THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOLAR FLARE GAMMA-RAY EMISSION AND NEUTRON PRODUCTION

We have examined six solar neutron events measured by satellite instruments and/or neutron monitors (NM) to understand the relationship between the intensity–time profiles of the -ray lines, the pion-related -rays, and the neutron production. In all six events the solar neutron production was clearly time-extended. We find that neutron emission as detected by NMs most closely follows the emission of pion-related -rays, whereas lower energy neutron production may follow that of nuclear -ray line emissions. Although this distinction is not unexpected, it is safe to say that the 2.223 MeV -ray line from neutron capture on hydrogen is a poor measure of the neutron production at energies >200 MeV. During the three events on 1982, June 3, 1990, May 24 and 1991, June 4 solar neutrons with energies greater than 200 MeV were recorded by NMs. The NM increases on 1982, June 3 and 1990, May 24 can be modeled using the time profile of the pion-related -rays. For the 1991, June 4 event the NM signal was small but lasted for 60 min and the high-energy -ray data available to us are insufficient to conclude unambiguously that the high-energy neutron production followed the pion-related -rays. In the other three events on 1991, June 9, 11, and 15 solar neutrons with energies 10–100 MeV were observed by the COMPTEL -ray instrument on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The duration of the low-energy neutron production on 1991, June 9 corresponded clearly to the high-energy and not to the low-energy -ray emission.     

New cloud activity on Uranus in 2004: First detection of a southern feature at 2.2 μm

On 4 July 2004 UT, we detected one of Uranus' southern hemispheric cloud features at K′ (2.12 μm); this is the first such detection in half a decade of adaptive optics imaging of Uranus at the Keck 10-m telescope. When we observed again on 8 July UT the feature's bright core had faded. By 9 July UT it was not seen at K′ and barely detectable at H. The detection and subsequent disappearance of the feature indicates rapid dynamical processes in the localized vertical aerosol structure.     

Laser Ablation (U-Th-Sm)/He Dating of Zircons: Analytical Age Bias and its Consequence for Studying Detrital Zircon Populations

The in situ (U-Th-Sm)/He and U/Pb laser-ablation double-dating procedure is a valuable method that can provide a large dataset relatively efficiently in contrast with conventional bulk helium thermochronometry. In this study, we evaluate the potential age error associated with the double ablation procedure and report the in situ (U-Th-Sm)/He double-ablation dating of 249 zircons from the Fish Canyon Tuff locality. With LA-ICP-MS pseudo-depth profiling and 3D numerical modelling, we show that the concentric double-ablation procedure in minerals with U-Th-Sm zoning can generate a significant (U-Th-Sm)/He age error (positive or negative), resulting in over-scattering and/or an offset of the mean age. Pseudo-depth profiling is insufficient to predict the individual age error, partly because of the superimposed ablations. To evaluate the consequence of this inherent bias, we confront a synthetic age distribution to the error expected for U-Th-Sm zoned zircons analysed with double-ablation (U-Th-Sm)/He thermochronometry. As expected, a strong age bias causes the spreading of peak ages, downgrading the original signal. Yet, the throughput of the ablation-based method can allow intra- and inter-sample peak age identification and comparison, and the coupling of (U-Th-Sm)/He and U/Pb ages extends our ability to deconvolute a multimodal age spectrum.     

Performance studies of the fixed stress split algorithm for immiscible two-phase flow coupled with linear poromechanics

In this work, we measure the performance of the fixed stress split algorithm for the immiscible water-oil flow coupled with linear poromechanics. The two-phase flow equations are solved on general hexahedral elements using the multipoint flux mixed finite element method whereas the poromechanics equations are discretized using the conforming Galerkin method. We introduce a rigorous calculation of the update in poroelastic properties during the iterative solution of the coupled system equations. The effects of the coupling parameter on the performance of the fixed stress algorithm is demonstrated in two field studies: the Frio oil reservoir and the Cranfield injection site.

     

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Does the framing of climate policies make a difference to public support? Evidence from UK marginal constituencies

Public support for climate policies is essential to underpin their credibility, but evidence suggests that an environmental basis for that support is not strong. It has been suggested that framing climate policies in other terms, such as energy security or job creation, will build a more sustainable political basis for bold climate policies. This approach is explored using data from a survey in 157 UK marginal constituencies. Framing does make a difference to support for the expansion of renewable energy, but not to support for policies on energy efficiency and financial assistance to developing countries. The data also show key differences in levels of support for policies between different socio-demographic and voter groups.     

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.