Process‐based hydrological modelling: The potential of a bottom‐up approach for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments

Conceptual rainfall–runoff models are a valuable tool for predictions in ungauged catchments. However, most of them rely on calibration to determine parameter values. Improving the representation of runoff processes in models is an attractive alternative to calibration. Such an approach requires a straightforward, a priori parameter allocation procedure applicable on a wide range of spatial scales. However, such a procedure has not been developed yet. In this paper, we introduce a process‐based runoff generation module (RGM‐PRO) as a spin‐off of the traditional runoff generation module of the PREVAH hydrological modelling system. RGM‐PRO is able to exploit information from maps of runoff types, which are developed on the basis of field investigations and expert knowledge. It is grid based, and within each grid cell, the process heterogeneity is considered to avoid information loss due to grid resolution. The new module is event based, and initial conditions are assimilated and downscaled from continuous simulations of PREVAH, which are also available for real‐time applications. Four parameter allocation strategies were developed, on the basis of the results of sprinkling experiments on 60‐m² hillslope plots at several grassland locations in Switzerland, and were tested on five catchments on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps. For the same catchments, simulation results obtained with the best parameter allocation strategy were compared with those obtained with different configurations of the traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, which was also applied as an event‐based module here. These configurations include a version that avoids calibration, one that transfers calibrated parameters, and one that uses regionalised parameter values. RGM‐PRO simulated heavy events in a more realistic way than the uncalibrated traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, and, in some instances, it even exceeded the performance of the calibrated traditional one. The use of information on the spatial distribution of runoff types additionally proved to be valuable as a regionalisation technique and showed advantages over the other regionalisation approaches, also in terms of robustness and transferability.     

Structural styles,hydrocarbon prospects,and potential in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau,north Pakistan

The Salt Range/Potwar Plateau (SRPP) is part of the Himalayan foreland and an important petroleum province in north Pakistan. The hydrocarbons are commonly produced from stacked Cambrian to Eocene clastic and carbonate reservoirs which have an average thickness of 1 km. These strata are overlain by at least 5 km of Miocene and younger continental molasse sedimentation in the deepest part of the foreland basin. Surface and subsurface (seismic interpretations and borehole data) geology combined with the timing and the patterns of sedimentation has allowed to interpret the deformation as thin skinned, with a detachment in weak Eocambrian evaporates and the development of ramp-and-flat structures, since about 8 Ma. We have reviewed the structural interpretations with new borehole logs, field geology, and reserve estimates in this paper to precisely define oil-field structures with a view on future exploration. As a result of this work, 12 oil fields are classified as three detachment folds, four fault-propagation folds, four pop-ups, and one triangle zone structure. The latter two are identified as better prospects with the last one as the best with estimated reserves of 51 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Hence, the triangle zones along with other ramp-and-flat structures from the North Potwar Deformed Zone (NPDZ) are recognized to provide potential future prospects. Finally, a 40-km-long structural cross section from NPDZ is used to discuss complex deformation of the triangle zone and duplex structures as future potential prospects. About 55 km of shortening across the NPDZ during Plio-Pleistocene time is calculated, which has important bearing on the geometry of prospects, reserve calculations, and the future exploration.     

The COST733 circulation type classification software: an example for surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe

In the framework of the COST733 Action ??Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions?? a new circulation type classification software (hereafter, referred to as cost733class software) is developed. The cost733class software contains a variety of (European) classification methods and is flexible towards choice of domain of interest, input variables, time step, number of circulation types, sequencing and (weighted) target variables. This work introduces the capabilities of the cost733class software in which the resulting circulation types (CTs) from various circulation type classifications (CTCs) are applied on observed summer surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe. Firstly, the main characteristics of the CTCs in terms of circulation pattern frequencies are addressed using the baseline COST733 catalogue (cat 2.0), at present the latest product of the new cost733class software. In a second step, the probabilistic Brier skill score is used to quantify the explanatory power of all classifications in terms of the maximum 8 hourly mean ozone concentrations exceeding the 120-??g/m³ threshold; this was based on ozone concentrations from 130 Central European measurement stations. Averaged evaluation results over all stations indicate generally higher performance of CTCs with a higher number of types. Within the subset of methodologies with a similar number of types, the results suggest that the use of CTCs based on optimisation algorithms are performing slightly better than those which are based on other algorithms (predefined thresholds, principal component analysis and leader algorithms). The results are further elaborated by exploring additional capabilities of the cost733class software. Sensitivity experiments are performed using different domain sizes, input variables, seasonally based classifications and multiple-day sequencing. As an illustration, CTCs which are also conditioned towards temperature with various weights are derived and tested similarly. All results exploit a physical interpretation by adapting the environment-to-circulation approach, providing more detailed information on specific synoptic conditions prevailing on days with high surface ozone concentrations. This research does not intend to bring forward a favourite classification methodology or construct a statistical ozone forecasting tool but should be seen as an introduction to the possibilities of the cost733class software. It this respect, the results presented here can provide a basic user support for the cost733class software and the development of a more user- or application-specific CTC approach.     

An exploratory study on the use of enzyme activities as sediment tracers: biochemical fingerprints?

Little information exists on the potential of soil enzyme activities,which are sensitive to soil properties and management,for the characterization of sediment sources at the catchment scale.The objective of this study is to explore and evaluate enzyme activity as tracer for sediment fingerprinting in the Hiv catchment(55 km~2),Iran.Therefore,four enzymes were measured from 42 different sampling sites,covering three sediment source areas(rangeland/surface erosion,orchard/surface erosion,and streambank erosion),as well as from 12 sediment samples from reservoir check dams (sediment sinks).The results indicate that,based upon backward mode discriminant analysis,βglucosidase and dehydrogenase,allowed more than 95%of the samples to be correctly assigned to their source areas.These enzymes were selected as input data for a mixing-model to determine the relative contribution of the sampled sediment sources.The mean contributions from rangeland, orchard and streambank sources in the study area were estimated as 11.3%,15.1%and 73.7%, respectively.Using geochemical tracers,the mean contribution from rangeland,orchard and streambank sources was estimated as 14.1%,9.5%and 74.8%,respectively.Combined biochemical and geochemical tracers,similar values were obtained(18.7%,10.7%and 70.7%,respectively).Our results indicate that soil enzyme activity allows for a good characterization of sediment sources,and can provide a complementary tool to currently existing sediment fingerprinting approaches.However, the method should be also tested in other regions.     

Phosphate oxygen isotopes: Insights into sedimentary phosphorus cycling from the Benguela upwelling system

Marine sediments are the main sink in the oceanic phosphorus (P) cycle. The activity of benthic microorganisms is decisive for regeneration, reflux, or burial of inorganic phosphate (P_i), which has a strong impact on marine productivity. Recent formation of phosphorites on the continental shelf and a succession of different sedimentary environments make the Benguela upwelling system a prime region for studying the role of microbes in P biogeochemistry. The oxygen isotope signature of pore water phosphate (δ¹⁸O_P) carries characteristic information of microbial P cycling: Intracellular turnover of phosphorylated biomolecules results in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water, while enzymatic regeneration of P_i from organic matter produces distinct offsets from equilibrium. The balance of these two processes is the major control for δ¹⁸O_P.Our study assesses the importance of microbial P cycling relative to regeneration of P_i from organic matter from a transect across the Namibian continental shelf and slope by combining pore water chemistry (sulfate, sulfide, ferrous iron, P_i), steady-state turnover rate modeling, and oxygen isotope geochemistry of P_i.We found δ¹⁸O_P values in a range from 12.8‰ to 26.6‰, both in equilibrium as well as pronounced disequilibrium with water. Our data show a trend towards regeneration signatures (disequilibrium) under low mineralization activity and low P_i concentrations, and microbial turnover signatures (equilibrium) under high mineralization activity and high P_i concentrations. These findings are opposite to observations from water column studies where regeneration signatures were found to coincide with high mineralization activity and high P_i concentrations. It appears that preferential P_i regeneration in marine sediments does not necessarily coincide with a disequilibrium δ¹⁸O_P signature. We propose that microbial P_i uptake strategies, which are controlled by P_i availability, are decisive for the alteration of the isotope signature. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of efficient microbial P_i turnover (equilibrium signatures) in the phosphogenic sediments of the Benguela upwelling system.     

Characteristics of a paleosol and its implication for the Critical Zone development,Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado,USA

Activity and stability phases as well as geomorphic processes within the Critical Zone are well known. Erosion and deposition of sediments represent activity; soils represent geomorphic stability phases. Data are presented from a 4 m deep sediment section that was dated by luminescence techniques. Upslope erosion and resulting sedimentation started in the late Pleistocene around 18 ka until 12 ka. Conditions at the study site then changed, which led to the formation of a well-developed soil. Radiocarbon dating of the organic matter yielded ages between 8552 and 8995 cal. BP. From roughly 6.2 to 5.4 ka another activity phase accompanied by according sediment deposition buried the soil and a new soil, a Cambisol, was formed at the surface. The buried soil is a strongly developed Luvisol. The black colors in the upper part of the buried soil are not the result of pedogenic accumulation of normal organic matter within an A-horizon. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy clearly documents the high amount of aromatic components (charcoal), which is responsible for the dark color. This indicates severe burning events at the site and the smaller charcoal dust (black carbon) was transported to deeper parts of the profile during the process of clay translocation.     

Statistical distribution of gravitational-lensing excursion angles: winding ways to us from the deep Universe

We investigate statistical distributions of differences in gravitational-lensing deflections between two light rays, the so-called lensing excursion angles. A probability distribution function of the lensing excursion angles, which plays a key role in estimates of lensing effects on angular clustering of objects (such as galaxies, quasi-stellar objects and also the cosmic microwave background temperature map), is known to consist of two components: a Gaussian core and an exponential tail. We use numerical gravitational-lensing experiments in a ΛCDM cosmology for quantifying these two components. We especially focus on the physical processes responsible for generating these two components. We develop a simple empirical model for the exponential tail which allows us to explore its origin. We find that the tail is generated by the coherent lensing scatter by massive haloes with   M > 10¹⁴  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  at   z < 1  and that its exponential shape arises due to the exponential cut-off of the halo mass function at that mass range. On scales larger than 1 arcmin, the tail does not have a practical influence on the lensing effects on the angular clustering. Our model predicts that the coherent scatter may have non-negligible effects on angular clustering at subarcminute scales.     

Reconstruction of the Ice Age glaciation in the southern slopes of Mt. Everest, Cho Oyu, Lhotse and Makalu (Himalaya) (Part 1)

In the Khumbu-and Khumbakarna Himalaya an ice stream network and valley glacier system has been reconstructed for the last glacial period (Würmian, Last Ice Age, Isotope stage 4–2, 60–18 Ka BP, Stage 0) with glaciogeomorphological and sedimentological methods. It was a part of the glacier system of the Himalaya and has communicated across transfluence passes with the neighbouring ice stream networks toward the W and E. The ice stream network has also received inflow from the N, from a Tibetan ice stream network, by the Kyetrak-Nangpa-Bote Koshi Drangka (Valley) in the W, by the W-Rongbuk glacier valley into the Ngozumpa Drangka (Valley), by the Central Rongbuk glacier valley into the Khumbu Drangka (Valley) and by the antecedent Arun Nadi transverse-valley in the E of the investigation area. The ice thickness of the valley glacier sections, the surface of which was situated above the snow-line, amounted to 1000–1450 m. The most extended parent valley glaciers have been measured approx. 70 km in length (Dudh Koshi glacier), 67 km (Barun-Arun glacier) and 80 km (Arun glacier). The tongue end of the Arun glacier has flowed down to c. 500 m and that of the Dudh Koshi glacier to c. 900 m asl. At heights of the catchment areas of 8481 (or 8475) m (Makalu), i.e., 8848 (or 8872) m (Mt. Everest, Sagarmatha, Chogolungma) this is a vertical distance of the Ice Age glaciation of c. 8000 m. The steep faces towering up to 2000 m above the névé areas of the 6000–7000 m-high surfaces of the ice stream network were located 2000–5000 m above the ELA. Accordingly, their temperatures were so low, that their rock surfaces were free of flank ice and ice balconies. From the maximum past glacier extension up to the current glacier margins, 13 (altogether 14) glacier stages have been differentiated and in part 14C-dated. They were four glacier stages of the late glacial period, three of the neoglacial period and six of the historical period. By means of 130 medium-sized valley glaciers the corresponding ELA-depressions have been calculated in comparison with the current courses of the orographic snow-line. The number of the glacier stages since the maximum glaciation approx. agrees with that e.g. in the Alps and the Rocky Mountains since the last glacial period. Accordingly, it is interpreted as an indication of the Würmian age (last glacial period) of the lowest ice margin positions. The current climatic, average glacier snow-line in the research area runs about 5500 m asl. The snow-line depression (ELA) of the last glacial period (Würm) calculated by four methods has run about 3870 m asl, so that an ELA-depression of c. 1630 m has been determined. This corresponds to a lowering of the annual temperature by c. 8, i.e., 10°C according to the specific humid conditions at that time.     

Tidal torques and galactic warps

%We study the evolution of galactic disks subject to tidal torques motivated by cosmological N-body simulations using analytic and numerical techniques. We find that self-gravitating disks subject to these torques resemble observed warped galaxies. The warps develop at a local surface density of 70 M _⊙ pc^-2 and move out through the disk at a rate that depends on the surface density of the disk. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.