Magmatism and fenitization in the Cretaceous potassium-alkaline-carbonatitic complex of Ipanema S?o Paulo State, Brazil

The Ipanema alkaline-carbonatitic complex is part of the Meso-Cenozoic alkaline magmatism located within the southeastern part of the Brazilian Platform. Drill-core and field sampling have indicated the occurrence of glimmerites, with subordinate shonkinites (mela-syenites), clinopyroxene-bearing glimmerites, diorites and syenites. The glimmerites are cross-cut by lamprophyric dykes and calciocarbonatites. Fenitization has deeply affected the country rocks, originating dioritic and syenitic rocks. The Ipanema rocks show a distinct potassic affinity. The initial Sr-Nd- isotopic composition of the Ipanema rocks (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr?=?0.70661–0.70754 and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd?=?0.51169–0.51181) is similar to that of tholeiitic and potassium-rich-alkaline rocks of the Eastern Paraguay. Stable isotope data for the Ipanema calciocarbonatite suggest interaction with fluids at temperatures typical of hydrothermal stages, as hypothesized for other carbonatite complexes from southeastern Brazil. The chemical differences between the lamprophyre, glimmerites, carbonatites, apatitites and magnetitites, and the absence of marked REE enrichment in the evolved lithologies, all indicate that fractional crystallization and accumulus of liquidus phases in a magma reservoir, likely coupled with liquid immiscibility processes, may have played an important role in the genesis of the Ipanema rocks.     

Lacustrine records of Holocene flood pulse dynamics in the Upper Paraguay River watershed (Pantanal wetlands,Brazil)

The Pantanal is the world's largest tropical wetland and a biodiversity hotspot, yet its response to Quaternary environmental change is unclear. To address this problem, sediment cores from shallow lakes connected to the Upper Paraguay River (PR) were analyzed and radiocarbon dated to track changes in sedimentary environments. Stratal relations, detrital particle size, multiple biogeochemical indicators, and sponge spicules suggest fluctuating lake-level lowstand conditions between ~ 11,000 and 5300 cal yr BP, punctuated by sporadic and in some cases erosive flood flows. A hiatus has been recorded from ~ 5300 to 2600 cal yr BP, spurred by confinement of the PR within its channel during an episode of profound regional drought. Sustained PR flooding caused a transgression after ~ 2600 cal yr BP, with lake-level highstand conditions appearing during the Little Ice Age. Holocene PR flood pulse dynamics are best explained by variability in effective precipitation, likely driven by insolation and tropical sea-surface temperature gradients. Our results provide novel support for hypotheses on: (1) stratigraphic discontinuity of floodplain sedimentary archives; (2) late Holocene methane flux from Southern Hemisphere wetlands; and (3) pre-colonial indigenous ceramics traditions in western Brazil.     

On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.     

Spitzer IRAC infrared colours of submillimetre-bright galaxies

High-redshift submillimetre-bright galaxies identified by blank field surveys at millimetre and submillimetre wavelengths appear in the region of the Infra Red Array Camera (IRAC) colour–colour diagrams previously identified as the domain of luminous active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Our analysis using a set of empirical and theoretical dusty starburst spectral energy distribution (SED) models shows that power-law continuum sources associated with hot dust heated by young (≲100 Myr old), extreme starbursts at z > 2 also occupy the same general area as AGNs in the IRAC colour–colour plots. A detailed comparison of the IRAC colours and SEDs demonstrates that the two populations are distinct from each other, with submillimetre-bright galaxies having a systematically flatter IRAC spectrum (≳1 mag bluer in the observed [4.5]–[8.0] colour). Only about 20 per cent of the objects overlap in the colour–colour plots, and this low fraction suggests that submillimetre galaxies powered by a dust-obscured AGN are not common. The red infrared colours of the submillimetre galaxies are distinct from those of the ubiquitous foreground IRAC sources, and we propose a set of infrared colour selection criteria for identifying SMG counterparts that can be used even in the absence of radio or Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) 24 μm data.     

A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.     

Slope stability analysis in 3D using numerical limit analysis (NLA) and elasto-plastic analysis (EPA)

The present paper addresses the problem of factor of safety (FS) determination in 3D slope stability analysis. For that purpose, use is made of two numerical methods/techniques in three benchmark problems: numerical limit analysis (NLA) and elasto-plastic analysis (EPA). Finite elements are used in both techniques. The primary objective of the study is, by comparing the two techniques, to establish the feasibility of using NLA in the evaluation of 3D slope stability problems and to establish its practical applicability and competitiveness in relation to EPA. Because of their geometry or their boundary conditions, the problems cannot be analysed as plane strain state problems or using the 2D limit equilibrium technique. In both methods, an FS is determined for the slopes by reducing the strength parameters of the geological materials using a scalar factor, known as the strength reduction factor. From the comparison of the FSs and of the computational efforts required for the two numerical techniques, it was possible to establish NLA’s competiveness and viability for the analysis of real 3D slope stability problems when implemented in an efficient manner.     

A comparison of two physics-based numerical models for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions

Problems in hydrology and water management that involve both surface water and groundwater are best addressed with simulation models that can represent the interactions between these two flow regimes. In the current generation of coupled models, a variety of approaches is used to resolve surface–subsurface interactions and other key processes such as surface flow propagation. In this study we compare two physics-based numerical models that use a 3D Richards equation representation of subsurface flow. In one model, surface flow is represented by a fully 2D kinematic approximation to the Saint–Venant equations with a sheet flow conceptualization. In the second model, surface routing is performed via a quasi-2D diffusive formulation and surface runoff follows a rill flow conceptualization. The coupling between the land surface and the subsurface is handled via an explicit exchange term resolved by continuity principles in the first model (a fully-coupled approach) and by special treatment of atmospheric boundary conditions in the second (a sequential approach). Despite the significant differences in formulation between the two models, we found them to be in good agreement for the simulation experiments conducted. In these numerical tests, on a sloping plane and a tilted V-catchment, we examined saturation excess and infiltration excess runoff production under homogeneous and heterogeneous conditions, the dynamics of the return flow process, the differences in hydrologic response under rill flow and sheet flow parameterizations, and the effects of factors such as grid discretization, time step size, and slope angle. Low sensitivity to vertical discretization and time step size was found for the two models under saturation excess and homogeneous conditions. Larger sensitivity and differences in response were observed under infiltration excess and heterogeneous conditions, due to the different coupling approaches and spatial discretization schemes used in the two models. For these cases, the sensitivity to vertical and temporal resolution was greatest for processes such as reinfiltration and ponding, although the differences between the hydrographs of the two models decreased as mesh and step size were progressively refined. In return flow behavior, the models are in general agreement, with the largest discrepancies, during the recession phase, attributable to the different parameterizations of diffusion in the surface water propagation schemes. Our results also show that under equivalent parameterizations, the rill and sheet flow conceptualizations used in the two models produce very similar responses in terms of hydrograph shape and flow depth distribution.     

Temporal correlations and clustering of landslides

This paper examines temporal correlations and temporal clustering of a proxy historical landslide time series, 2255 reported landslides 1951–2002, for an area in the Emilia‐Romagna Region, Italy. Landslide intensity is measured by the number of reported landslides in a day (D_L) and in an ‘event’ (S_event) of consecutive days with landsliding. The non‐zero values in both time series D_L and S_event are unequally spaced in time, and have heavy‐tailed frequency‐size distributions. To examine temporal correlations, we use power‐spectral analysis (Lomb periodogram) and surrogate data analysis, confronting our original D_L and S_event time series with 1000 shuffled (uncorrelated) versions. We conclude that the landslide intensity series D_L has strong temporal correlations and S_event has likely temporal correlations. To examine temporal clustering in D_L and S_event, we consider extremes over different landslide intensity thresholds. We first examine the statistical distribution of interextreme occurrence times, τ, and find Weibull distributions with parameter γ << 1·0 [D_L] and γ < 1·0 [S_event]; thus D_L and S_event each have temporal correlations, but S_event to a lesser degree. We next examine correlations between successive interextreme occurrence times, τ. Using autocorrelation analysis applied to τ, combined with surrogate data analysis, we find for D_L linear correlations in τ, but for S_event inconclusive results. However, using Kendall's rank correlation analysis we find for both D_L and S_event the series of τ are strongly correlated. Finally, we apply Fano Factor analysis, finding for both D_L and S_event the timings of extremes over a given threshold exhibit a fractal structure and are clustered in time. In this paper, we provide a framework for examining time series where the non‐zero values are strongly unequally spaced and heavy‐tailed, particularly important in the Earth Sciences due to their common occurrence, and find that landslide intensity time series exhibit temporal correlations and clustering. Many landslide models currently are designed under the assumption that landslides are uncorrelated in time, which we show is false. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.