The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy

This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement.     

Hydrogeochemical and multi-tracer investigations of arsenic-affected aquifers in semi-arid West Africa

The semi-arid Sahel regions of West Africa rely heavily on groundwater from shallow to moderately deep(100 m b.g.l.)crystalline bedrock aquifers for drinking water production.Groundwater quality may be affected by high geogenic arsenic(As)concentrations(10μg/L)stemming from the oxidation of sulphide minerals(pyrite,arsenopyrite)in mineralised zones.These aquifers are still little investigated,especially concerning groundwater residence times and the influence of the annual monsoon season on groundwater chemistry.To gain insights on the temporal aspects of As contamination,we have used isotope tracers(noble gases,~3H,stable water isotopes(~2 H,~(18)O))and performed hydrochemical analyses on groundwater abstracted from tube wells and dug wells in a small study area in southwestern Burkina Faso.Results revealed a great variability in groundwater properties(e.g.redox conditions,As concentrations,water level,residence time)over spatial scales of only a few hundred metres,characteristic of the highly heterogeneous fractured underground.Elevated As levels are found in oxic groundwater of circum-neutral pH and show little relation with any of the measured parameters.Arsenic concentrations are relatively stable over the course of the year,with little effect seen by the monsoon.Groundwater residence time does not seem to have an influence on As concentrations,as elevated As can be found both in groundwater with short(50 a)and long(10~3 a)residence times as indicated by ~3He/~4He ratios spanning three orders of magnitude.These results support the hypothesis that the proximity to mineralised zones is the most crucial factor controlling As concentrations in the observed redox/pH conditions.The existence of very old water portions with residence times10~3 years already at depths of50 m b.g.l.is a new finding for the shallow fractured bedrock aquifers of Burkina Faso,suggesting that overexploitation of these relatively low-yielding aquifers may be an issue in the future.     

Late Cretaceous porphyry Cu and epithermal Cu–Au association in the Southern Panagyurishte District,Bulgaria: the paired Vlaykov Vruh and Elshitsa deposits

Vlaykov Vruh–Elshitsa represents the best example of paired porphyry Cu and epithermal Cu–Au deposits within the Late Cretaceous Apuseni–Banat–Timok–Srednogorie magmatic and metallogenic belt of Eastern Europe. The two deposits are part of the NW trending Panagyurishte magmato-tectonic corridor of central Bulgaria. The deposits were formed along the SW flank of the Elshitsa volcano-intrusive complex and are spatially associated with N110-120-trending hypabyssal and subvolcanic bodies of granodioritic composition. At Elshitsa, more than ten lenticular to columnar massive ore bodies are discordant with respect to the host rock and are structurally controlled. A particular feature of the mineralization is the overprinting of an early stage high-sulfidation mineral assemblage (pyrite ± enargite ± covellite ± goldfieldite) by an intermediate-sulfidation paragenesis with a characteristic Cu–Bi–Te–Pb–Zn signature forming the main economic parts of the ore bodies. The two stages of mineralization produced two compositionally different types of ores—massive pyrite and copper–pyrite bodies. Vlaykov Vruh shares features with typical porphyry Cu systems. Their common geological and structural setting, ore-forming processes, and paragenesis, as well as the observed alteration and geochemical lateral and vertical zonation, allow us to interpret the Elshitsa and Vlaykov Vruh deposits as the deep part of a high-sulfidation epithermal system and its spatially and genetically related porphyry Cu counterpart, respectively. The magmatic–hydrothermal system at Vlaykov Vruh–Elshitsa produced much smaller deposits than similar complexes in the northern part of the Panagyurishte district (Chelopech, Elatsite, Assarel). Magma chemistry and isotopic signature are some of the main differences between the northern and southern parts of the district. Major and trace element geochemistry of the Elshitsa magmatic complex are indicative for the medium- to high-K calc-alkaline character of the magmas. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratios of igneous rocks in the range of 0.70464 to 0.70612 and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_(i) ratios in the range of 0.51241 to 0.51255 indicate mixed crustal–mantle components of the magmas dominated by mantellic signatures. The epsilon Hf composition of magmatic zircons (+6.2 to +9.6) also suggests mixed mantellic–crustal sources of the magmas. However, Pb isotopic signatures of whole rocks (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.13–18.64, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.58–15.64, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.69–38.56) along with common inheritance component detected in magmatic zircons also imply assimilation processes of pre-Variscan and Variscan basement at various scales. U–Pb zircon and rutile dating allowed determination of the timing of porphyry ore formation at Vlaykov Vruh (85.6 ± 0.9 Ma), which immediately followed the crystallization of the subvolcanic dacitic bodies at Elshitsa (86.11 ± 0.23 Ma) and the Elshitsa granite (86.62 ± 0.02 Ma). Strontium isotope analyses of hydrothermal sulfates and carbonates (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.70581–0.70729) suggest large-scale interaction between mineralizing fluids and basement lithologies at Elshitsa–Vlaykov Vruh. Lead isotope compositions of hydrothermal sulfides (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.432–18.534, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.608–15.647, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.497–38.630) allow attribution of ore-formation in the porphyry and epithermal deposits in the Southern Panagyurishte district to a single metallogenic event with a common source of metals.     

卫星遥感藏北高原非均匀陆表地表特征参数和植被参数

卫星遥感在研究青藏高原北部地区(藏北高原地区)非均匀陆表地表特征参数和植被参数时有其独到的作用.作者提出了基于NOAA-14 AVHRR资料推算藏北高原地区地表特征参数和植被参数的方案,并把其用于全球能量水循环之亚洲季风青藏高原试验(GAME/Tibet)试验区.同时利用3个景的NOAA-14 AVHRR资料进行了分析研究,得到了一些有关藏北地区非均匀地表的区域地表特征参数(地表反射率、地表温度)和植被参数(INDV、植被覆盖度和叶面指数ILA).     

Are we going to live in a post-NATO world? A critical perspective on trends,obstacles and possibilities

The main research question investigated in this paper is the following: will a post-NATO world emerge during the next decades? The relevance of such a question is a consequence of the political and economic changes that have seen the light as a result of the power shift of international relations after the end of the Cold War. In spite of this, some contradictory tendencies, such as the weakening of the European pole within the NATO block, the US-NATO enlargement and its military aggressiveness, are generating a number of significant obstacles to the emergence of a post-NATO world. We will argue that the existence of these obstacles could be interpreted as some steps toward the historical downsizing of the US-EU-NATO hegemony. A “post-NATO” world does not necessarily imply the end of NATO, but rather the end of its hegemonic military presence on the global stage. Firstly, we will put the question into context mentioning the debates around NATO’s future and underlining the path undertaken by the Alliance in the frame of the redefinition of the aims of its “strategic concepts”. In this perspective, we will underline the direct link which exists between US strategic needs and NATO’s evolution in the post-Cold war era. Secondly, we will argue that the recent process of military expansionism led by NATO is remarkably de-legitimizing its actions on the global stage. Such a process, along with the current world system shift toward the end of unipolarity, is likely to provoke dramatic consequences in terms of international insecurity and the spreading of war. Thirdly, we will briefly compare the US and Chinese foreign actions, arguing that the space of international legitimacy is radically changing. This fact represents another brick supporting the idea of the emergence of a post-NATO world system in the future of international relations.     

Assessing space–time variations of denudation processes and related soil loss from 1955 to 2016 in southern Italy (Calabria region)

Studies on denudation processes and soil loss rates can provide insight into the landscape evolution, climate change, and human activities, as well as on land degradation risk. The aims of this study were to analyze the space–time distribution of denudation processes and evaluate the soil loss changes occurred during the period 1955–2016 by using an approach integrating geomorphological, geospatial and modeling analysis. The study area is a representative stream catchment of the Crati Valley (Calabria, southern Italy), which is affected by severe erosion processes. The combined use of aerial photographs interpretation, field survey, geostatistics, and GIS processing has allowed to characterize the types of denudation processes and land use change in space and time. Revised universal soil loss equation implemented in GIS environment was used to estimate the space–time pattern of soil loss and the soil erosion rates for each investigated year. The results showed that from 1955 to 2016, the study area was highly affected by denudation processes, mainly related to landslides and water erosion (slope wash erosion and gully erosion). Comparison of denudation processes maps showed that the total area affected by erosion processes has increased by about 31% and the distribution of geomorphic processes and their space–time evolution resulted from the complex interrelation between geoenvironmental features and human activities. The main land use changes concerned a decrease in areas covered by woodland, scrubland and pasture and an increase in croplands and barren lands that favored erosion processes. The most susceptible areas to soil loss in both years were mapped, and the mean soil loss rates for the study area were 6.33 Mg ha^?1 y^?1 in 1955 and 10.38 Mg ha^?1 y^?1 in 2016. Furthermore, the soil loss in 2016 has increased by about 64% compared to 1955. Finally, the results showed that integrating multi-temporal analysis of denudation processes, land use changes and soil loss rates might provide significant information on landscape evolution which supports decision makers in defining soil management and conservation practices.     

Spatio‐temporal patterns of channel changes in response to a major flood event: the case of the Magra River (central–northern Italy)

On October 25^th 2011, the Magra River (central–northern Italy) was affected by a significant flood event with an estimated return interval ranging from 30 to 200 years. This study investigates the morphological responses of the Magra River to this major flood event with the aims of (i) documenting the channel changes which occurred in response to the flood; (ii) analysing this response within the context of the historical trend of width changes; (iii) investigating the possible factors controlling the spatial pattern and the intensity of the observed changes. Significant channel widening was documented along the entire length studied (about 34 km), ranging from 3% to 90% of the pre‐flood channel width. Braided reaches were characterized by the most severe planimetric changes. Although characterized by high rates of change, these variations are, however, amply included in the historical range of channel width variability over approximately the last 150 years (from 1877 to present day), and are comparable with ( though generally lower than) the channel width of the 1950s. Statistical analyses (simple and multiple regressions) between the observed changes in channel width and a series of selected morphological and hydraulic controlling factors showed no robust correlations to explain the spatial pattern and the variability of channel adjustments. Instead, major adjustments occurred along reaches characterized by the confluence of those streams draining the sub‐catchments where the storm was concentrated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison between rocking analysis and kinematic analysis for the dynamic out‐of‐plane behavior of masonry walls

This paper provides a contribution to the rocking analysis of masonry walls by making a comparison with the kinematic analysis suggested by the Italian code. It is shown that the latter approach is generally over‐conservative and therefore potentially inappropriate for historic buildings, where rehabilitation can be expensive and can affect their cultural value. The equation of motion given by the Housner formulation, corresponding to the movement of a rigid block, is here modified to account for different boundary conditions at different heights of the wall. These boundary conditions or horizontal restraints can represent vaults, transverse walls, or retrofitting devices such as steel tie‐rods. A systemic analysis of walls having different dimensions and slenderness is performed, and the results from the Italian code and rocking analysis are compared. Finally, the improvement in the response offered by retrofitting devices is discussed in terms of reduction of amplitude ratio. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks: new challenges from structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry for post‐event analysis

Drainage channels are an integral part of agricultural landscapes, and their impact on catchment hydrology is strongly recognized. In cultivated and urbanized floodplains, channels have always played a key role in flood protection, land reclamation, and irrigation. Bank erosion is a critical issue in channels. Neglecting this process, especially during flood events, can result in underestimation of the risk in flood‐prone areas. The main aim of this work is to consider a low‐cost methodology for the analysis of bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks, and in particular for the estimation of the volumes of eroded and deposited material. A case study located in the Veneto floodplain was selected. The research is based on high‐resolution topographic data obtained by an emerging low‐cost photogrammetric method (structure‐from‐motion or SfM), and results are compared to terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data. For the SfM analysis, extensive photosets were obtained using two standalone reflex digital cameras and an iPhone5® built‐in camera. Three digital elevation models (DEMs) were extracted at the resolution of 0.1 m using SfM and were compared with the ones derived by TLS. Using the different DEMs, the eroded areas were then identified using a feature extraction technique based on the topographic parameter Roughness Index (RI). DEMs derived from SfM were effective for both detecting erosion areas and estimating quantitatively the deposition and erosion volumes. Our results underlined how smartphones with high‐resolution built‐in cameras can be competitive instruments for obtaining suitable data for topography analysis and Earth surface monitoring. This methodology could be potentially very useful for farmers and/or technicians for post‐event field surveys to support flood risk management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of hydrostratigraphy and structural setting on the arsenic occurrence in groundwater of the Cimino-Vico volcanic area (central Italy)

Arsenic occurrence in groundwater near the Cimino-Vico volcanoes (central Italy) was analysed considering the hydrostratigraphy and structural setting and the shallow and deep flows interacting within the Quaternary volcanics. Groundwater is the local source of drinking water. As documented in the past, arsenic in the groundwater has become a problem, and the European maximum allowable contaminant level was recently lowered to 10 μg/L. Chemical analyses of groundwater were conducted, sampled over an area of about 900 km², from 65 wells and springs representative of the volcanic aquifer and thermal waters. Considering the type of aquifer, the nature of the aquifer formation and its substratum, the hydrochemical data highlight that the arsenic content of the groundwater is mainly connected with the hydrothermal processes in the volcanic area. Thermal waters (54–60°C) fed from deep-rising fluids show higher arsenic concentrations (176–371 μg/L). Cold waters sampled from the volcanic aquifer are characterized by a wide variability in their arsenic concentration (1.6–195 μg/L), and about 62% exceed the limit of 10 μg/L. Where the shallow volcanic aquifer is open to deep-rising thermal fluids, relatively high arsenic concentrations (20–100 μg/L) are found. This occurs close to areas of the more recent volcano-tectonic structures.