Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Variazioni del moto polare della Terra e loro correlazioni meteorologiche

Riassunto Vengono documentate ed illustrate alcune correlazioni fra le alterazioni del moto di rotazione terrestre iniziatesi nel 1923 con gli eventi meteorologici; in particolare si discutono e si spiegano in tal modo le forti anomalie della pressione osservate a Genova nel periodo 1924–32.

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Zusammenfassung Störungen in der Bewegung des Erdkörpers und Verschiebungen seiner Rotaktionsachse rufen Wirkungen hervor, welcke mit der Anpassung der Luftmassen an den neuen Bewegungen und an den neuen Lagen der Rotaktionsachse sich ausdrucken. Das führt zu Veränderungen der Luftströmungen, der Luftdruckverteilungen und daher der Grossewetterlagen. Einige meteorologischen Korrelationen dieser Art werden für die bedeutende Störung der Polarbewegung des 1923 gezeigt. Nachher werden damit besonders die starken Luftdruckanomalien erklärt, welche in Genua in der Periode 1924–32 beobachtet worden sind.

     

Using semivariogram parameter uncertainty in hydrogeological applications

Geostatistical estimation (kriging) and geostatistical simulation are routinely used in ground water hydrology for optimal spatial interpolation and Monte Carlo risk assessment, respectively. Both techniques are based on a model of spatial variability (semivariogram or covariance) that generally is not known but must be inferred from the experimental data. Where the number of experimental data is small (say, several tens), as is not unusual in ground water hydrology, the model fitted to the empirical semivariogram entails considerable uncertainty. If all the practical results are based on this unique fitted model, the final results will be biased. We propose that, instead of using a unique semivariogram model, the full range of models that are inside a given confidence region should be used, and the weight that each semivariogram model has on the final result should depend on its plausibility. The first task, then, is to evaluate the uncertainty of the model, which can be efficiently done by using maximum likelihood inference. The second task is to use the range of plausible models in applications and to show the effect observed on the final results. This procedure is put forth here with kriging and simulation applications, where the uncertainty in semivariogram parameters is propagated into the final results (e.g., the prediction of ground water head). A case study using log-transmissivity data from the Vega de Granada aquifer, in southern Spain, is given to illustrate the methodology.     

Shear partitioning in the Philippines: Constraints from Philippine Fault and global positioning system data

Abstract The Philippine Fault is a major left-lateral structure formed in an island arc setting. It accommodates a component of the oblique convergence between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Philippine archipelago. This observation is quantified through a series of global positioning satellite experiments between 1991 and 1996. The formation of the Fault marks the onset of a new geodynamic regime in the Philippine region. In the central Philippines, this event corresponds to the creation of a new tectonic boundary separating the Philippine Mobile Belt and the Philippine Sea Plate, following the latter's kinematic reorganization that occurred around 4 Ma ago. During this event, the Philippine Sea Plate changed its relative movement with respect to Eurasia from a northward to a north-westward motion, favoring the formation of a Philippine Fault–Philippine Trench system under a shear partitioning mechanism.     

Groundwater chemistry of strike slip faulted aquifers: the case study of Wadi Zerka Ma’in aquifers, north east of the Dead Sea

Wadi Zerka Ma’in catchment area is located to the north east of the Dead Sea. It has two types of aquifers: (a) an upper unconfined aquifer and (b) a lower confined aquifer. The two aquifers are separated by a marl aquiclude. A major strike slip fault passes perpendicularly through the two aquifers and the aquiclude layer with embedded normal faults. The aim of the study was to specify the effect of the major strike slip fault on the groundwater chemistry. The spatial variability of the hydrochemical compositions and physiochemical parameters of the groundwater were investigated. It was found that the embedded normal faults, of the strike slip fault, form conduits that allow groundwater to flow from the lower aquifer to the upper aquifer, resulting in mixed groundwater. The ratio of mixing was estimated to be 94 % groundwater from the upper aquifer and 6 % from the lower aquifer. Since groundwater in the lower aquifer is around three times more saline than the upper aquifer, water mixing into the upper water aquifer generates a salinity hazard.     

The relationship between reference canopy conductance and simplified hydraulic architecture

Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r²=0.75)$(r^2=0.75)$. The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r²=0.68)$(r^2=0.68)$ and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.     

Solar constant and sunspots

Summary The relationship, already found by the authors, between sunspot numbers and the solar constant, as deduced from the highest global irradiance values at noon, is here reexamined and confirmed. Some attempts at explanation and further inferences are presented.     

Design of backfilled thin-seam coal pillars using earth pressure theory

In underground coal mining any increase in coal recovery rate is dependent on a decrease in pillar size. Backfilling is one way of reducing the required size of pillars and hence the volume of coal left underground. Therefore any comparisons made between a self-supported mine layout and backfill supported mine layout are based directly on pillar design. The most effective way to examine the effect of backfill on pillar support, and subsequently the rate of recovery, would be to incorporate the mechanisms of backfill support directly into the current design procedure for coal pillars. This paper presents a review of the mechanics of backfill support, a method of estimating the magnitude of that support based on earth pressure theory, and an example that incorporates backfill support into current coal pillar design.     

Biological and physical events involved in the origin,effects, and control of organic matter in solar saltworks

Aspects of communities and events in the concentrating ponds (S.G. 1.130 to 1.214) and salt crystallizing ponds (S.G. 1.215 to 1.264) of solar saltworks pertinent to salt manufacture are described. Communities that aid salt manufacture enable continuous and efficient production of high quality salt at a saltworks' design capacity, and they provide important controls on levels of organic matter in the brine. Fluctuating salinities, high concentrations of nutrients, and petroleum products are disturbances that causeAphanothece halophytica andDunaliella salina to release excessive quantities of organic matter, and that suppress or cause death to nutrient stripping organisms. Disturbances result in decreased quality and quantity of salt and increased costs for salt harvest, washing, and pond upkeep. Organic matter can be controlled by management techniques that keep nutrient stripping communities at proper levels and maintain a narrow and unchanging range of salinities in each pond, by constructing pond dikes able to withstand wind and water erosion, and by preventing spills of petroleum products in the ponds.     

Crustal attenuation in the Southern Andean retroarc (38°–39°30′ S) determined from tectonic and gravimetric studies: The Lonco-Luán asthenospheric anomaly

The western retroarc of the Southern Andes between 38° and 40° S is formed by a NNW-elongated ridge not associated with stacked thrust sheets. On the contrary, during the last 4–3 Ma this ridge was affected by extensional deformation, regional uplift and related folding on a very broad scale. Receiver function analysis shows that the drainage divide area and adjacent retroarc lie over an attenuated crust. Expected crustal thickness at these latitudes is around 38 km, whereas in this part of the retroarc the thickness is less than 32 km. The causes for such attenuation have been linked to a moderate steepening of the subducted Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, which is suggested by a westward shift and narrowing of the magmatic arc during the last 4 to 5 Ma. Gravimetric studies show that the upper plate did not react homogeneously to slab steepening, but ancient sutures and lithospheric discontinuities deeply buried under Mesozoic to Cenozoic sequences in the retroarc were locally reactivated. These processes resulted in an asthenospheric anomaly that correlates at the surface with the area of Pliocene to Quaternary doming, widespread extension and three radial troughs. Two of the troughs have accommodated substantial amounts of extension, but the third was probably aborted at an early stage. Moreover, the presence of an anomalous concentration of calderas and large volcanic centers over the proposed asthenospheric anomaly, and their age distribution, may indicate minor migration of the asthenospheric anomaly between 4 and 2 Ma through the western South American plate.