A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.     

The framing of climate change and development: A comparative analysis of the Human Development Report 2007/8 and the World Development Report 2010

The Human Development Report 2007/8 (HDR) and the World Development Report 2010 (WDR) are both devoted to the connections between climate change and development. The reports provide very different perspectives on where the key challenges reside. Their policy proposals are also different, but much less so. Using a combination of frame and content analysis complemented with attention to how these institutions and their knowledge production processes operate, the paper develops a structured comparison of the problem-framing and solution-framing in the Overviews of the two reports. It compares the reports’ conceptions of development; their normative content and the roles given to human rights; the pathways and solutions the agencies defend, and how protective they are of the poor; the status given to proposed market solutions; what types of information and expert perspective are prioritized and why, and which issues are neglected. Following its stress on human rights and ethical principles, the HDR does not unsettle the market driven solutions to climate change that dominate the global policy arena. Different policy instruments and a fuller institutionalization of its human rights concerns is required, in organizations, processes, methodologies and knowledge networks that could move the ideas forward and continually press for their use. This may require a different model of report preparation.     

Behavior of rigid blocks with geometrical defects under seismic motion: an experimental and numerical study

The present work investigates the influence of small geometrical defects on the behavior of slender rigid blocks. A comprehensive experimental campaign was carried out on one of the shake tables of CEA/Saclay in France. The tested model was a massive steel block with standard manufacturing quality. Release, free oscillations tests as well as shake table tests revealed a non‐negligible out‐of‐plane motion even in the case of apparently plane initial conditions or excitations. This motion exhibits a highly reproducible part for a short duration that was used to calibrate a numerical geometrically asymmetrical model. The stability of this model when subjected to 2000 artificial seismic horizontal bidirectional signals was compared with the stability of a symmetrical one. This study showed that the geometrical imperfections slightly increase the rocking and overturning probabilities for earthquake signals in a narrow range of peak ground acceleration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heavy metals in surface sediments of Waiwhetu Stream,Lower Hutt,New Zealand

Abstract

Surface sediment samples (60 μm‐2 mm, and < 60 μm fractions) from the Waiwhetu Stream, Lower Hutt City, New Zealand, were leached with dilute HCl to remove the mobile heavy‐metal fraction. Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, Al, Fe, and Mn analyses of the leachates show that sediments of the upper reaches area of the stream are generally uncontaminated. In contrast, sediments in the lower reaches area are highly contaminated, despite clean‐up measures in the late 1970s. Lead and Zn are the most significantly enriched metals with concentrations over 1000 mg kg^?1 adjacent to some drains. In the polluted zone, metals originate from either upward remobilisation from underlying sediment (contaminated in the early 1960s and 70s) or more recent industrial spillages. Similar trends exhibited by Cd, Cu, Cr, Zn, Pb, and Al indicate that a proportion of the metal enrichment downstream probably results from a naturally higher clay content of sediments near the mouth of the stream. Fe and Mn show reverse trends to the other metals, indicating that a high proportion of these two metals occurs in substrate different to that of the other metals. The orange brick‐coloured sediments of the upper reaches of the stream indicate oxides upstream; the black sediments in the lower reaches indicate sulphides downstream.     

Changes of lead and barium with time in California off-shore basin sediments

During ancient times the natural deposition fluxes of lead which can be leached with dilute acid from sediments in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica and San Pedro basins offshore from the Los Angeles Urban complex, were about 0.7, 0.1 and 0.2 μg Pb/cm² yr respectively. Since there was little difference in biological productivity in surface waters of these basins, it is proposed that clay is a major transport vehicle for sequestered soluble lead, which then explains why the lead deposition flux within the Santa Barbara basin was so much larger compared to the other basins. The fluxes of silicate mud in the basins in ancient times were about 92, 19 and 30 mg/cm² yr in Santa Barbara, Santa Monica and San Pedro basins respectively. Today deposition fluxes of acid soluble lead within these three basins are 3- to 9-fold greater, being about 2.1, 1.1 and 1.8 μg Pb/cm² yr respectively, partly in the form of directly deposited large sewage particles, which account for none, $\text{2}\text{3}$ and $\text{3}\text{4}$ of the total industrial lead deposition fluxes in the respective basins. Concentrations of leachable lead in varve dated sediment layers increase with time and isotopic compositions of these leads change in accordance with corresponding known changes of isotopic compositions of industrial lead in the Los Angeles atmosphere. Lead remaining in acid leached sediment residues originates from igneous and clay minerals, exhibiting no change in concentration or isotopic composition since pre-industrial times.Deposition fluxes of total barium in sediments among the three basins were proportional to mass deposition fluxes before 1950 in the same manner as for lead. Afterwards, there are barium concentration maxima with time in both Santa Monica and San Pedro Basin sediments which are attributable to industrial sewage rather than to episodic erosion from barium-rich sedimentary evaporite strata exposed locally along the shore. An increase of barium concentrations in present day Santa Barbara basin sediments may reflect dispersal of barium-rich drilling mud from local drilling operations.     

Lead concentrations in the northeast Pacific: evidence for global anthropogenic perturbations

Lead concentrations were determined by isotope dilution mass spectrometry in 34 surface- and deep-water samples collected in the northeast Pacific between Hawaii and California and off the California coast using a deep-water sampler protected against fouling by contamination from the ship and hydrowire. Measured concentrations lie more than one order of magnitude below previously published open ocean values and they show that in most cases 90% or more of the total lead is in a dissolved form. Lead concentrations are about 10-fold higher in surface and thermocline waters than in deep waters; values drop as low as 1 ng/kg (5 pmol/kg) below 3500 m depth. Lead profiles thus appear different compared to those of most trace metals, which show enrichment in deep waters compared to surface concentrations. Lead concentrations in surface waters increase from 5 to 15 ng/kg (25 to 75 pmol/kg) along a transect starting from a location 200 km off the California coast and continuing towards the center of the North Pacific Gyre. This increase is congruent with that observed for²¹⁰Pb concentrations in the same waters sampled at the same time.Lead is supplied to the open North Pacific largely from the atmosphere, at a rate of about 60 ng/cm² yr, which exceeds the prehistoric oceanic output flux of authigenic lead recorded in pelagic sediments about tenfold. This excess originates from emissions from smelters and combustion of leaded gasoline, overwhelming natural lead inputs that entered the ocean during prehistoric time probably largely through rivers. Vertical lead concentration profiles below the surface mixed layer are probably not in steady state. There, concentrations must be increasing in response to the increase of anthropogenic inputs because the estimated lead residence times are more than 20 years in the thermocline and about 80 years in deep waters. Based on an estimated 10-fold input and concentration increase since the mid-eighteenth century in the surface mixed layer in the central northeast Pacific, it is calculated that the 10 ng/kg average concentration between 100 and 900 m is 2 to 5 times larger, and the 1.8 ng/kg average concentration between 900 and 5000 m depth is about 2 times larger than it was in the mid-eighteenth century. Profiles of lead concentrations in the North Atlantic are expected to be shifted generally to larger values by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to those in the North Pacific because of the effects of greater industrial lead contamination, while lead concentration profiles in the South Pacific are expected to be shifted generally to lower values compared to the North Pacific by about this same factor because of the effects of lesser industrial lead contamination.     

The influence of fluid unmixing on cation exchange between plagioclases and aqueous chloride solutions at 700° C, 1 kbar

Experimental exchanges between plagioclases (synthesized from gels) and aqueous solutions (0.5N–8N) were carried out according to the reaction $$\begin{gathered} 2NaA1Si_3 O_8 + CaC1_2 \hfill \\ \leftrightarrow CaA1_2 Si_2 O_8 + 4SiO_2 + 2NaC1. \hfill \\ \end{gathered}$$ Distribution coefficients defined by $$K_D = \frac{{X_{An} }}{{(X_{Ab} )^2 }}\frac{{(X_{NaC1} )^2 }}{{X_{CaC1_2 } }}$$ were determined at 700° C and 1 kbar. From previous studies it is known that variations in the concentration of the aqueous solutions have no influence upon K _D if the fluid is a single phase. In this study, variation of K _D with the concentration of the solutions is interpreted as the result of fluid unmixing to vapour and brine phases. This implies boiling of CaCl₂-NaCl-H₂O fluids analogous to that known for the system NaCl-H₂O. Experimental data permit calculation of the compositions of vapours and estimation of those of the brines for fluids in which Ca/Na<0.5. Boiling has an effect upon the exchange between feldspars and solutions (metasomatism) and must be considered when determining the activity coefficients.     

Past and future changes to acidified eastern Canadian lakes: A geochemical modeling approach

As SO₂ emissions are being reduced in North America, it has become important to know how rapidly the surface water chemistry of aquatic systems will recover. The authors applied the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC) to 410 acid-sensitive lakes located in a 3000 km east–west gradient in eastern Canada. The goal was to estimate the water chemistry from pre-acidification times, under worst case conditions (mid 1970s) and what it should be in the year 2030 after proposed acid emission reduction levels agreed-to or planned by Canada and the United States are in place. In eastern Canada, large decreases in pH and ANC are shown between pre-acidification and 1975, the year of greatest historical deposition. Current-day conditions are much improved from 1975. Under the most likely future acid deposition reduction scenarios, an improvement of pH and ANC is shown in all the regions from current-day levels, but not to pre-acidification levels. Dissolved Ca levels were considerably higher at the height of acidification than under pristine conditions, but will return to pre-acidification levels at most of the sites by the year 2030. The results also show that under proposed control programs, a large number of sites in eastern Canada will not return to ANC values >40 μeq L⁻¹, thought to be suitable for healthy aquatic communities.     

Environmental status of several Shubenacadie River headwater lakes,Nova Scotia,Canada

The Shubenacadie River basin is the largest watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada, encompassing an area of approximately 2,800 km² and supporting one of the most rapidly expanding populations in Atlantic Canada. A comprehensive study was carried out to assess the effect of recent development in the basin on the headwater lakes. Information on the environmental status of the lakes can be further used in the development of a management framework for the basin with respect to water quality and quantity objectives.Water and sediment quality were investigated in four of the Shubenacadie River headwater lakes. In addition, trophic status of the lakes was assessed by using dissolved phosphorus and oxygen concentrations. The surface area and mean depth of the lakes ranged from 0.83 to 1.13 km² and 4.3 to 6.6 m, respectively. Three of the studied lakes were thermally stratified during the summer. The concentration of dissolved oxygen decreased significantly in the hypolimnion during the stratification period, although the lakes were generally classified as oligotrophic. The water quality is typical for lakes of the area. The pH of the water ranged between 6.1 and 7.3 during the study period. Major ions were chloride, sodium, and sulphate. A significant increase of As, Hg, Zn, Pb, Cu, Ni and Co was found in surface sediments in all four lakes. However, the concentration of these elements in lake water was lower than recommended guidelines for aquatic life and human consumption.