Aircraft Observations of Air-mass Modification Over the Sea of Okhotsk during Sea-ice Growth

In order to quantitatively investigate the role of leads and sea-ice in air-mass modification, aircraft observations were conducted over the partially ice-covered Sea of Okhotsk. We investigated two cold-air outbreak events with different sea-ice concentrations. In both cases, the difference between the temperatures of surface air and the sea surface (ΔT) dropped rapidly with the accumulated fetch-width of leads up to about 35-40 km, and then decreased very slowly. The surface sensible heat flux originating from open water was about 300 W m⁻² within a few kilometres from the coast and decreased with increasing accumulated fetch-width. The sensible heat flux was about 100 W m⁻² on average. These results indicate that the downwind air-mass modification depends mainly on the total (accumulated) extent of open water. The total buoyancy flux calculated by the joint frequency distribution method correlated very well with ice concentration. Such a relationship was not clear in the case of the moisture flux . The ratio between rising thermals and cold downdrafts differed significantly between upwind and downwind regions; that is, the buoyancy flux was dominated by in the developing stage of the boundary layer, while also became important after the development of the boundary layer.     

Characterization of the amorphous state in metamict silicates and niobates by EXAFS and XANES analyses

X-ray absorption spectroscopy using synchrotron radiation has been applied to the investigation of the coordination geometries around Y, Zr and Nb atoms in metamict zircon, gadolinite, fergusonite, euxenite and samarskite. EXAFS and XANES spectra of their crystalline counterparts and synthetic compounds including ZrO₂, Y₂O₃, YNbTiO₆, YNbO₄, LiNbO₃, and NiNb₂O₆ were also measured for comparison. Metamict zircon shows a significant decrease in its Zr-O bond distances accompanying an increase in distortion of the Zr-O coordination polyhedra as compared with crystalline zircon. On the contrary, the average Nb-O bond distances and the symmetry of the coordination polyhedra around the Nb atoms in metamict euxenite and samarskite resemble those in the crystalline euxenite. Compared with crystalline fergusonite, a decrease in the distortion of the Nb-O octahedra is observed in metamict fergusonite. The structures of the second nearest neighbors (the metal-metal interactions) are largely disrupted in the metamict specimens except for metamict zircon and samarskite with high trivalent iron concentration. Nb in metamict samarskite is in octahedral coordination by oxygen and is similar to that in euxenite.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO₂ direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO₂ direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO₂ direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.     

差分主成分分析法在辽河三角洲景观变化中的应用

差分主成分分析法是应用遥感数据检测景观变化的一种新方法。为了提高检测精度,我们利用TM卫星遥感数据,改进了主成分分析法和图像差值法,提出了差分主成分分析法。并以辽河三角洲地区为例,对该方法进行了验证。研究结果表明：(1) 与传统的检测法-分类后比较法相比,差分主成分分析法具有较高的检测精度,总检测精度为0.89,Kappa指数为0.82;(2) 在1984~2000年的16年间,辽河三角洲地区有近22%的景观发生了变化,主要包括芦苇湿地的减少、水稻田的增加以及城镇用地的增加。     

Lethality of increasing CO2 levels on deep-sea copepods in the western North Pacific

The first CO₂ exposure experiments on several species of pelagic copepods inhabiting surface and deep layers in the western North Pacific were conducted. Living organisms were collected from two layers between the surface and 1,500 m between latitudes of 11 and 44°N, and they were exposed aboard ship to various pCO₂ up to about 98,000 μatm. Mortality of copepods from both shallow and deep layers in subarctic to subtropical regions increased with increasing pCO₂ and exposure time. Deep-living copepods showed higher tolerance to pCO₂ than shallow-living copepods. Furthermore, deep-living copepods from subarctic and transitional regions had higher tolerances than the subtropical copepods. The higher tolerances of the deep-living copepods from subarctic and transitional regions may be due to the adaptation to the natural pCO₂ conditions in the subarctic ocean.     

The role of the grain boundary at chemical and isotopic fronts in marble during contact metamorphism

Carbon and oxygen isotopic profiles around a low pressure metasomatic wollastonite reaction front in a marble of the Hida metamorphic terrain, central Japan, display typical metamorphic fluid-enhanced isotopic zonations. Isotopic profiles obtained from detailed microscale analyses perpendicular to the chemical reaction front in calcite marble show that diffusion-enhanced isotopic exchange may control these profiles. Carbon and oxygen isotopic behaviour in grain boundaries is remarkably different. Oxygen isotopic troughs (¹⁸O depleted rims) around the calcite-grain boundaries are widely observed in this contact aureole, demonstrating that diffusion of oxygen in calcite grain boundary dominates over lattice diffusion in calcite. In contrast, no difference is observed in carbon isotopic profiles obtained from grain cores and rims. There is thus no specific role of the grain boundary for diffusion of carbonic species in the metamorphic fluid during transportation. Carbon chemical species such as CO₂ and CO₃ ions in metamorphic fluid migrate mainly through lattice diffusion. The carbon and oxygen isotope profiles may be modelled by diffusion into a semi-infinite medium. Empirically lattice diffusion of oxygen isotopes is almost six times faster than that of carbon isotopes, and oxygen grain-boundary diffusion is ten times faster than oxygen lattice diffusion. Oxygen isotopic results around the wollastonite vein indicate that migration of the metamorphic fluid into calcite marble was small and was parallel to the aquifer. From the stability of wollastonite and the attainment of oxygen isotopic equilibrium, we suggest that diffusion of oxygen occurred through an aqueous fluid phase. The timescale of formation of the oxygen isotopic profile around the wollastonite vein is calculated to be about 0.76 × 10⁶ years using the experimentally determined diffusion constant. Received: 14 January 1997 / Accepted: 23 April 1998     

Simplified technique for the rapid determination of phytoplankton pigments by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography

A simplified technique for the rapid analysis of photosynthetic pigments in marine phytoplankton is described. The pigments extracted in N,N-dimethylformamide (DMF) are injected directly into the reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatograph fitted with a photodiode array detector. We developed a new stepwise program; that is methanol-water (7525 v/v), methanol, methanol-acetone (8020) and methanol-acetone (6535). This program gives a good separation of at least 13 carotenoids, and 10 chlorophylls and their derivatives, completed within 20 min. The quantitative precision is high; the maximum standard error was less than 6%. The stability of pigments in DMF were also considered for application of this technique to the lab work on board the ship.     

Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

Verifying optimality of rainfed agriculture using a stochastic model for drought occurrence

It may be paradoxical but subsistence rainfed agriculture is the predominant source of food in Sub-Saharan Africa where the production uncertainty is associated with the stochastic nature of rainfall. This paper attempts to comprehend the rationale of this situation by a mathematical approach. Considering the level of drought severity as the zero-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, optimality of rainfed agriculture is investigated in the context of stochastic control theory. Occurrence of drought terminating growth of crops is modelled with the concept of first exit time. A stochastic control problem allowing for virtual cost of irrigation, water stress to crops, and benefits of farming is formulated with irrigation effort as the control variable. The Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation governing the optimal control is studied to identify the set of cost functions optimizing rainfed agriculture in an inverse problem approach. Data and information were collected in the coastal savanna agro-ecological zone of Ghana, to identify model parameters, formulate the stochastic control problem, solve the inverse problem, and then verify optimality of rainfed agriculture. The results indicated that rainfed agriculture is not optimal when the crop is more tolerant to water stress.