Breadcrust bombs as indicators of Vulcanian eruption dynamics at Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Vulcanian eruptions are common at many volcanoes around the world. Vulcanian activity occurs as either isolated sequences of eruptions or as precursors to sustained explosive events and is interpreted as clearing of shallow plugs from volcanic conduits. Breadcrust bombs characteristic of Vulcanian eruptions represent samples of different parts of these plugs and preserve information that can be used to infer parameters of pre-eruption magma ascent. The morphology and preserved volatile contents of breadcrust bombs erupted in 1999 from Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, thus allow us to constrain the physical processes responsible for Vulcanian eruption sequences of this volcano. Morphologically, breadcrust bombs differ in the thickness of glassy surface rinds and in the orientation and density of crack networks. Thick rinds fracture to create deep, widely spaced cracks that form large rectangular domains of surface crust. In contrast, thin rinds form polygonal networks of closely spaced shallow cracks. Rind thickness, in turn, is inversely correlated with matrix glass water content in the rind. Assuming that all rinds cooled at the same rate, this correlation suggests increasing bubble nucleation delay times with decreasing pre-fragmentation water content of the melt. A critical bubble nucleation threshold of 0.4–0.9 wt% water exists, below which bubble nucleation does not occur and resultant bombs are dense. At pre-fragmentation melt H₂O contents of >∼0.9 wt%, only glassy rinds are dense and bomb interiors vesiculate after fragmentation. For matrix glass H₂O contents of ≥1.4 wt%, rinds are thin and vesicular instead of thick and non-vesicular. A maximum measured H₂O content of 3.1 wt% establishes the maximum pressure (63 MPa) and depth (2.5 km) of magma that may have been tapped during a single eruptive event. More common H₂O contents of ≤1.5 wt% suggest that most eruptions involved evacuation of ≤1.5 km of the conduit. As we expect that substantial overpressures existed in the conduit prior to eruption, these depth estimates based on magmastatic pressure are maxima. Moreover, the presence of measurable CO₂ (≤17 ppm) in quenched glass of highly degassed magma is inconsistent with simple models of either open- or closed-system degassing, and leads us instead to suggest re-equilibration of the melt with gas derived from a deeper magmatic source. Together, these observations suggest a model for the repeated Vulcanian eruptions that includes (1) evacuation of the shallow conduit during an individual eruption, (2) depressurization of magma remaining in the conduit accompanied by open-system degassing through permeable bubble networks, (3) rapid conduit re-filling, and (4) dome formation prior to the subsequent explosion. An important part of this process is densification of upper conduit magma to allow repressurization between explosions. At a critical overpressure, trapped pressurized gas fragments the nascent impermeable cap to repeat the process.     

Scaling characteristics of spatial patterns of soil moisture from distributed modelling

Characterizing the spatial dynamics of soil moisture fields is a key issue in hydrology, offering an avenue to improve our understanding of complex land surface–atmosphere interactions. In this paper, the statistical structure of soil moisture patterns is examined using modelled soil moisture obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 0.125° resolution. The study focuses on the vertically averaged soil moisture in the top 10 cm and 100 cm layers. The two variables display a weak dependence for lower values of surface soil moisture, with the strength of the relationship increasing with the water content of the top layer. In both cases, the variance of the soil moisture follows a power law decay as a function of the averaging area. The superficial layer shows a lower degree of spatial organization and higher temporal variability, which is reflected in rapid changes in time of the slope of the scaling functions of the soil moisture variance. Conversely, the soil moisture in the top 100 cm has lower variability in time and larger spatial correlation. The scaling of these patterns was found to be controlled by the changes in the soil water content. Results have implications for the downscaling of soil moisture to prevent model bias.     

Enhancing imaging of the Sub-Andean Foothills geology using magnetotellurics: A case history of a 3D survey in southern Bolivia

A magnetotelluric acquisition and modelling campaign, comprising 400 full tensor soundings, was carried out in the Sub-Andean Foothills in the area located south of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. The objective of the survey was to improve the imaging of the Paleozoic section and provide insight to the overall structure of the Devonian Silurian complex. The acquired data were inverted assuming both two-dimensional and three-dimensional dimensionality of the subsurface structure, adopting a multi-step iterative workflow, which began applying unconstrained inversion and introduced increasing constraints determined at each following step based on the interpretation of the latest inversion results. The geological interpretation of the final inversion results allowed to better image the expected complexity in the structures, particularly highlighting several different levels of detachment, mainly in the area of Kirusillas Formation. Furthermore, an oblique sense was identified of the main tendency of N-S deformation, related to a dextral transgressional movement that generates discrete dislocations, at a length scale of the order of a few kilometres.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

Realistic modelling of shelf-estuary regions

A very high-resolution modelling configuration was created for the estuary of Baía de Todos os Santos – BTS, Brazil (300 to 400 m), and adjacent coastal waters (600 to 1200 m). The adoption of a multi-corner domain approach allowed the variable spatial resolution required to resolve the shelf, the bay and their interactions. Seven years were simulated using realistic oceanic, atmospheric and riverine forcing. Model validation was done against observations showing the model skill to reproduce the thermohaline field, the tidal currents, as well as the variability of the free surface at tidal and sub-tidal time scales. The results provide the first representation of the tidal wave propagation along the bay, in terms of maps of amplitudes, phases and ellipses of the barotropic currents for the main tidal constituents. By analysing the residual currents at different depths, in terms of averages over the simulation period, several prominent structures were identified and named: (i) Salvador eddy (up to 0.2 m s⁻¹); (ii) St Antonio current (up to 0.45 m s⁻¹); (iii) Salvador current (up to 0.5 m s⁻¹); (iv) Itaparica eddy (up to 0.2 m s⁻¹); (v) Ilha dos Frades southern eddy (up to 0.1 m s⁻¹); and (vi) Ilha dos Frades northern eddy (up to 0.2 m s⁻¹). The model set-up proved to be highly efficient and robust simulating the BTS shelf-estuary region and such an approach may be suitable to other estuarine systems.

     

A multidisciplinary approach to reveal the Sicily Climate and Environment over the last 20 000 years

We present a thorough review of the knowledge on the climate and environment in Sicily over the last 20 000 years, taking into account results of several studies carried using terrestrial and marine records. We obtain a coherent framework of the most important changes succeeded in the island, even if some points need further investigation. All the reconstructions of surface temperatures of the seas and the air surrounding Sicily point out severe climatic conditions during the last glacial period. The steppe- and semisteppe-like vegetation pattern testifies, together with additional evidence from geochemical data of lacustrine evidence, markedly arid conditions. Fi-nally, significant episodes of sea level drop connected Sicily to the Italian Peninsula and favoured the dispersion of faunal elements from southern Italy. The transition between the last glacial and the Holocene was not characterized by a gradual warming but was punctuated by two abrupt suborbital climatic fluctuations: Bølling-Allerød (warm) and Younger Dryas (cold), as recognized in the sediments recovered close to the northern and southern coast of Sicily. A denser arboreal cover is possibly indicated by the occurrence of dormouse and Arvicola remains. Finally the sensitivity of Sicily to climate perturbations is demonstrated by the occurrence of repeated subtle climatic anomalies during the Holocene, including the Little Ice Age, also known from historical chronicles. Forests, woods and Mediterranean maquis developed in the early-middle Holocene. Thereafter was a general decline of arboreal vegetation, following a general aridification trend that seems to be a common feature in southern Europe and North Africa. Science Greek colonization (7^th century before Christ), the landscape was intensively modelled for agriculture and breeding, leading to a significant loss of vegetation cover.     

Regional models of flow-duration curves of perennial and intermittent streams and their use for calibrating the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

One of the main challenges faced by hydrologists and water engineers is the estimation of variables needed for water resources planning and management in ungauged river basins. To this end, techniques for transposing information, such as hydrological regional analyses, are widely employed. A method is presented for regionalizing flow-duration curves (FDCs) in perennial, intermittent and ephemeral rivers, based on the extended Burr XII probability distribution. This distribution shows great flexibility to fit data, with accurate reproduction of flow extremes. The performance analysis showed that, in general, the regional models are able to synthesize FDCs in ungauged basins, with a few possible drawbacks in the application of the method to intermittent and ephemeral rivers. In addition to the regional models, we summarize the experience of using synthetic FDCs for the indirect calibration of the Rio Grande rainfall–runoff model parameters in ungauged basins.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Costa, V., Fernandes, W., and Naghettini, M., 2013. Regional models of flow-duration curves of perennial and intermittent streams and their use for calibrating the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 262–277.     

Biogeochemical effects of disturbance in shallow water sediment by macroalgae harvesting boats

In the shallow water of Orbetello lagoon, macroalgae harvesting boats produce sediment disturbance. To evaluate the effect of this, during 2001-2002, a trial study was carried out in the lagoon in order to: verify seasonal and diurnal trends in nutrients and estimate the quantity of resuspended organic sediment. An unbalanced and balanced ANOVA (one and two way) analysis was applied. The disturbance did not produce strong and lasting eutrophication effects. In the seasonal survey, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) showed significant decreases in disturbed areas at the end of the trial, while the control area showed a constant, significant increase. Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP) significantly increased everywhere. In disturbed areas, sediment redox (Eh((NHE))) increased and porosity values decreased, contrary to the control area. Total organic carbon (TOC) remained unchanged in disturbed areas, but increased in the control area, where the C:P ration increased. The fall-out of sedimentary material resuspended by boat action for as far as 50 m from the boat route, was 189 g(dw)m(-2) made up mainly of organic matter. This disturbance could be the cause of change in vegetation in the lagoon.     

Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.     

Restoration of the eutrophic Orbetello lagoon (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): water quality management

The Orbetello lagoon (Tyrrhenian coast, Italy) receives treated urban and land based fishfarms wastewater. The development of severe eutrophication imposed the three main activity adoption focuses on (1) macroalgae harvesting; (2) pumping of water from the sea; (3) confining wastewater to phytotreatment ponds. The responses to these interventions were rapid and macroalgal reduction growth and seagrass return were recorded. Since 1999, a new macroalgal development was recorded. The aim of this research was to discover whether the recent macroalgal growth can be attributed to the continuing wastewater influx from the remaining persistent anthropic sources (PAS) or from the sediment nutrient release. A monitoring programme was carried out between August 1999 and July 2000 in order to measure dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus in the wastewaters entering into the lagoon and in central lagoon areas, seaweed and seagrass distribution and lagoon N, P annual budgets. The results showed higher N and P values close to PAS. The distribution of the macroalgal species confirms that the available P comes almost entirely from these remaining PAS. In conclusion, the environmental measures adopted produced a significant reduction in algal biomass development in the lagoon; the macroalgal harvesting activities produced a sediment disturbance with following oxidize conditions, which make P unavailable in the lagoon water, excepting close the PAS.