Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

Isochemical breakdown of garnet in orogenic garnet peridotite and its implication to reaction kinetics

An isochemical kelyphite (orthopyroxene+spinel+plagioclase) that has nearly the same bulk chemical composition as the precursor garnet was found within a matrix of ordinary kelyphites (orthopyroxene+clinopyroxene+spinel±amphibole) in garnet peridotites from the Czech part of the Moldanubian Zone. It was shown that the kelyphitization of garnet took place in three stages: (1) the garnet-olivine reaction, accompanied by a long-range material transfer across the reaction zone, and (2) the isochemical breakdown of garnet, essentially in a chemically-closed system, and finally, (3) an open-system hydration reaction producing a thin hydrous zone (amphibole+spinel+plagioclase), which is located between the isochemical kelyphite and relict garnet. The presence of relict garnet suggests that this breakdown reaction of the second stage did not proceed to a completion probably being hindered by the formation of the hydrous zone at the reaction front. It was found by electron back-scattered diffraction method that orthopyroxene and spinel do not show any topotaxic relationship in the first type of kelyphite; whereas they show locally topotaxic relationship in the isochemical kelyphite. The transition from the first type to the second type of kelyphite is discussed on the basis of the detailed observations in the transition zone between the two kelyphites. More widespread occurrence of isochemical kelyphite is expected to occur in orogenic peridotites as well as from xenoliths brought by volcanics.     

Contribution of abiogenic and biogenic particles to trace-metal composition of phytoplankton assemblages in seawater of Shimizu Port, Japan

The contribution of abiogenic and biogenic particles to trace-metal (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Ti, V, and Zn) composition was investigated for phytoplankton (primarily diatoms) collected in Shimizu Port, a coastal seawater region. Except for Cd, the trace metals occurred predominantly in lithogenic or nonlithogenic abiogenic particles associated with plankton. In contrast, it is likely that Cd in seawater is taken up intracellularly, and not adsorbed extracellularly by phytoplankton. The lower P-normalized quotas of Cd in Shimizu Port than in offshore regions may be because plankton are dominated by diatoms.     

Decrease in anthropogenic nutrients and its effect on the C/N/P molar ratio of suspended particulate matter in hypertrophic Dokai Bay (Japan) in summer

Biologically important nutrient concentrations in Dokai Bay have declined as a result of reductions in anthropogenic inputs of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. A decrease in nutrient concentrations affects phytoplankton growth, thereby changing the biochemical characteristics of autochthonous particulate matter. We therefore investigated changes in the C/N/P molar ratio of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the summer, when phytoplankton growth is vigorous, before environmental quality standards (EQSs) were attained (1995–1998) and afterward (2006–2009). We found that the ratio of particulate organic nitrogen (PON) to particulate phosphorus (PP) changed in conjunction with changes in the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) that resulted from reductions in nutrient loading. Furthermore, we suggest that because the DIP concentration in seawater was high before EQSs were attained, inorganic phosphorus was possibly adsorbed onto SPM. After the attainment of EQSs, however, the DIP concentration fell, and PON/PP was high. Phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton growth in the mouth of the bay may explain the high PON/PP ratios after EQS attainment.     

Eutrophication-induced changes in Lake Nakaumi,southwest Japan

Lake Nakaumi, southwest Japan, is an enclosed lagoon characterized by polyhaline and halocline conditions. Since the last century, its ecological state has been altered by eutrophication. We used a paleolimnological approach and studied multiple proxies, including chemical compounds, diatoms, foraminifera and molluscs, to infer the eutrophication history of the ecosystem. Eutrophication in Lake Nakaumi was associated with several factors, including increased nutrient loading, input of herbicides, and dike building since the 1920s. The ecological condition of this lake was divided into several stages that reflect the eutrophication process after the 1940s. A catastrophic “regime shift” from a clear state with aquatic vegetation to a turbid one with phytoplankton occurred in the early 1950s. Environmental degradation in the Honjo area, a part of Lake Nakaumi, was attributed primarily to physical changes caused by the construction of an enclosing dike. Eutrophication occurred almost simultaneously with the physical changes to the Honjo area in the 1970s. Until recently, no regime shift was observed in this area, though the core-top sediments show possible symptoms of incipient change.     

Changes of seawater quality in Ofunto Bay,Iwate, after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Ofunato Bay was a semi-closed area because of the breakwater effect at the entrance; however, the breakwater was destroyed by a massive tsunami generated by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. Consequently, the physical environment of Ofunato Bay has been changed significantly, i.e., the modification of the stratified structure of seawater inside the bay and the intermittent intrusion of seawater outside the bay. These alterations of physical environment are considered to have an influence on the chemical and biological environment in Ofunato Bay. To elucidate the influence of the tsunami on the aquatic environment, we measured dissolved nutrients, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentrations, and heterotrophic bacteria abundance inside and outside of Ofunato Bay from 2012 to 2014, and compared these data with those obtained before the earthquake. As compared with before the earthquake, significant changes after the earthquake were (1) decrease of ammonium and phosphate concentrations, (2) increase of chlorophyll a concentration, (3) increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the bottom, and (4) decrease of heterotrophic bacteria abundance. The collapse of the breakwater and consequential enhanced water exchange were considered to have brought the decrease of nutrient concentration inside the bay. Furthermore, washout of shellfish mariculture rafts by the tsunami decreased the shellfish biodeposits along with the elution of nutrients by heterotrophic bacteria. Decrease of cultivated shellfish further caused a decline in feeding pressure on phytoplankton and, subsequently, increased the phytoplankton biomass that contributed to the decrease of nutrients inside the bay.     

The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May–31 Aug) of 8?years (2001–2002, 2004–2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW–SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.     

Random response analysis of a non-linear soil-suspension bridge pier

The structure analysed herein is a tower and pier system of a long-span suspension bridge. The tower shaft is modelled to allow classical normal modes decomposition in order to reduce higher modes. The pier is assumed to be rigid body free to translation as well as to rocking motion, being reacted by the surrounding soil compliance that is derived from a continuum mechanics approach. Linear and non-linear soil and structural dynamic interaction is dealt with by random vibration theory with use of the linearization technique and complex modal analysis. Primary interest is placed on the investigation of the dynamic characteristics of the total interaction system and the rms response with change of the soil condition and input excitation level. Also discussed is the approximate response analysis, using classical normal modes for the interaction system, for purposes of practical design.