Uncertainty analysis and probabilistic segmentation of electrical resistivity images: the 2D inverse problem

In this paper, we present the uncertainty analysis of the 2D electrical tomography inverse problem using model reduction and performing the sampling via an explorative member of the Particle Swarm Optimization family, called the Regressive‐Regressive Particle Swarm Optimization. The procedure begins with a local inversion to find a good resistivity model located in the nonlinear equivalence region of the set of plausible solutions. The dimension of this geophysical model is then reduced using spectral decomposition, and the uncertainty space is explored via Particle Swarm Optimization. Using this approach, we show that it is possible to sample the uncertainty space of the electrical tomography inverse problem. We illustrate this methodology with the application to a synthetic and a real dataset coming from a karstic geological set‐up. By computing the uncertainty of the inverse solution, it is possible to perform the segmentation of the resistivity images issued from inversion. This segmentation is based on the set of equivalent models that have been sampled, and makes it possible to answer geophysical questions in a probabilistic way, performing risk analysis.     

“Pandora box” — Matrix in the calculus of observations

Summary If the condition R(A)=k(n), whereA is the design matrix of the type n × k and k the number of parameters to be determined, is not satisfied, or if the covariance matrixH is singular, it is possible to determine the adjusted value of the unbiased estimable function of the parameters f(), its dispersion D( (x)) and ² as the unbiased estimate of the value of ² by means of an arbitrary g-inversion of the matrix . The matrix , because of its remarkable properties, is called the Pandora Box matrix. The paper gives the proofs of these properties and the manner in which they can be employed in the calculus of observations.     

Applying Fractal Dimensions and Energy-Budget Analysis to Characterize Fracturing Processes During Magma Migration and Eruption: 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) Submarine Eruption

The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Behavioural-geographical aspects of environmental quality

The behavioural approach in human geography accentuates the view of quality of the environment through man and his value orientations. The quality of environment from the point of view of human experience raises behavioural-geographical questions that are the core of the presented topic. Aspects of environmental imaginations and sensations as well as human value system are presented as variables affecting the structure of the perceived environment and human spatial behaviour. In this context, the authors present results of two behavioural studies that correspond to new models of man and environment from the viewpoint of a behavioural approach. The suggested humanistic approach in behavioural geography emphasizes above all the emotional aspect of the relationship between man and environment, which through environmental values, spatial sensations, and meanings, leads to human spatial behaviour.     

Improved indirect phase reflection height measurement at panská ves — method,equipment, evaluation

Summary Indirect phase reflection height measurements have been performed at the Panská Ves Observatory, Czechoslovakia, for 30 years to monitor solar flare effects (SFA). Only after introducing the new receiver in May 1985, could the indirect phase height analysis (IPHA) method be applied to measurements along the Allouis — Panská Ves 162 kHJ measuring path. The IPHA method allows the electron density and pressure variability in the lower ionosphere to be studied, particularly near the 80 km altitude. This paper describes the theoretical background of the IPHA method, the measuring equipment used at Panská Ves, the method of evaluating records and checking of data, and the program package developed by us both for graphic and numerical processing, as well as our efforts to develop a homogeneous East European IPHA network. The IPHA method has been introduced succesfully at the Panská Ves Observatory.     

Local site effect microzonation of Lorca town (SE Spain)

Local site effect assessment based on subsurface ground conditions is often the key to evaluate urban seismic hazard. The site effect evaluation in Lorca town (south-eastern Spain) started with a classification of urban geology through the geological mapping at scale 1:10,000 and the use of geotechnical data and geophysical surveys. The 17 geological formations identified were classified into 5 geological/seismic formations according to their seismic amplification capacity obtained from ambient vibration measurements as well as from simultaneous strong motion records. The shear-wave velocity structure of each geological/seismic formation was evaluated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. Nakamura’s method was applied to determine a predominant period distribution map. The spectral amplification factors were fourfold the values recorded in a reference hard-rock site. Finally, the capability of this study for explaining the damage distribution caused by the May 11th, 2011 Lorca destructive earthquake (Mw \(=\) 5.2) was examined. The methods used in this work are of assistance to evaluate ground amplification phenomena in urban areas of complex geology as Lorca town due to future earthquakes with applicability on urban seismic risk management.     

Metals in tidal flats colonized by microbial mats within a South-American estuary (Argentina)

In this study, we measured the concentrations of metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Cr, Zn, Hg, Mn, and Fe) and assessed the characteristics of tidal flats (grain size and organic matter content) in sediments and their overlying microbial mats fractions to evaluate the anthropogenic impact within the Bahía Blanca Estuary (BBE). Puerto Rosales (PR) and Almirante Brown (AB), located in the middle and inner zone of the estuary, respectively, were used as sampling sites. Sediments were composed mainly of silt–clay in AB, whereas first fine-grained particles were coarser in depth in PR. Regarding the concentration of metals in both fractions, we found differences between sites: There were higher concentrations of overall metals in AB relative to PR. In addition, higher concentrations of Cu were recorded in the first centimeters of AB tidal flats, whereas higher concentration of Cd were recorded in microbial mats of PR. Considering that the grain size was similar between sites, these results are consistent with the high concentration of organic matter found in AB, probably because this site is close to a former municipal dump and sewage discharges. Also, the higher Cd content found in PR site would highlight both the influence of untreated urban discharges and port anthropogenic activities. In conclusion, this study allowed identifying high values of some metals in the presence of microbial mats in the BBE, thus suggesting a possible interaction between both, at least for metals like Cu or Cd.