PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 2: California governor’s executive order S-3-05 applied to the transportation sector

California Governor’s Executive Order (CGEO) S-3-05 requires that California greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions be reduced to 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050. Meeting this target will require drastic changes in transportation technology, fuel, and behavior which will reduce criteria pollutant emissions as well as GHG emissions. The improvement to local air quality caused by the reduced criteria pollutant emissions must be calculated to fully evaluate the overall benefits and costs of CGEO S-3-05. In the present study, seven different transportation scenarios that move towards the goals of CGEO S-3-05 in the transportation sector were examined to determine how they would affect future airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in California: (1) hydrogen fuel cells, (2) electric vehicles, (3) high efficiency vehicles, (4) public mass transit, (5) biofuels, (6) biofuels + hybrid electric vehicles, and (7) hydrogen fuel cells + electric vehicles. The air quality implications of each scenario were evaluated using a chemical transport model applied during a wintertime stagnation episode representing future climate in California. Scenarios (6) and (7) reduced population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations by ~9 % and PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) concentrations by ~30 % relative to base-case predictions.     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

Simplification and Validation of a Spectral-Tensor Model for Turbulence Including Atmospheric Stability

A spectral-tensor model of non-neutral, atmospheric-boundary-layer turbulence is evaluated using Eulerian statistics from single-point measurements of the wind speed and temperature at heights up to 100 m, assuming constant vertical gradients of mean wind speed and temperature. The model has been previously described in terms of the dissipation rate \(\epsilon \), the length scale of energy-containing eddies \(\mathcal {L}\), a turbulence anisotropy parameter \(\varGamma \), the Richardson number Ri, and the normalized rate of destruction of temperature variance \(\eta _\theta \equiv \epsilon _\theta /\epsilon \). Here, the latter two parameters are collapsed into a single atmospheric stability parameter z / L using Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, where z is the height above the Earth’s surface, and L is the Obukhov length corresponding to \(\{Ri,\eta _\theta \}\). Model outputs of the one-dimensional velocity spectra, as well as cospectra of the streamwise and/or vertical velocity components, and/or temperature, and cross-spectra for the spatial separation of all three velocity components and temperature, are compared with measurements. As a function of the four model parameters, spectra and cospectra are reproduced quite well, but horizontal temperature fluxes are slightly underestimated in stable conditions. In moderately unstable stratification, our model reproduces spectra only up to a scale \(\sim \) 1 km. The model also overestimates coherences for vertical separations, but is less severe in unstable than in stable cases.     

Carbonate cements in Miller field of the UK North Sea: a natural analog for mineral trapping in CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage

Miller field of the North Sea has had high concentrations of natural CO₂ for ~70 Ma. It is an ideal analog for the long-term fate of CO₂ during engineered storage, particularly for formation of carbonate minerals that permanently lock up CO₂ in solid form. The Brae Formation reservoir sandstone contains an unusually high quantity of calcite concretions; however, C and O stable isotopic signatures suggest that these are not related to the present-day CO₂ charge. Margins of the concretions are corroded, probably because of reduced pH due to CO₂ influx. Dispersed calcite cements are also present, some of which postdate the CO₂ charge and, therefore, are the products of mineral trapping. It is calculated that only a minority of the reservoired CO₂ in Miller (6–24%) has been sequestrated in carbonates, even after 70 Ma of CO₂ emplacement. Most of the CO₂ accumulation is dissolved in pore fluids. Therefore, in a reservoir similar to the Brae Formation, engineered CO₂ storage must rely on physical retention mechanisms because mineral trapping is both incomplete and slow.     

A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm for rapid quantification of geologic uncertainty

Geologic uncertainties and limited well data often render recovery forecasting a difficult undertaking in typical appraisal and early development settings. Recent advances in geologic modeling algorithms permit automation of the model generation process via macros and geostatistical tools. This allows rapid construction of multiple alternative geologic realizations. Despite the advances in geologic modeling, computation of the reservoir dynamic response via full-physics reservoir simulation remains a computationally expensive task. Therefore, only a few of the many probable realizations are simulated in practice. Experimental design techniques typically focus on a few discrete geologic realizations as they are inherently more suitable for continuous engineering parameters and can only crudely approximate the impact of geology. A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm (FPRA) has been developed for quantifying the forecast uncertainty as an alternative. The proposed algorithm relies on the rapid characterization of the geologic uncertainty space represented by an ensemble of sufficiently diverse static model realizations. FPRA characterizes the geologic uncertainty space by calculating connectivity distances, which quantify how different each individual realization is from all others in terms of recovery response. Fast streamline simulations are employed in evaluating these distances. By applying pattern recognition techniques to connectivity distances, a few representative realizations are identified within the model ensemble for full-physics simulation. In turn, the recovery factor probability distribution is derived from these intelligently selected simulation runs. Here, FPRA is tested on an example case where the objective is to accurately compute the recovery factor statistics as a function of geologic uncertainty in a channelized turbidite reservoir. Recovery factor cumulative distribution functions computed by FPRA compare well to the one computed via exhaustive full-physics simulations.     

Industry participation in stock assessment: the New Zealand SNA1 snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

We describe industry funded contributions to the assessment of the SNA1 snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery during the 1990s and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of industry funded research. We also provide background on the history of fisheries management in New Zealand, on the current assessment and management processes, and on the SNA1 snapper fishery. In the SNA1 fishery, the contributions of industry and the cooperation with Government scientists has resulted in high quality assessments. In our opinion, the advantages of industry funded research out weigh the disadvantages and suggest that industry funded assessments are highly desirable and should be an integral part of any management system.     

Tidally incised valleys on tropical carbonate shelves: An example from the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The formation of incised valleys on continental shelves is generally attributed to fluvial erosion under low sea level conditions. However, there are exceptions. A multibeam sonar survey at the northern end of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, adjacent to the southern edge of the Gulf of Papua, mapped a shelf valley system up to 220 m deep that extends for more than 90 km across the continental shelf. This is the deepest shelf valley yet found in the Great Barrier Reef and is well below the maximum depth of fluvial incision that could have occurred under a − 120 m, eustatic sea level low-stand, as what occurred on this margin during the last ice age. These valleys appear to have formed by a combination of reef growth and tidal current scour, probably in relation to a sea level at around 30–50 m below its present position.

Tidally incised depressions in the valley floor exhibit closed bathymetric contours at both ends. Valley floor sediments are mainly calcareous muddy, gravelly sand on the middle shelf, giving way to well-sorted, gravely sand containing a large relict fraction on the outer shelf. The valley extends between broad platform reefs and framework coral growth, which accumulated through the late Quaternary, coincides with tidal current scour to produce steep-sided (locally vertical) valley walls. The deepest segments of the valley were probably the sites of lakes during the last ice age, when Torres Strait formed an emergent land-bridge between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Numerical modeling predicts that the strongest tidal currents occur over the deepest, outer-shelf segment of the valley when sea level is about 40–50 m below its present position. These results are consistent with a Pleistocene age and relict origin of the valley.

Based on these observations, we propose a new conceptual model for the formation of tidally incised shelf valleys. Tidal erosion on meso- to macro-tidal, rimmed carbonate shelves is enhanced during sea level rise and fall when a tidal, hydraulic pressure gradient is established between the shelf-lagoon and the adjacent ocean basin. Tidal flows attain a maximum, and channel incision is greatest, when a large hydraulic pressure gradient coincides with small channel cross sections. Our tidal-incision model may explain the observation of other workers, that sediment is exported from the Great Barrier Reef shelf to the adjacent ocean basins during intermediate (rather than last glacial maximum) low-stand, sea level positions. The model may apply to other rimmed shelves, both modern and ancient.