1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria-marche地震前的水文地质变化

分析了1997年9月26日意大利中部Umbria与marche交界地区的Umbria-marche地震序列引起的水文体系的变化。为了量化水文体系的变化,从地方当局和矿泉水公司收集了地下水位、泉水的流量以及河水流速等的资料,这些资料可以确定异常的影响面积,并且可以通过与从震前几年资料估算出的年平均体系的对比来量化异常的变化,试图对异常进行判定。分析结果表明,两个含水单元,即Umbria-marche山峰和Val-nerina单元,具有紧密的联系,它们都由于水文系统的改变而受到影响。地震前几个月两条河流测量站记录到了异常变化,认为是地震前兆异常。     

The Main Features of the Local Geological Conditions Can Explain the Macroseismic Intensity Caused in Xiji-Langfu (Beijing) by the Ms = 7.7 Tangshan 1976 Earthquake

—The special geological conditions in the Xiji-Langfu area are the main reason for the anomalous high macroseismic intensity caused by the Tangshan, 1976 earthquake. The area is formed by deep deposits - mainly alluvium sands and clays poorly consolidated and with high water content - that have been trapped by the Xiadian fault. From simulated ground motion we have computed quantities commonly used for engineering purposes like the acceleration maximum amplitude (AMAX) and the total energy of ground motion (W), which is related to the Arias Intensity. The thick low velocity deposits are responsible for the large increment of the values of AMAX and W inside the basin. On the two sides of the Xiadian fault AMAX and W can vary by 200% and 700% respectively, and these variations are quite stable with varying thickness of the sedimentary deposit used in the models. With the existing relationships between acceleration (AMAX) and macroseismic intensity (I) our results can explain the large values of I observed in the Xiji-Langfu area, in connection with the Tangshan earthquake.     

Site-specific Microzonation Study in Delhi Metropolitan City by 2-D Modelling of SH and P-SV Waves

— Delhi – the capital of India lies on a severe earthquake hazard threat not only from local earthquakes but also from Himalayan events just 200–250 km apart. The seismic ground motion in a part of Delhi City is computed with a hybrid technique based on the modal summation and the finite-difference scheme for site-specific strong ground motion modelling. Complete realistic SH and #E5/E5#-SV wave seismograms are computed along two geological cross sections, (1) north-south, from Inter State Bus Terminal (ISBT) to Sewanagar and (2) east-west, from Tilak Bridge to Punjabi Bagh. Two real earthquake sources of July 15, 1720 (MMI=IX, M=7.4) and August 27, 1960 (M=6.0) have been used in modelling. The response spectra ratio (RSR), i.e. the response spectra computed from the signals synthesized along the laterally varying section and normalized by the response spectra computed from the corresponding signals, synthesized for the bedrock reference regional model, have been determined. As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal amplitude, particularly in the radial and transverse components. To further check the site-effects, we reversed the source location to the other side of the cross section and recomputed the site amplifications. There are only a few sites where a large amplification is invariant with respect to the two source locations considered. The RSR ranges between 5 to 10 in the frequency range from 2.8 to 3.7 Hz for the radial and transverse components of motion along the NS cross section. Along the EW cross section RSR varies between 3.5 to 7.5 in the frequency range from 3.5 to 4.1 Hz. The amplification of the vertical component is considerable at high frequency (>4 Hz.) whereas it is negligible in lower frequency range.     

华北地区地震地面危害分布的定量估算

根据1500年以来的地震活动,用确定性方法对华北地区地震地面危害分布图进行了定量计算。震源和研究区域均用网格单元表示,网格点的间距取为0.2°。计算中主要的输入参量为该地区的地震目录、震源机制、地震活动水平、深部结构模型等。各个单元上模拟的理论地震图考虑到了来自不同地点的震源和传播路径的影响。计算获得了华北地区最大地面运动和设计地面加速度(DGA)的分布图。最大DGA值位于北京以东,达0.75g。该结果可对未来华北地区地震危害的分布特征研究和该地区的防震减灾工作提供依据     

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for target-oriented and interval-oriented amplitude versus angle inversions with non-parametric priors and non-linear forward modellings

In geophysical inverse problems, the posterior model can be analytically assessed only in case of linear forward operators, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture, or generalized Gaussian prior models, continuous model properties, and Gaussian-distributed noise contaminating the observed data. For this reason, one of the major challenges of seismic inversion is to derive reliable uncertainty appraisals in cases of complex prior models, non-linear forward operators and mixed discrete-continuous model parameters. We present two amplitude versus angle inversion strategies for the joint estimation of elastic properties and litho-fluid facies from pre-stack seismic data in case of non-parametric mixture prior distributions and non-linear forward modellings. The first strategy is a two-dimensional target-oriented inversion that inverts the amplitude versus angle responses of the target reflections by adopting the single-interface full Zoeppritz equations. The second is an interval-oriented approach that inverts the pre-stack seismic responses along a given time interval using a one-dimensional convolutional forward modelling still based on the Zoeppritz equations. In both approaches, the model vector includes the facies sequence and the elastic properties of P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. The distribution of the elastic properties at each common-mid-point location (for the target-oriented approach) or at each time-sample position (for the time-interval approach) is assumed to be multimodal with as many modes as the number of litho-fluid facies considered. In this context, an analytical expression of the posterior model is no more available. For this reason, we adopt a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically evaluate the posterior uncertainties. With the aim of speeding up the convergence of the probabilistic sampling, we adopt a specific recipe that includes multiple chains, a parallel tempering strategy, a delayed rejection updating scheme and hybridizes the standard Metropolis–Hasting algorithm with the more advanced differential evolution Markov chain method. For the lack of available field seismic data, we validate the two implemented algorithms by inverting synthetic seismic data derived on the basis of realistic subsurface models and actual well log data. The two approaches are also benchmarked against two analytical inversion approaches that assume Gaussian-mixture-distributed elastic parameters. The final predictions and the convergence analysis of the two implemented methods proved that our approaches retrieve reliable estimations and accurate uncertainties quantifications with a reasonable computational effort.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

On the feedback between water turbidity and microphytobenthos growth in shallow tidal environments

Shallow tidal environments (e.g. bays, estuaries, lagoons) represent one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, and they are threatened by current climate change and increasing human pressure. Monitoring the bio-morphodynamic evolution of these environments is therefore a crucial task that requires a detailed and holistic scrutiny. The present study aims to investigate the temperature of the water–sediment continuum, its effect on the related microphytobenthos (MPB) growth and the related bio-stabilization of the bed sediment surface under different water depth and water turbidity conditions. We investigated the vertical energy transfer and the temperature dynamics by applying a 1-D model to a shallow coastal lagoon. Our results show that the water temperature does not substantially change under different turbidity conditions, whereas the sediment temperature exhibits important changes. Two major factors driving the MPB photosynthetic growth are the sediment surface temperature and the light availability at the sediment bed, which can both be computed using the vertical energy transfer model. We observed that, in general, clear water conditions better promote MPB growth over the entire year. The limiting factor for the photosynthetic process is usually the light availability at the bottom, which increases under clear water conditions. As MPB provides a bio-stabilizing effect on the bed sediments by producing a biofilm on the sediment surface that reduces sediment resuspension, our results suggest a positive feedback between MPB growth and water column turbidity. Furthermore, MPB growth and the related sediment bio-stabilization are clearly affected by the seasonal variation of surface sediment temperature and light availability. This seasonal variation of MPB growth rate and surface sediment bio-stabilization must be considered when studying the long-term morphodynamic evolution of tidal environments. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Origin of mud in turbidites and hybrid event beds: Insight from ponded mudstone caps of the Castagnola turbidite system (north-west Italy)

The partitioning of different grain-size classes in gravity flow deposits is one of the key characteristics used to infer depositional processes. Turbidites have relatively clean sandstones with most of their clay deposited as part of a mudstone cap or as a distal mudstone layer, whereas sand-bearing debrites commonly comprise mixtures of sand grains and interstitial clay; hybrid event beds develop alternations of clean and dirty (clay-rich) sandstones in varying proportions. Analysis of co-genetic mudstone caps in terms of thickness and composition is a novel approach that can provide new insight into gravity flow depositional processes. Bed thickness data from the ponded Castagnola system show that turbidites contain more clay overall than do hybrid event beds. The Castagnola system is characterized by deposits of two very different petrographic types. Thanks to this duality, analyses of sandstone and mudstone composition allow inference of which proportion of the clay in each of the deposit types was acquired en route. In combination with standard sedimentological observations the new data allow insight into the likely characteristics of their parent flows. Clean turbidites were deposited by lower concentration, long duration, erosive, muddy turbidity currents which were more efficient at fractionating clay particles away from their basal layer. Hybrid event beds were deposited by shorter duration, higher-concentration, less-erosive sandier flows which were less efficient at clay fractionation. The results are consistent with data from other turbidite systems (for example, Marnoso-arenacea). The approach represents a new method to infer the controls on the degree of clay partitioning in gravity flow deposits.     

An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.