Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.     

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

The use of watershed geomorphic data in flash flood susceptibility zoning: a case study of the Karnaphuli and Sangu river basins of Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The occurrence of heavy rainfall in the south-eastern hilly region of Bangladesh makes this area highly susceptible to recurrent flash flooding. As the region is the commercial...     

Geochemistry and sediment in the main stream of the Ca River basin,Vietnam: weathering process,solute-discharge relationships,and reservoir impact

Acta Geochimica - In this study, we investigated the chemical composition of dissolved solids in the Ca River basin, North-Central Vietnam. Water samples were collected from August 2017 to July...     

Development of analytical models to estimate the increase in pile capacity with time (pile setup) from soil properties

This paper presents the analyses of twelve prestressed concrete (PSC) instrumented test piles that were driven in different bridge construction projects of Louisiana in order to develop analytical models to estimate the increase in pile capacity with time or pile setup. The twelve test piles were driven mainly in cohesive soils. Detailed soil characterizations including laboratory and in situ tests were conducted to determine the different soil properties. The test piles were instrumented with vibrating wire strain gauges, piezometers, pressure cells that were monitored during the whole testing period. Several static load tests (SLTs) and dynamic load tests were conducted on each test pile at different times after end of driving (EOD) to quantify the magnitude and rate of setup. Measurements of load tests confirmed that pile capacity increases almost linearly with the logarithm of time elapsed after EOD. Case pile wave analysis program was performed on the restrikes data and was used along with the load distribution plots from the SLTs to evaluate the increase in skin friction capacity of individual soil layers along the length of the piles. The logarithmic linear setup parameter “A” for unit skin friction was calculated of the 70 individual clayey soil layers and was correlated with different soil properties such as undrained shear strength (S_u), plasticity index, vertical coefficient of consolidation (c_v), over consolidation ratio and sensitivity (S_t). Nonlinear multivariable regression analyses were performed, and three different empirical models are proposed to predict the pile setup parameter “A” as a function of soil properties. For verification, the subsurface soil conditions and setup information for additional 18 PSC piles collected from local database were used to compare the measured versus predicted “A” parameters from the proposed models, which showed good agreement.

     

Mudbank regime off the Kerala coast during monsoon and non-monsoon seasons

Field experiments conducted in the nearshore ocean to understand the dynamics of mudbank off Kerala, south-west coast of India, are highlighted. Real time monitoring of the nearshore ocean off Purakkad, Kerala was accomplished using pressure transducers for nearshore surface wave measurements, and current sensors for nearshore velocity measurements. Comprehensive information on the spatial structure of mudbank was obtained from aerial surveys. Extensive data collected on surface waves and currents in the nearshore ocean, indicate that the infra-gravity (IG) waves (leaky modes and trapped edge wave modes), and far infra-gravity (FIG) waves coupled with strong shoreline reflections and undertow play an important role in the dynamics associated with the mudbanks off Kerala during the monsoon season. During the non-monsoon season evidence for progressive edge waves in the infragravity frequency band, an energetic gravity wave band and a strong undertow with weak reflections was observed.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.     

Decision support for infrastructure planning: a comprehensive location–allocation model for fire station in complex urban system

Natural Hazards - Infrastructures are the most important aspect of any urban system. Properly planned infrastructures are critical for ensuring services and protecting an urban system from...     

Optimization of dissolved urea measurements in coastal waters with the combination of a single reagent and high temperature

Urea is an unstable and intermediate organic nitrogenous compound present in coastal environments and is derived from the excretion of some aquatic organisms and wastewater discharges. Urea plays an important role in the nitrogen cycle, where it is utilized by algae, including diatoms. However, there are very limited relevant data on the production, consumption, and degradation of urea because of the lack of appropriate measurement techniques. The conventional method is based on the formation of a colored product when urea reacts with diacetyl monoxime in a sulfuric acid solution. We examined the optimal conditions for the formation of the colored product; specifically, we evaluated different temperatures (22–80 °C), reaction times, mixing ratios of color reagents, and sample storage times. Application of the single mixed color-developing reagent (COLDER) at 70 °C resulted in the optimal formation of the colored product within a short reaction time of 60 min. This method was then used to measure dissolved urea in different coastal environments. The concentrations detected were as follows: 0.65–0.72, 0.49–0.58, and 1.09–2.28 µM urea-N at coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove sites, respectively. Our results showed high precision (SD = 0.02, CV = 1.2%), a low detection limit (0.03 µM urea-N), and a high recovery rate (94–99%). In summary, this high-temperature procedure for urea measurements should be valuable for obtaining high-precision data that can further the understanding of urea dynamics and its role in coastal ecosystems.