Seismic risk assessment for developing countries: Pakistan as a case study

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.     

A methodology for defining seismic scenario‐structure‐based limit state criteria for rc high‐rise wall buildings using net drift

As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A statistical investigation of polar auroras

Summary The magnetosphere depends on the astronomical orientation of the geomagnetic field with respect to the solar wind. The statistical distribution of polar auroras must therefore depend on the orientation of the geomagnetic field with respect to the ecliptic plane. We have investigated this peculiar feature of auroras that we call auroral astronomical geometry. We give here some preliminary results concerning a limited set of pre-IGY auroras. The criteria that we have chosen to prepare the auroral collection are also briefly summarized. The results conform to the hypothesis of the auroral origin from the magnetospheric neutral sheet. Auroral particles are found to impinge over the earth with low angles with respect to the ecliptic plane (40°). Only in a 4-hours interval around midnight they are found to impinge with angles up to 70°. Definite evidence of these facts requires further investigation with a larger amount of data. — We have also prepared a complex code for recording the morphological features of each aurora, namely: standard information, movement. intensity, color, sunlight illumination, period of pulsation, location in the sky among stars and planets, time evolution, duration and general features of the auroral display. It is well known in fact that the auroral morphology affects auroral heights and latitudes, etc.; presumably it should also affect its astronomical geometry, which we will investigate later.Presented at the Inter-Union Symposium on Solar-Terrestrial Physics — Belgrade 1966.     

The relationship between websterite and peridotite in the Balmuccia peridotite massif (NW Italy) as revealed by trace element variations in clinopyroxene

 Field, mineralogical and petrological data are presented on a newly found carbonatite occurrence associated with “kamafugite” lava at Cupaello, central Italy. This carbonatite occurrence is part of the Late Pleistocene Umbria-Latium ultra-alkaline district (ULUD) which extends southwards within the Apennines to Mount Vulture, delineating an important magmatic province along the most peripheral belt of the Tyrrhenian extensional tectonic system. This province is distinct, but probably related genetically with the more abundant and common leucite-bearing assemblages of the Roman Comagmatic Region and represents the first reported occurrence of carbonatite assemblages in the Mediterranean Basin. The Cupaello suite indicates that primary or near-primary mantle silicate melts of “kamafugitic” composition are transitional with Ca-carbonatite liquid and provides direct evidence of immiscibility of carbonatite from “kamafugite” magma. It is inferred that a primary mantle origin of Ca-carbonatites is conditional upon a potential silicate magma that may be coupled with the carbonatite, but may not have reached the surface. The data indicate a strong genetic link between ULUD Ca-carbonatites and some African analogues, supporting the view that their genesis depends on similar source and associated tectonic conditions. Received: 17 January 1995 / Accepted: 14 June 1995     

The use of the slope–area function to analyse process domains in complex badland landscapes

This paper explores the effectiveness of the widely-used functional relationship between drainage area (A in m²) and slope (S in m/m) to identify local process domains and aid interpretation of process interactions in a complex badland landscape. In order to perform this investigation, a series of sub-basins tributary to the Formone River in the Orcia catchment (central Italy) were selected as a suitable study area within which to explore our questions, given these basins' general representativeness of local terrain, the availability of a high resolution digital terrain model and previous extensive geomorphological research. Eroding basins containing both calanchi and landslides are common in the sub-humid badland landscape of central Italy, where field observation identifies a complex pattern of erosive processes associated with a history of uplift, despite which parts of the local landscape appear disconnected. Results reveal that the shape of all S–A curves (plotted using S data binned on log A) is comparable with that described in the literature, although sub-basins containing calanchi generally plot with higher S values than non-calanchi ones, except in the ‘fluvial’ section of the plots. Second, when viewed on total data (non-binned) S–A plots, landslide source area domains and calanchi domains are entirely coincident in all basins, supporting a cause–effect relationship. Additional plotting of the frequency characteristics of the raw data in a new way supports the interpretation that calanchi frequently initiate in landslide scars. In general though, although the S–A plots can contribute to the disentanglement of geomorphological behaviour in some complex erosional landscapes, it became apparent that in this landscape, process domains do not separate out with clarity along the A axis as suggested by theory. Despite this, an alternative, broader-scale morphoevolutive model can be proposed for the development of within-landslide calanchi, driven by changes to basin connectivity to the base channel. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planktonic foraminiferal distribution record productivity cycles: evidence from the Aptian-Albian Piobbico core (central Italy)

The Aptian-Albian 'Scisti a Fucoidi' varicoloured pelagic sediments in central Italy, show a 'couplet' alternation of carbonate-rich/carbonate-poor layers, which are interpreted as the sedimentary expression of precession (frequency 19–23 kyr). Carbonate content, chromatic variation, and planktonic foraminiferal abundance were analysed at a 1-cm spacing for a 10-m interval of the Piobbico core, specifically drilled through this formation. Spectral analysis of these parameters shows a prominent signal equated to the c . 100 kyr cycle of orbital eccentricity at a sedimentation rate of 5 mm kyr⁻¹. The coherency of the spectral response of each parameter suggests that a single mechanism controlled the whole sedimentary record. Detailed study of planktonic foraminiferal distribution of the same section at 1-mm scale resolves the Milankovitch frequencies of 41 kyr and 18 to 23 kyr, equated with the obliquity and precessional cycles. But foraminiferal abundance is not in phase with carbonate content, which was largely controlled by calcareous nannofossils, but peaked at intermediate carbonate values. The proposed model for explaining the discrepancy at the precessional level is that foraminifera thrived at intermediate values of the precession index, when the environment was only moderately fertile but stable, while during highs of the precession index, mixing of the water column increased fertility and caused calcareous nannofossil blooms and restriction of planktonic foraminifera to few and tolerant species. The resulting bimodality of foraminiferal abundance per precessional cycle appears to be recorded in the spectrum by peaks at the 11 and 14 kyr levels. Cross correlation of foraminiferal abundances with the calcium carbonate curve over 1–2 Myr intervals produces discrepant results (apparent phase lags) which we attribute to differences in the response to the fundamental eccentricity cycles.     

An experimental facility for investigating hydromagmatic eruptions at high-pressure and high-temperature with application to the importance of magma porosity for magma-water interaction

An experimental facility has been developed to investigate magma-water interaction (MWI). The facility operates in a high-pressure and high-temperature environment, with temperatures up to 1,200°C and pressures up to 200 MPa. Cylindrical sample-holders (20 by 180 mm in size) are heated conductively to yield a three phase (melt, crystals and gas) system, and then water (or other fluid) is injected into the sample through a capillary tube (diameter 0.5 mm, length ca. 1,000 mm) under controlled conditions. Pressure, volume and temperature changes are continuously recorded during every phase of the experiments. To test this facility, MWI is studied at subliquidus temperatures (800 and 900°C) and pressure (8 MPa), using a leucite tephrite sample with two different initial grain sizes. Because of the grain-size dependence of sintering, the two starting materials produce magmas with different textures at the same temperature: porous magma for large initial grain sizes and dense magma for small initial grain sizes. In these experiments 1.5 g of water at room temperature is injected into 6.0 g of partially molten sample at velocities ranging from 1 to 3 m/s. We find that the extent of fragmentation and transport caused by MWI are mainly controlled by the texture of the interacting sample with explosive interaction occurring only for porous magmas.     

THE PROMINENCE – CORONA AND THE FILAMENT – CORONA TRANSITION REGION: IS THERE ANY DIFFERENCE?

The ratio between the Extreme Ultraviolet emission of the prominence–corona transition region and that of the quiet Sun (QS) transition region is measured using observations from the CDS and SUMER instruments on board the SOHO Satellite. These results are compared with those obtained in an earlier paper, analysing the same prominence as a filament on the disk. Theoretical models predict a difference in the emission of the prominence–corona transition region when it is observed at the limb and on the disk as a filament; the aim of the present work is to provide an observational check of this difference. SUMER and CDS data provide fairly good agreement if the prominence intensity measured by SUMER is compared with the average quiet-Sun intensity, measured near the disk center; the prominence intensity relative to the average quiet-Sun level measured on the same rasters results in disagreement with CDS, due to the smaller size of the disk portion and to the very strong limb brightening present in SUMER rasters. The relative prominence to quiet-Sun intensity ratio varies from 0.2 to 0.4, depending on the line formation temperature. This value leads to a discrepancy with the results obtained in a previous study when the same prominence was observed as a filament. This discrepancy indicates that the prominence–corona transition region emission is different when emitted by different sides of the prominence.     

Electron density and temperature measurements, and abundance anomalies in the solar atmosphere

Using spectra obtained from the SUMER (Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation) spectrograph on the spacecraft SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory), we investigate the height dependence of electron density, temperature and abundance anomalies in the solar atmosphere. In particular, we present the behaviour of the solar FIP effect (the abundance enhancement of elements with first ionization potential < 10 eV in the corona with respect to photospheric values) with height above an active region observed at the solar limb, with emphasis on the so-called transition region lines.