A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm for rapid quantification of geologic uncertainty

Geologic uncertainties and limited well data often render recovery forecasting a difficult undertaking in typical appraisal and early development settings. Recent advances in geologic modeling algorithms permit automation of the model generation process via macros and geostatistical tools. This allows rapid construction of multiple alternative geologic realizations. Despite the advances in geologic modeling, computation of the reservoir dynamic response via full-physics reservoir simulation remains a computationally expensive task. Therefore, only a few of the many probable realizations are simulated in practice. Experimental design techniques typically focus on a few discrete geologic realizations as they are inherently more suitable for continuous engineering parameters and can only crudely approximate the impact of geology. A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm (FPRA) has been developed for quantifying the forecast uncertainty as an alternative. The proposed algorithm relies on the rapid characterization of the geologic uncertainty space represented by an ensemble of sufficiently diverse static model realizations. FPRA characterizes the geologic uncertainty space by calculating connectivity distances, which quantify how different each individual realization is from all others in terms of recovery response. Fast streamline simulations are employed in evaluating these distances. By applying pattern recognition techniques to connectivity distances, a few representative realizations are identified within the model ensemble for full-physics simulation. In turn, the recovery factor probability distribution is derived from these intelligently selected simulation runs. Here, FPRA is tested on an example case where the objective is to accurately compute the recovery factor statistics as a function of geologic uncertainty in a channelized turbidite reservoir. Recovery factor cumulative distribution functions computed by FPRA compare well to the one computed via exhaustive full-physics simulations.     

Industry participation in stock assessment: the New Zealand SNA1 snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

We describe industry funded contributions to the assessment of the SNA1 snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery during the 1990s and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of industry funded research. We also provide background on the history of fisheries management in New Zealand, on the current assessment and management processes, and on the SNA1 snapper fishery. In the SNA1 fishery, the contributions of industry and the cooperation with Government scientists has resulted in high quality assessments. In our opinion, the advantages of industry funded research out weigh the disadvantages and suggest that industry funded assessments are highly desirable and should be an integral part of any management system.     

Tidally incised valleys on tropical carbonate shelves: An example from the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The formation of incised valleys on continental shelves is generally attributed to fluvial erosion under low sea level conditions. However, there are exceptions. A multibeam sonar survey at the northern end of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, adjacent to the southern edge of the Gulf of Papua, mapped a shelf valley system up to 220 m deep that extends for more than 90 km across the continental shelf. This is the deepest shelf valley yet found in the Great Barrier Reef and is well below the maximum depth of fluvial incision that could have occurred under a − 120 m, eustatic sea level low-stand, as what occurred on this margin during the last ice age. These valleys appear to have formed by a combination of reef growth and tidal current scour, probably in relation to a sea level at around 30–50 m below its present position.

Tidally incised depressions in the valley floor exhibit closed bathymetric contours at both ends. Valley floor sediments are mainly calcareous muddy, gravelly sand on the middle shelf, giving way to well-sorted, gravely sand containing a large relict fraction on the outer shelf. The valley extends between broad platform reefs and framework coral growth, which accumulated through the late Quaternary, coincides with tidal current scour to produce steep-sided (locally vertical) valley walls. The deepest segments of the valley were probably the sites of lakes during the last ice age, when Torres Strait formed an emergent land-bridge between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Numerical modeling predicts that the strongest tidal currents occur over the deepest, outer-shelf segment of the valley when sea level is about 40–50 m below its present position. These results are consistent with a Pleistocene age and relict origin of the valley.

Based on these observations, we propose a new conceptual model for the formation of tidally incised shelf valleys. Tidal erosion on meso- to macro-tidal, rimmed carbonate shelves is enhanced during sea level rise and fall when a tidal, hydraulic pressure gradient is established between the shelf-lagoon and the adjacent ocean basin. Tidal flows attain a maximum, and channel incision is greatest, when a large hydraulic pressure gradient coincides with small channel cross sections. Our tidal-incision model may explain the observation of other workers, that sediment is exported from the Great Barrier Reef shelf to the adjacent ocean basins during intermediate (rather than last glacial maximum) low-stand, sea level positions. The model may apply to other rimmed shelves, both modern and ancient.     

Seismic images of a collision zone offshore NW Sabah/Borneo

Multichannel reflection seismic data from the southern South China Sea, refraction and gravity modelling were used to investigate the compressional sedimentary structures of the collision-prone continental margin off NW Borneo. An elongated imbricate deepwater fan, the toe Thrust Zone bounds the Northwest Borneo Trough to the southeast. The faults separating the individual imbricates cut through post-Early Miocene sediments and curve down to a carbonate platform at the top of the subsiding continental Dangerous Grounds platform that forms the major detachment surface. The age of deformation migrates outward toward the front of the wedge. We propose crustal shortening mechanisms as the main reason for the formation of the imbricate fan. At the location of the in the past defined Lower Tertiary Thrust Sheet tectonostratigraphic province a high velocity body was found but with a much smaller extend than the previously defined structure. The high velocity structure may be interpreted either as carbonates that limit the transfer of seismic energy into the sedimentary layers beneath or as Paleogene Crocker sediments dissected by remnants of a proto-South China Sea oceanic crust that were overthrust onto a southward migrating attenuated continental block of the Dangerous Grounds during plate convergence.     

Microzooplankton herbivory in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Microplankton abundances and phytoplankton mortality rates were determined at six stations during four cruises spanning three seasons in the Ross Sea polynya, Antarctica (early spring, Oct.–Nov. 1996; mid-late summer, Jan.–Feb. 1997; fall, Apr. 1997; mid-late spring, Nov.–Dec. 1997). Rates of microzooplankton herbivory were measured using a modified dilution technique, as well as by examining the rate of disappearance of phytoplankton (chlorophyll) in samples incubated in the dark (i.e. grazing in the absence of phytoplankton growth). Strong seasonal cycles of phytoplankton and microzooplankton abundance were observed during the study. Microzooplankton abundance varied by more than three orders of magnitude during the four cruises, and was positively correlated with phytoplankton biomass over the entire data set. Nevertheless, microzooplankton grazing was insufficient to impact significantly phytoplankton standing stocks during most of the experiments performed in this perenially cold environment. Only thirteen out of a total of 51 experiments yielded phytoplankton mortality rates that were significantly different from zero. The highest mortality rate observed in this study (0.26 d⁻¹) was modest compared with maximal rates that have been observed in temperate and tropical ecosystems. Results from twenty experiments examining the rate of decrease of phytoplankton biomass during incubations in the dark agreed quite well with the results of the dilution experiments performed at the same time. The range of mortality rates for the dark incubations was −0.09–0.06 d⁻¹, and the average was essentially zero (−0.01 d⁻¹). That is, chlorophyll concentration was virtually unchanged in samples incubated in the dark for 3 d. A number of factors appeared to contribute to the very low rates of microbial herbivory observed, including low water temperature, and the size and taxonomic composition of the phytoplankton assemblage. Based on our results we conclude that the seasonal, massive phytoplankton blooms observed in the Ross Sea are due, in part, to low rates of removal by microbial herbivores.     

Lesser-known consequences of managing marine fisheries using individual transferable quotas

Managing marine fisheries using output controls in the form of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) can be an attractive alternative to more traditional input controls. There are now a number of examples of where ITQ-managed fisheries have been able to reduce the impact of the major management problems in global fisheries, namely, gross over-capitalisation and effort. However, ITQs are not the perfect management tool and one of the lesser known consequences of ITQ-managed fisheries where ITQs consist of a harvest right is the implicit relationship between ITQ property rights and rights of access to the fishing grounds. This implicit spatial right to the grounds can provide obstacles in the way of allocating water-space within fishing grounds for alternative uses such as marine-protected areas, large-scale aquaculture, and wind farms. These lesser-known consequences of ITQ-managed fisheries are discussed here.     

Detailed measurements during a transient front in a small subtropical estuary

High-resolution measurements of velocity and physio-chemistry were conducted before, during and after the passage of a transient front in a small subtropical system about 2.1 km upstream of the river mouth. Detailed acoustic Doppler velocimetry measurements, conducted continuously at 25 Hz, showed the existence of transverse turbulent shear between 300 s prior to the front passage and 1300 s after. This was associated with an increased level of suspended sediment concentration fluctuations, some transverse shear next to the bed and some surface temperature anomaly.     

Detection of Temperature-Dependent Spectral Variation on the Asteroid Eros and New Evidence for the Presence of an Olivine-Rich Silicate Assemblage

Data obtained by the near-infrared spectrometer carried by the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft show that the spectral properties of the asteroid Eros vary with temperature. The manner in which they vary demonstrates that the mineral olivine is a major constituent of the surface. The near-IR temperature-dependent spectral properties of Eros in the northern hemisphere, and for two individual regions on the surface, show clear evidence of the presence of the mineral olivine and are a close match to the temperature-spectral behavior of LL-type ordinary chondrite meteorites. While the presence of other olivine-rich meteorites cannot be excluded, H-type ordinary chondrites are clearly too pyroxene-rich to be permitted as a major surface component of Eros. The results of the thermal-spectral analysis are consistent with results from analysis of conventional reflectance spectra of the asteroid and contribute unambiguous detection of olivine to the understanding of the surface composition of Eros.