Science-based and stakeholder-driven marine protected area network planning: A successful case study from north central California

The planning process for California's Marine Life Protection Act in north central California represents a case study in the design of a regional component of a statewide network of marine protected areas (MPAs) for improved ecosystem protection. We describe enabling factors, such as a legislative mandate, political will, and adequate capacity and funding that fostered a successful planning process. We identify strategic principles that guided the design of a transparent public planning process that delivered regional MPA network proposals, which both met science guidelines and achieved a high level of support among stakeholders. We also describe key decision support elements (spatial data, planning tools, and scientific evaluation) that were essential for designing, evaluating, and refining alternative MPA network proposals and for informing decision-makers.     

The dynamics of mountain erosion: Cirque growth slows as landscapes age

Glacial cirques are widely used palaeoenvironmental indicators, and are key to understanding the role of glaciers in shaping mountain topography. However, notable uncertainty persists regarding the rate and timing of cirque erosion. In order to address this uncertainty, we analyse the dimensions of 2208 cirques in Britain and Ireland and model ice accumulation to investigate the degree of coupling between glacier occupation times and cirque growth. Results indicate that during the last ~120 ka, cirques were glacier-free for an average of 52.0 ± 21.2 ka (43 ± 18%); occupied by small (largely cirque-confined) glaciers for 16.2 ± 9.9 ka (14 ± 8%); and occupied by large glaciers, including ice sheets, for 51.8 ± 18.6 ka (43 ± 16%). Over the entire Quaternary (i.e. 2.6 Ma), we estimate that cirques were glacier-free for 1.1 ± 0.5 Ma; occupied by small glaciers for 0.3 ± 0.2 Ma; and occupied by large glaciers for 1.1 ± 0.4 Ma. Comparing occupation times to cirque depths, and calculating required erosion rates, reveals that continuous cirque growth during glacier occupation is unlikely. Instead, we propose that cirques attained much of their size during the first occupation of a non-glacially sculpted landscape (perhaps during the timeframe of a single glacial cycle). During subsequent glacier occupations, cirque growth may have slowed considerably, with the highest rates of subglacial erosion focused during periods of marginal (small glacier) glaciation. We propose comparatively slow rates of growth following initial cirque development because a ‘least resistance’ shape is formed, and as cirques deepen, sediment becomes trapped subglacially, partly protecting the bedrock from subsequent erosion. In support of the idea of rapid cirque growth, we present evidence from northern British Columbia, where cirques of comparable size to those in Britain and Ireland developed in less than 140 ka. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Origin of Carboniferous sandstones fringing the northern margin of the Wales‐Brabant Massif: insights from detrital zircon ages

A study of detrital zircon age populations in Namurian–Westphalian (Carboniferous) sandstones in the southern Central Pennine Basin of the UK has revealed considerable complexity in their provenance history. The Pendleian–Marsdenian Morridge Formation, which is known to have been derived from the Wales‐Brabant Massif to the south on the basis of palaeocurrent and petrographic information, is dominated by zircons ultimately derived from the Caledonian belt to the north. These zircons were recycled from sandstones of northern origin that had been previously deposited over the massif during Middle to Late Devonian times. The Morridge Formation also includes Late Neoproterozoic zircons of local Wales‐Brabant Massif origin. The south lobe of the Yeadonian Rough Rock has been previously interpreted as having a complex provenance including sediment of northern origin interbedded with sediment ascribed to a Wales‐Brabant Massif source. However, the zircon spectrum lacks a Late Neoproterozoic component that would have been diagnostic of input from the Wales‐Brabant Massif, and the provenance history of the Rough Rock south lobe therefore remains enigmatic. The Langsettian Ludgbridge Conglomerate is dominated by Late Neoproterozoic zircons of Wales‐Brabant Massif origin, but even in this evidently proximal deposit, the provenance is complex since the main zircon group (ca. 640 Ma) cannot be matched with known local Neoproterozoic basement sources. The data either indicate the presence of hitherto‐unknown magmatic rocks of this age adjacent to the South Staffordshire coalfield or indicate that the zircons were recycled from sediment with a more distal origin. Finally, the Duckmantian Top Hard Rock contains zircons that can be reconciled with a source in the Irish Caledonides, consistent with the palaeocurrent evidence, supplemented by zircons derived from the Wales‐Brabant Massif, possibly including the Monian Composite Terrane of Anglesey. The study reinforces the important message that failure to recognize the presence of recycled zircon could lead to erroneous reconstructions of sediment provenance and transport history. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

UVES Abundances of Stars in Nearby Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a galaxy in possession of a good quantity of gas must want to form stars. It is the details of how and why that baffle us all. The simplest theories either would have this process a carefully self-regulated affair, or one that goes completely out of control and is capable of wrecking the galaxy which hosts it. Of course the majority of galaxies seem to amble along somewhere between these two extremes, and the mean properties tend to favour a quiescent self-regulated evolutionary scenario. But there area variety of observations which require us to invoke transitory ‘bursts’ of star-formation at one time or another in most galaxy types. Several nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies have clearly determined star-formation histories with apparent periods of zero star formation followed by periods of fairly active star formation. If we are able to understand what separated these bursts we would understand several important phenomena in galaxy evolution. Were these galaxies able to clear out their gas reservoir in a burst of star formation? How did this gas return? or did it? Have these galaxies receieved gas from the IGM instead? Could stars from these types of galaxy contribute significantly to the halo population in our Galaxy? To answer these questions we need to combine accurate stellar photometry and Colour-Magnitude Diagram interpretation with detailed metal abundances to combine a star-formation rate versus time with a range of element abundances with time. Different elements trace different evolutionary process (e.g., relative contributions of type I and II supernovae). We often aren't even sure of the abundance spread in these galaxies. We have collected detailed high resolution UVES spectra of four nearby dwarf spheroidal galaxies (Sculptor, Fornax, Leo I &; Carina) to begin to answer these questions. This is a precursor study to a more complete study with FLAMES. We presented at this meeting the initial results for the Sculptor and Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxies which have been previously had single element (low resolution) calcium abundance studies (Tolstoy et al., 2001). See Figures 1 and 2.     

Mining candidate causal relationships in movement patterns

In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships.     

Earthquake response of a multiblock nuclear reactor graphite core: Experimental model vs simulations

The complex dynamics of a quarter‐scale model of a graphite nuclear reactor core, representative of the second generation of British advanced gas‐cooled nuclear reactors, is investigated numerically and experimentally. Advanced gas‐cooled nuclear reactor cores are polygonal, multilayer, arrays of graphite bricks, with each brick allowed to rock by design relative to each other in accordance with the boundary conditions. A 35 000 DOF, nonlinear finite element model of the core created by Atkins Nuclear, was analysed on a high performance computing facility at the University of Bristol, and a corresponding 8 t physical model, equipped with 3200 data acquisition channels, was built and tested on the University of Bristol 6‐DOF shaking table. In this paper, the two models are subjected to a series of (1) synthetic earthquake and (2) idealised harmonic input motions. The experimental data are used to compare and verify the two models and explore the dynamics of the core. A kinematic model of the response is also developed based solely on geometric constraints. The results are presented in the form of response maps and graphs. Important conclusions are drawn as to the dynamics and earthquake response of such systems, which inform numerical model validation. It is found that contrary to the case of a small number of rocking blocks that exhibit highly complex response patterns, the behaviour of the model at hand is both smooth and repeatable. An analogy between the response of the core and that of dense granular matter exhibiting particle interlocking and dilatancy is highlighted.     

Attenuation effect on seasonal basin-scale water storage changes from GRACE time-variable gravity

In order to effectively recover surface mass or geoid height changes from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity models, spatial smoothing is required to minimize errors from noise. Spatial smoothing, such as Gaussian smoothing, not only reduces the noise but also attenuates the real signals. Here we investigate possible amplitude attenuations and phase changes of seasonal water storage variations in four drainage basins (Amazon, Mississippi, Ganges and Zambezi) using an advanced global land data assimilation system. It appears that Gaussian smoothing significantly affects GRACE-estimated basin-scale seasonal water storage changes, e.g., in the case of 800 km smoothing, annual amplitudes are reduced by about 25–40%, while annual phases are shifted by up to 10°. With these effects restored, GRACE-estimated water storage changes are consistently larger than model estimates, indicating that the land surface model appears to underestimate terrestrial water storage change. Our analysis based on simulation suggests that normalized attenuation effects (from Gaussian smoothing) on seasonal water storage change are relatively insensitive to the magnitude of the true signal. This study provides a numerical approach that can be used to restore seasonal water storage change in the basins from spatially smoothed GRACE data.     

Monument-antenna effects on GPS coordinate time series with application to vertical rates in Antarctica

We examine the electromagnetic coupling of a GPS antenna–monument pair in terms of its simulated affect on long GPS coordinate time series. We focus on the Earth and Polar Observing System (POLENET) monument design widely deployed in Antarctica and Greenland in projects interested particularly in vertical velocities. We base our tests on an absolute robot calibration that included the top ~0.15 m of the monument and use simulations to assess its effect on site coordinate time series at eight representative POLENET sites in Antarctica over the period 2000.0–2011.0. We show that the neglect of this calibration would introduce mean coordinate bias, and most importantly for velocity estimation, coordinate noise which is highly sensitive to observation geometry and hence site location and observation period. Considering only sub-periods longer than 2.5 years, we show vertical site velocities may be biased by up to ±0.4 mm/year, and biases up to 0.2 mm/year may persist for observation spans of 8 years. Changing between uniform and elevation-dependent observation weighting alters the time series but does not remove the velocity biases, nor does ambiguity fixing. The effect on the horizontal coordinates is negligible. The ambiguities fixed series spectra show noise between flicker and random walk with near-white noise at the highest frequencies, with mean spectral indices (frequencies <20 cycles per year) of approximately −1.3 (uniform weighting) and −1.4 (elevation-dependent weighting). While the results are likely highly monument specific, they highlight the importance of accounting for monument effects when analysing vertical coordinate time series and velocities for the highest precision and accuracy geophysical studies.