Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

Linear Amplification of Horizontal Strong Ground Motion in Zagreb (Croatia) for a Realistic Range of Scaled Point Sources

— The linear amplification of the larger horizontal component of strong ground motion along a selected profile in the city of Zagreb is estimated by examining the synthetic waveforms corresponding to a suite of 16 realistically chosen scaled point sources. The accelerograms, computed for the average bedrock model by modal summation, are propagated through local laterally heterogeneous anelastic models by the finite-difference algorithm. The ratio of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and of the response spectra (RS), obtained by using local and bedrock models, define the PGA and RS amplification AMP(PGA) and AMP(RS), respectively. Even variations of the order of commonly observed uncertainties of only dip and rake angles of the causative fault show that both AMP(PGA) and AMP(RS) vary at some sites by more than a factor of two. It follows that, especially for strongly laterally heterogeneous structures, local effects must be determined for each of the relevant sources considering all associated uncertainties as completely as possible. Such a conclusion certainly holds for the case of the microzonation of Zagreb, where the local geology is quite complex, and the seismicity is not confined to a single seismic source zone.     

The Nile Valley of Egypt: A Major Active Graben that Magnifies Seismic Waves

— The Nile valley and the Nile delta are part of the active rift that is probably connected with the Red Sea tectonism. This zone is characterized by small-to-moderate size earthquakes that have caused extremely severe damage to recent and historical constructions. The most vulnerable area along the Nile valley is the one of Cairo-Faiyoum. Small local and large distant earthquakes could be a source of huge socio-economic damage in this area. The loose soft alluvial sediments of the Nile Canyon are the main factor behind this potential damage because they may greatly amplify the ground motion, as demonstrated by strong ground motion modelling. The largest amplification is generally concentrated along the edges of the graben and occurs at frequencies between 1 Hz and 2 Hz. This may explain the huge damage caused by distant earthquakes during recent and historical times. The distribution of intensity values during the events of 1926 and 1992 is well correlated with the modelled spatial distribution of the spectral amplification.Dr. El-Sayed passed away in Mansoura on February 11, 2003.     

Towards a knowledge base to support global change policy goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, it was adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The year after, 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) officially came into force. In 2015, GEO (Group on Earth Observation) declared to support the implementation of SDGs. The GEO Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) required a change of paradigm, moving from a data-centric approach to a more knowledge-driven one. To this end, the GEO System-of-Systems (SoS) framework may refer to the well-known Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW) paradigm. In the context of an Earth Observation (EO) SoS, a set of main elements are recognized as connecting links for generating knowledge from EO and non-EO data – e.g. social and economic datasets. These elements are: Essential Variables (EVs), Indicators and Indexes, Goals and Targets. Their generation and use requires the development of a SoS KB whose management process has evolved the GEOSS Software Ecosystem into a GEOSS Social Ecosystem. This includes: collect, formalize, publish, access, use, and update knowledge. ConnectinGEO project analysed the knowledge necessary to recognize, formalize, access, and use EVs. The analysis recognized GEOSS gaps providing recommendations on supporting global decision-making within and across different domains.     

The SCUBA HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES) – VII. Optical/IR photometry and stellar masses of submillimetre galaxies

We present estimates of the photometric redshifts, stellar masses and star formation histories of sources in the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES). This paper describes the 60 SCUBA sources detected in the Lockman Hole covering an area of ∼320 arcmin². Using photometry spanning the B band to 8 μm, we find that the average SCUBA source forms a significant fraction of its stars in an early period of star formation and that most of the remainder forms in a shorter more intense burst around the redshift it is observed. This trend does not vary significantly with source redshift. However, the sources show a clear increase in stellar mass with redshift, consistent with downsizing. In terms of spectral energy distribution types, only two out of the 51 sources we have obtained photometric redshifts for are best fitted by a quasar-like spectrum, with approximately 80 per cent of the sources being best fitted with late-type spectra (Sc, Im and starburst). By including photometry at 850 μm, we conclude that the average SCUBA source is forming stars at a rate somewhere between 6 and 30 times the rate implied from the rest-frame optical in a dust obscured burst and that this burst creates 15–65 per cent of the total stellar mass. Using a simplistic calculation, we estimate from the average star formation history that between one in five and one in 15 bright  ( L _*+ 2 < L _optical < L _*− 1 mag)  galaxies in the field over the interval  0 < z < 3  will at some point in their lifetime experience a similar energetic dusty burst of star formation. Finally, we compute the evolution of the star formation rate density and find it peaks around   z ∼ 2  .     

Evaluation of lindane diffusion along the southeastern Adriatic coastal strip (Mediterranean Sea): a case study in an Albanian industrial area

This study aimed to analyze the impact at sea of a pesticide factory located 7 km north of Durres (Albania) by investigating a lowland area under the sea situated 0.7 km from the shoreline. The main product of this factory was lindane. Production ceased in 1991 during the Albanian civil war, and a large amount of industrial waste was dispersed over the ground surrounding the factory, resulting in a high level of lindane pollution. A water-scoop channels the ground water accumulated around the disused factory directly into the sea. The concentrations of lindane in sediments collected along the coasts of the region ranged from 0.60 to 22.55 ng g(-1). The average concentration in the muscles of fish did not exceed the limits specified by European Commission legislation, whereas the concentration in the liver did exceed these limits; consequently, liver is not recommended for consumption.     

Hydrogeological Changes Related to the Umbria–Marche Earthquake of 26 September 1997 (Central Italy)

Evidences of variations of the hydrologic regime have been observed after the Umbria–Marche seismic sequence, started on September 26th 1997, at the boundary between Umbria and Marche regions, central Italy. In order to quantify the hydrological variations, several data regarding groundwater level, spring discharge and river flow rates, have been collected from local authorities and mineral water companies. They allowed to confine the area affected by anomalies and to quantify the hydrological variations by a comparison with the average yearly regime, estimated from the data referring to previous years. An attempt to identify precursor phenomena has also been carried out. The results of the analysis sustain the close connection of two water reservoirs, the Umbria–Marche ridge and the Valnerina unit, that have both been affected by changes of the hydrologic regime. Two of the river gauge stations registered anomalies several months before the crisis started, acting as earthquake precursors.     

Intrusive Mechanisms at Mt. Etna Forerunning the July-August 2001 Eruption from Seismic and Ground Deformation Data

In this work we present seismological and ground deformation evidence for the phase preparing the July 18 to August 9, 2001 flank eruption at Etna. The analysis performed, through data from the permanent seismic and ground deformation networks, highlighted a strong relationship between seismic strain release at depth and surface deformation. This joint analysis provided strong constraints on the magma rising mechanisms. We show that in the last ten years, after the 1991–1993 eruption, an overall accumulation of tension has affected the volcano. Then we investigate the months preceding the 2001 eruption. In particular, we analyse the strong seismic swarm on April 20–24, 2001, comprising more than 200 events (M_max = 3.6) with prevalent dextral shear fault mechanisms in the western flank. The swarm showed a ca. NE-SW earthquake alignment which, in agreement with previous cases, can be interpreted as the response of the medium to an intrusive process along the approximately NNW-SSE volcano-genetic trend. These mechanisms, leading to the July 18 to August 9, 2001 flank eruption, are analogous to ones observed some months before the 1991–1993 flank eruption and, more recently, in January 1998 before the February-November 1999 summit eruption.