In this study, heat waves at three meteorological stations in Serbia were analyzed based on the daily maximum temperature during the summer (June, July and August). The warmest summers as regards heat wave duration and severity occurred within the periods 1951–1952, 1987–1998 (especially 1994) and 2000–2007. The longest heat waves were recorded in 1952, lasting 16 days in Smederevska Palanka and 21 days in Ni?, while in 1994 in Belgrade lasting 18 days. The summer of 1994 in Belgrade and Smederevska Palanka, and 2003 in Ni? were characterized with the highest number of consecutive tropical days (21 and 29, respectively).The autoregressive-moving-average models were applied to generate long series of the daily maximum temperature, from which the relative frequencies of heat waves were estimated. The relationships between the longest heat waves, and the circulation conditions were analyzed using the subjective Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of weather types. 相似文献
In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes. 相似文献
Increased eutrophication was recently observed in the 5th (5J) and 6th (6J) Triglav Lakes, two remote Slovenian mountain lakes. Sediment phosphorus (P) pools were analysed and potential external P sources affecting the lakes (atmospheric deposition, terrestrial export and nearby hut) evaluated, to assess the effects of internal and external changes on the lakes. A sequential extraction procedure was used to quantify five P fractions from the sediments: adsorbed (NH4Cl–P), redox-sensitive (BD–P), aluminium- (NaOH–P) and calcium- (HCl–P) bound, and refractory organic (Res–P) P. Total phosphorus (TP) contents in surface sediment of 5J and 6J were 1430 and 641 µg P g?1 dry weight sediment (dw), respectively. TP varied with depth in 5J sediments, but displayed no discernible pattern, whereas it decreased steadily downcore in 6J. Contents of all P forms were distinctly higher in 5J than 6J, but their rank order and relative abundances were similar in the two lakes. Res–P was the most abundant P fraction, followed by HCl–P. Together, the two P forms accounted for nearly 80 and 90% of TP in 5J and 6J sediments, respectively. BD–P and NaOH–P were less abundant, with each fraction accounting for 3 to 9% of TP, whereas NH4Cl–P was least abundant. Atmospheric deposition and terrestrial export were substantial sources of P for the lakes. Delivery of the former was estimated to be at least 7.5 mg P m?2 yr?1 and the latter around 20 mg P m?2 yr?1. We concluded that P was not retained in the catchment effectively, likely because of only slightly acidic soil pH (5.9), relatively low aluminium content and high organic matter content (53%) in soils, resulting in higher vulnerability of the studied lakes to eutrophication. The mountain hut could also be a significant source of P for the lakes. Each year, it could potentially contribute ~12 kg of soluble P to the environment, but the true impact of the hut on lake trophic status remains unclear. 相似文献
Large sudden wind-direction shifts and submeso variability under nocturnal conditions are examined using a micrometeorological network of stations in north-western Victoria, Australia. The network was located in an area with mostly homogeneous and flat terrain. We have investigated the main characteristics of the horizontal propagation of events causing the wind-direction shift and not addressed in previous studies. The submeso motions at the study site exhibit behaviour typical of flat terrain, such as the lower relative mesovelocity scale and smaller cross-wind variances than that for complex terrain. The distribution of wind-direction shifts shows that there is a small but persistent preference for counter-clockwise rotation, occurring for 55% of the time. Large wind-direction shifts tend to be associated with a sharp decrease in air temperature (74% of the time), which is associated with rising motion of cold air, followed by an increase in turbulent mixing. The horizontal propagation of events was analyzed using the cross-correlation function method. There is no preferred mean wind direction associated with the events nor is there any relationship between the mean wind and propagation directions. The latter indicates that the events are most likely not local flow perturbations advected by the mean flow but are rather features of generally unknown origin. This needs to be taken into account when developing parametrizations of the stable boundary layer in numerical models. 相似文献
This article provides insights into the role of institutions involved in climate governance working towards a future low-carbon society at the national level, within the global climate change governance architecture. Specifically, it contributes to understanding the fragmented governance of energy efficiency policy in developing countries by focussing on Vietnam’s building sector, identifying key institutions related to underlying discourses, national and international power relations, resource distribution and coalitions. It uses the case of baseline setting in developing Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to illustrate institutional dynamics, nationally and transnationally, as well as to question whether demands for baseline setting achieve the ideal trade-off between actual GHG emissions reduction and institutionalized demands for accountability. The analysis reveals that, in addition to domestic efforts and challenges, the international agenda greatly influences the energy efficiency policy arena. The article presents lessons to be learnt about policy processes from the specific Vietnamese case, reflecting on the role of international actors and discourses in it. Finally, it argues for the abolition of baselines in favour of adequate monitoring and evaluation, from the perspective that requirement for deviation from fictitious baselines is unproductive and only serves an international techno-managerial discourse.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Baseline establishment is commonly considered an initial step in developing NAMAs, in order to facilitate the demonstration of a deviation from such baselines. The requirement to produce baselines is traditionally not questioned by policy practitioners. Thus, significant development resources are allocated to the establishment of baselines and the bridging of data gaps, often without consideration as to whether baselines are a necessary instrument for NAMA implementation. We suggest omitting the lengthy and resource-consuming practice of establishing baselines and recommend proceeding forthwith to the planning and implementation of mitigation and energy efficiency policies. As conditions vary significantly in different contexts, it would be more appropriate to measure the initial situation, establishing the ‘base point’, and monitor development from that point. The present article might serve as motivation for policymakers to question traditional approaches to policy development and consider alternatives to maximize the cost efficacy of NAMA programmes and facilitate their implementation. 相似文献
The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.
Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) from surface sediments, suspended particulate matter and settling particles in the southern Barcelona continental margin were studied in order to evaluate the environmental impact of the anthropogenic metals discharged by the Llobregat River in this Mediterranean area. The temporal variation of heavy metals discharged by this river onto the continental shelf is clearly related to the river water flow. Part of the fine sediment and associated heavy metals transported by the Llobregat River during periods of low river flow accumulate on the river bed, and they are totally removed and discharged onto the Barcelona continental shelf during sporadic river water flow increases. Metals produce significant anomalies of chromium (×2.5), copper (×3.4) and zinc (×3.7) in the surface sediments of the Llobregat prodelta and tend to be transported along the continental shelf following the mean flow. Metals associated with the finest suspended flocs transferred to the slope are controlled by the shelf-slope density front and are transported along slope by the general geostrophic current, instead of accumulating and becoming concentrated in the slope bottom sediments. Settling particulate matter collected in sediment traps on the Barcelona continental slope offshore of the shelf-slope front shows low heavy metal concentrations except in a few sediment trap samples that are significantly metal-enriched in chromium (×4.5) and zinc (×6.8). This enrichment is associated with very short and sporadic river flow increases and is only recorded inside the Foix submarine canyon, which acts as a preferential conduit for the shelf-slope sediment transfer. 相似文献