplitude anticline with significant variations in landforms, situated along the western fringe of the Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt (CTFB) and immediate east of the Indo-Burmese deformation front. This fold belt of the Bengal Basin along with more easterly Indo-Burman Range (IBR) developed as a consequence of the oblique collision between Indian and Burmese plates. This neotectonic activity is still continuing and shaping the geomorphology of the area. This study is conducted based on the geomorphological observation of the topo maps and satellite images, and through reconnaissance field work. Stream length gradient index (SL Index) and Mountain front sinuosity (S_mf) reveals the relative status of tectonic activity. Anomalous SL index values confirm the position of the sympathetic minor faults and also relate to the local stratigraphy. A 2D structural model based on the seismic section reveals thrusts controlled wedge-shape upliftment of the central part as pop-up anticlinal structure. The western thrust is the direct result of the collision of the Indian and Burmese plates, and the eastern one is the back thrust of the western fault. Low S_mf value found in the western flank signifies recent tectonics and relatively high S_mf value in the eastern flank indicates that weathering intensity is relatively greater compared to western flank. Finally, the findings not only enhanced the understanding of geomorphic evolution and active tectonics of the Lalmai Hills area but also the overall tectonic and geomorphic evolution of the western most folded part of the CTFB.     

Participatory Vulnerability Reduction (PVR): an urban community-based approach for earthquake management

Participation of local people during any disaster is enormous. They possess better knowledge and information about their own community than anyone else from the outside. This study proposes Participatory Vulnerability Reduction (PVR), a community-based approach for disaster management. The concept of PVR was applied to an urban community of Dhaka city (Ward no. 06 of Dhaka North City Corporation) which has been identified by the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme as one of the most vulnerable areas of the city for earthquake. PVR consists three steps, and in each step, different participatory urban appraisal tools were used. In the first step, the community people assessed the earthquake vulnerability. It was found that some certain parts of the study area are highly vulnerable due to lack of accessibility to the critical facilities, inadequacy of open space, poor construction practice and unsuitable soil condition for building construction. This was followed by analyzing the root causes and effects of these problems. Structural fragility of the buildings, construction of settlements by filling the low-lying areas and development of slums beside taller buildings are the three major causes behind the above vulnerable issues. In the second step, capacity of the community was assessed in terms of resources and their organizational structure. In the final step, local people developed the strategies to overcome the vulnerability and a community-based organizational set up was proposed to coordinate the collective actions. Although developed in local context, application of PVR is not limited for earthquake and it can be replicated for other communities as well.     

Identifying the determinants of access to agricultural credit in Southern Punjab of Pakistan

Based on the survey data of 250 farmers from the Multan district of Southern region of Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to empirically examine the determinants of access to agricultural credit. This study used the probit model to analyze the data. The results revealed that formal education, farm size, level of farm mechanization, farm revenue and landholding size positively and significantly influenced access to agricultural credit while the age of the farmer’s, distance, and off- farm income negatively and insignificantly influenced farmer’s accessibility to agricultural credit. The findings of the current study offer a policy guideline to streamline national policy on agricultural finance. This study also recommends that ZaraiTaraqiati Bank (ZTBL) and other Commercial Banks should improve their agricultural credit schemes to fulfil the diversified needs of small farm holders.

     

Flexural deformation controls on Late Quaternary sediment dispersal in the Garo-Rajmahal Gap,NW Bengal Basin

Subsurface deformation is a driver for river path selection when deformation rates become comparable to the autogenic mobility rate of rivers. Here we combine geomorphology, soil and sediment facies analyses, and geophysical data of the Late Quaternary sediments of the central Garo-Rajmahal Gap in Northwest Bengal to link subsurface deformation with surface processes. We show variable sedimentation characteristics, from slow rates (<0.8 mm/year) in the Tista megafan at the foot of the Himalaya to nondeposition at the exposed surface of the Barind Tract to the south, enabling the development of mature soils. Combined subsidence in the Tista fan and uplift of the Barind Tract are consistent with a N-S flexural response of the Indian plate to loading of the Himalaya Mountains given a low value of elastic thickness (15–25 km). Provenance analysis based on bulk strontium concentration suggests a dispersal of sediment consistent with this flexural deformation—in particular the abandonment of the Barind Tract by a Pleistocene Brahmaputra River and the current extents of the Tista megafan lobes. Overall, these results highlight the control by deeply rooted deformation patterns on the routing of sediment by large rivers in foreland settings.     

Estimating the maximum impact force of dry granular flow based on pileup characteristics

The maximum normal impact resultant force(NIRF)is usually regarded as the sum of the static earth pressure of the dead zone and the dynamic impact pressure of the flowing layer.The influence of the interaction between the flowing layer and dead zone on the impact force is ignored.In this study,we classified two impact models with respect to the pileup characteristics of the dead zone.Then,we employed the discrete element method to investigate the influences of the pileup characteristics on the impact force of dry granular flow on a tilted rigid wall.If the final pileup height is equal to the critical value,the maximum NIRF can be estimated using a hydrostatic model,because the main contribution to the maximum NIRF is the static earth pressure of the dead zone.If the final pileup height is less than the critical value,however,the particles in the dead zone are squeezed along the slope surface by the impact ofthe flowing layer on the dead zone,and because of shear effects,the flowing layer causes an entrainment in the dead zone.This results in a decrease in the volume of the dead zone at the moment of maximum NIRF with increases in the slope angle.As such,the maximum NIRF mainly comprises the instant impact force of the flowing layer,so hydro-dynamic models are effective for estimating the maximum NIRF.Impact models will benefit from further study of the components and distribution of the impact force of dry granular flow.     

Molecular Identification and Expression Analysis of Carbonic Anhydrase VII in Pufferfish (Takifugu rubripes)

Ocean Science Journal - A carbonic anhydrase VII gene, encoding 277 amino acids, was identified in the intestinal tissue of pufferfish (Takifugu rubripes). The translated protein with an 833-bp...     

Intraspecific morphometric diversity of barramundi (Lates calcariferBloch, 1790) in the waters of southern Bangladesh

A total of 160 barramundi's (Lates calcarifer Bloch, 1790) sampled from four rivers (Tentulia, Balaswar, Bakkhali, and Andarmanik) along the southern coastal region of Bangladesh were investigated in terms of morphometric characters to reveal the intraspecific variation. Twenty-five morphometric measurements were extracted using the conventional method and subjected to multivariate analyses (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA), discriminate function analysis (DFA), cluster analysis (CA)) to distinguish individuals from different rivers. The result demonstrated that twenty-two out of 25 measurements was statistically significant (Univariate ANOVA) among all four populations. PCA analysis of morphometric characters resulted in two principal components, PC I and PCⅡ which accounted for 79.25% and 4.28% of the total data variance. PC I-PC Ⅱ plot explained 83.53% of total variance differentiated the population of L. calcarifer into two groups. Discriminate analysis correctly classified about 88.1% of the examined fish into the four areas. The UPGMA dendrogram showed that Bakkhali populations were the most morphologically different populations in comparison to other populations, while Andarmanik and Balaswar populations were very close to each other. The strong morphometric variation between Bakkhali and Tentulia, Andarmanik and Balaswar was observed in the present study, suggested the evidence of the separate stock population of barramundi in these locations, which might require distinct stock management strategies for resource sustainability in the waters of southern Bangladesh. However, if these findings are supported by further molecular markers and geometric morphometry, this would be a strong indication of different stocks of this population in the four rivers of southern Bangladesh.