Performance of CMORPH,TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain,mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan

The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.     

Combining European Earth Observation products with Dynamic Global Vegetation Models for estimating Essential Biodiversity Variables

ABSTRACT

Global, fast and accessible monitoring of biodiversity is one of the main pillars of the efforts undertaken in order to revert it loss. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON) provided an expert-based definition of the biological properties that should be monitored, the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). Initiatives to provide indicators for EBVs rely on global, freely available remote sensing (RS) products in combination with empirical models and field data, and are invaluable for decision making. In this study, we provide alternatives for the expansion and improvement of the EBV indicators, by suggesting current and future data from the European Space Agencýs COPERNICUS and explore the potential of RS-integrated Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the estimation of EBVs. Our review found that mainly due to the inclusion of the Sentinel constellation, Copernicus products have similar or superior potential for EBV indicator estimation in relation to their NASA counterparts. DGVMs simulate the ecosystem level EBVs (ecosystem function and structure), and when integrated with remote sensing data have great potential to not only offer improved estimation of current states but to provide projection of ecosystem impacts. We suggest that focus on producing EBV relevant outputs should be a priority within the research community, to support biodiversity preservation efforts.     

On the structural evolution of the Central Trough in the Norwegian and Danish sectors of the North Sea

The Central Trough of the North Sea is not a simple rift graben. It is an elongated area of regional subsidence which was initiated in mid Cretaceous times and continued to subside through to the late Tertiary. Its form is not representative of pre-mid Cretaceous tectonics.In Late Permian times the North Sea was divided into a northern and southern Zechstein basin by the E-W trending Mid North Sea-Ringkøbing-Fyn High. The latter was dissected by a narrow graben trending NNW through the Tail End Graben and the Søgne Basin. The Feda Graben was a minor basin on the northern flank of the Mid North Sea High at this time. This structural configuration persisted until end Middle Jurassic times when a new WNW trend separated the Tail End Graben from the Søgne Basin. Right lateral wrench movement on this new trend caused excessive subsudence in the Tail End and Feda Grabens while the Søgne Basin became inactive.Upper Jurassic subsidence trends continued during the Early Cretaceous causing the deposition of large thicknesses of sediments in local areas along the trend. From mid Cretaceous times the regional subsidence of the Central Trough was dominant but significant structural inversions occurred in those areas of maximum Early Cretaceous and Late Jurassic subsidence.     

A heuristic model for potential geomorphic influences on trophic interactions in streams

Whereas certain linkages between stream channel morphology and stream ecology are fairly well-understood, how geomorphology influences trophic interactions remains largely unknown. As a first step, a simple, heuristic model is developed that couples reach-scale geomorphic morphology with trophic dynamics between vegetation, detritus, herbivores, and predators. Predation is assumed to increase with depth beyond a threshold depth, and herbivory is assumed to decrease with velocity beyond a threshold velocity. Results show that the modeled food chain is sensitive to channel geometry, particularly around the threshold conditions for predators and herbivores. Importantly, geomorphic influences are not isolated to a particular trophic level, but rather are transferred through the food chain via top-down and bottom-up effects. The modeled system is particularly sensitive to changes in the end-members of the food chain: vegetation and predators. Results illustrate that geomorphic disturbances, known to affect a single trophic level (e.g., fish), likely impact multiple trophic levels in the stream ecosystem via trophic interactions. Such impacts at the multiple trophic level are poorly understood. While limited by the lack of empirical long-term data for testing and calibration, this simple model provides a structure for generating hypotheses, collecting targeted data, and assessing the potential impacts of stream disturbance or restoration on entire stream ecosystems. Further, the model illustrates the potential for future coupled stream models to explore spatial and temporal linkages.     

Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

A review of definitions of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Most workers regard the Main Central Thrust (MCT) as one of the key high strain zones in the Himalaya because it accommodated at least 90 km of...     

The role of closed ecological systems in carbon cycle modelling

Acquiring a mechanistic understanding of the role of biotic feedbacks for the links between atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and temperature is essential for trustworthy climate predictions. Currently, computer-based simulations are the only available tool to estimate the global impact of biotic feedbacks on future atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures. Here we propose an alternative and complementary approach by using materially closed, energetically open analogue/physical models of the carbon cycle. We argue that there is unexplored potential in using a materially closed approach to improve our understanding of the magnitude and direction of many biotic carbon feedbacks and that recent technological advances make this feasible. We also suggest how such systems could be designed and discuss the advantages and limitations of establishing physical models of the global carbon cycle.     

Use of a soil moisture network for drought monitoring in the Czech Republic

Since 2000, the network of stations that make up the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has measured the soil moisture content at the 0- to 0.9-m layer using sensors placed within the natural soil profile under closely cropped grass cover. Using information from 8?years of continuous observation at seven stations throughout the Czech Republic, we verified the usefulness of the Soil Moisture Index (SMI). The SMI is a potentially useful index for calculating the water deficit in the Czech Republic and Central Europe. During this period, a statistically significant decrease in moisture content was detected, and negative SMI values predominated. There were frequent occurrences of flash drought, defined as a very rapid decline in soil moisture during a 3-week period. The CHMI can use SMI values below ?3 in the Integrated Warning Service System. The routine calculation of SMI values can alert agricultural producers to the development of flash drought conditions and provide them with information regarding the effectiveness of recent rainfall events. An increase in soil moisture, in contrast, could serve as a warning sign for hydrology because it creates the preconditions for flooding. The complex study of soil humidity regimes is becoming more significant in connection with current global climatic change warnings in hydrological cycles.     

The role of antecedent groundwater heads in controlling transient aquifer storage and flood peak attenuation in karst watersheds

Transient storage of floodwaters in aquifers is known to attenuate peak flows in rivers and drive subsurface dissolution. Transient aquifer storage could be enhanced in watersheds overlying karst aquifers where caves facilitate surface and groundwater exchange. Few studies, however, have examined controls on, or magnitudes of, transient aquifer storage or flood peak attenuation in karstic watersheds. Here we evaluate flood peak attenuation with multiple linear regression analyses of 10 years of river and groundwater data from the Suwannee River, which flows over the karstic upper Floridan aquifer in north-central Florida and experiences frequent flooding. Regressions show antecedent river stage exerts the dominant control on magnitudes of transient aquifer storage, with recharge and time to peak having secondary controls. Specifically, low antecedent stages result in larger magnitudes of transient aquifer storage and thus greater flood attenuation than conditions of elevated antecedent stage. These findings suggest subsurface weathering, including cave formation and enlargement, caused by transient aquifer storage could occur on a more frequent basis in aquifers where groundwater table elevation is lowered due to anthropogenic or climatic influences. Our work also shows that measures of groundwater table elevation prior to an event could be used to improve predictive flood models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nitrous oxide production and denitrification rates in estuarine intertidal saltmarsh and managed realignment zones

Increasing concerns over habitat loss and rising costs of sea defence maintenance due to rising sea levels, has seen increases in the practice of managed realignment and reflooding of former reclaimed areas of intertidal saltmarsh and mudflat around the world. These practices are taking place with little knowledge of their impact on soil biogeochemical processes. Rates of denitrification (using the acetylene inhibition technique) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) production were measured from a long-established saltmarsh (SM) and an adjacent, recently re-flooded managed realignment (MR) site comprising former arable land in the estuary of the River Torridge, Devon, UK. Incubations were carried out in closed chambers in which patterns of tidal flooding were simulated automatically. Measurements were made during periods of flood and non-flood over a total of four tidal inundations with estuarine water. During the latter two flooding episodes floodwater was amended with nitrate (NO₃⁻). Nitrous oxide production in the SM soil generally was lower than in the MR soil, with mean values and standard errors over the whole incubation of 0.27 ± 0.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ and 0.65 ± 0.15 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ respectively. Denitrification rates demonstrated a similar trend although generally were an order of magnitude higher than N₂O production, with mean rates and standard errors of 2.88 ± 1.12 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the SM soil and 3.39 ± 1.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the MR soil. The data suggest that both soils are net sinks for NO₃⁻ and net sources for N₂O. Both patterns of tidal inundation and floodwater chemistry affect the process rates in each soil differently. The impact of flooding with NO₃⁻ – amended water was greater on the SM soil than the MR soil, and it is likely that decomposing vegetation buried in the accreting sediments following reflooding at the MR site were supplying a source of N in the soil, and so process rates were less dependent upon external supplies. The act of managed realignment in intertidal zones could therefore result in an increase in mean production of N₂O in intertidal zones, at least in the short term.