Predictive potential of Perzyna viscoplastic modelling for granular geomaterials

This paper reappraises Perzyna-type viscoplasticity for the constitutive modelling of granular geomaterials, with emphasis on the simulation of rate/time effects of different magnitude. An existing elasto-plastic model for sands is first recast into a Perzyna viscoplastic formulation and then calibrated/validated against laboratory test results on Hostun sand from the literature. Notable model features include (1) enhanced definition of the viscous nucleus function and (2) void ratio dependence of stiffness and viscous parameters, to model the pycnotropic behaviour of granular materials with a single set of parameters, uniquely identified against standard creep and triaxial test results. The comparison between experimental data and numerical simulations points out the predicative capability of the developed model and the complexity of defining a unique viscous nucleus function to capture sand behaviour under different loading/initial/boundary and drainage conditions. It is concluded that the unified viscoplastic simulation of both drained and undrained response is particularly challenging within Perzyna's framework and opens to future research in the area. The discussion presented is relevant, for instance, to the simulation of multiphase strain localisation phenomena, such as those associated to slope stability problems in variably saturated soils.     

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany,Italy, using high‐resolution regional projections

This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias‐corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031–2040) and long term (2051–2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003–2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003–2012, is expected at medium term (?0.6%) and long term (?2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (?1.1% and ?6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of ?3.3% at 2031–2040 and ?8.1% at 2051–2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam‐reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.     

New high‐resolution age data from the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary indicate rapid,ecologically driven onset of the Cambrian explosion

The replacement of the late Precambrian Ediacaran biota by morphologically disparate animals at the beginning of the Phanerozoic was a key event in the history of life on Earth, the mechanisms and the time‐scales of which are not entirely understood. A composite section in Namibia providing biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data bracketed by radiometric dating constrains the Ediacaran–Cambrian boundary to 538.6–538.8 Ma, more than 2 Ma younger than previously assumed. The U–Pb‐CA‐ID TIMS zircon ages demonstrate an ultrashort time frame for the LAD of the Ediacaran biota to the FAD of a complex, burrowing Phanerozoic biota represented by trace fossils to a 410 ka time window of 538.99 ± 0.21 Ma to 538.58 ± 0.19 Ma. The extremely short duration of the faunal transition from Ediacaran to Cambrian biota within less than 410 ka supports models of ecological cascades that followed the evolutionary breakthrough of increased mobility at the beginning of the Phanerozoic.     

Impacts of environmental stressors on the water resources of intensively managed hydrologic systems

Watersheds are complex systems due to their surface and subsurface spatially connected water fluxes and biochemical processes that shape Earth's critical zone. In intensively managed landscapes, the implementation of watershed management practices (WMPs) regulate their short‐term responses, whereas climate variability controls the long‐term processes. Understanding their responses to anthropogenic and natural stressors requires a holistic approach that takes into account their multiscale spatio‐temporal linkages. The objective of this study was to simulate the impacts of spatially and temporally varying WMPs and projected climate changes on the surface and groundwater resources in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (USRB), a watershed in central Illinois greatly impacted by agricultural and industrial operations. The physically based hydrologic model MIKE‐SHE was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the basin to different WMPs and climatic conditions. The simulation of a WMP was varied spatially across the basin to determine the spectrum of responses and critical conditions. In general, the wetlands and forested riparian buffer scenarios were found to cause a reduction in the average streamflow, whereas crop rotation had varied responses depending on the location of implementation and the climate condition assumed. Reductions of up to 30% in the average streamflow were found for the forested riparian buffer under the ESM 2M climate projections, whereas an increase of up to 13% with the crop rotation schemes under CM3 climate was predicted. The model results showed that the installation of tile drains across the USRB increased the water table depth (from ground level) by up to 56%, making crop production possible. Groundwater level in USRB appeared to be more sensitive to future climatic conditions than to WMP implementation. The impacts of WMPs are determined to depend on the climate conditions under which they are applied. Investigating individual and combined stressors' effects over the critical zone at a watershed scale can lead to a more comprehensive analysis of the risk and trade‐offs in every managerial decision that will enable an efficient use of resources.     

Fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet recorded in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of periglacial loess from Ukraine

The azimuth of imbrication of minimum magnetic susceptibility axes in the youngest loess from Ukraine defines prevailing wind directions during aeolian sedimentation. It changes along the studied sections. These changes can be directly correlated with the fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. The northern and northeastern winds noted in the loess succession separated by a period when southwestern to southeastern winds were predominant may be correlated with two main phases of ice‐sheet advance during the Last Glacial Maximum. The ice‐sheet advances towards the areas of loess deposition generated katabatic winds that influenced aeolian sedimentation in the periglacial zone. A period of relatively stable wind directions during a younger phase of the Last Glacial Maximum was interrupted by periods with more chaotic wind regime most probably caused by fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet during its retreat from the peri‐Baltic part of Europe. These intervals occur where initial soils developed. The distribution of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility axes defined along the periglacial loess sections from central and eastern Europe can serve to constrain fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.     

Chemical speciation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments: Partitioning and extraction of humic substances

The primary objective of this study was to examine the chemical speciation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) found in sediments endowed with different characteristics. To achieve this purpose and because the nature of the sediments influences the distribution of PAHs, we have analyzed four different types of sediments. To study the role of organic matter in the sequestration of PAHs, we fractionated humic substances into humic acids and humin-mineral fractions. After their separation and purification, the humic components were examined for their sorptive reactivity by extracting them with organic solvents; these extracts were subsequently subjected to GC/MS analysis. Our results show that PAHs are distributed between labile and sequestered fractions in sediments. A slower uptake of PAHs occurs when the sequestered fraction is formed, and this process can be prolonged and may be influenced by the characteristics if the sediment. Our study suggests that organic contaminants are available in muddy sediments for a longer period of time than in sandy sediments.     

Analysis of the reliability of a statistical oil spill response model

A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning.     

Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Xenon Isotopic Activity Ratios

A global monitoring system for atmospheric xenon radioactivity is being established as part of the International Monitoring System that will verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) once the treaty has entered into force. This paper studies isotopic activity ratios to support the interpretation of observed atmospheric concentrations of ¹³⁵Xe, ^133mXe, ¹³³Xe and ^131mXe. The goal is to distinguish nuclear explosion sources from civilian releases. Simulations of nuclear explosions and reactors, empirical data for both test and reactor releases as well as observations by measurement stations of the International Noble Gas Experiment (INGE) are used to provide a proof of concept for the isotopic ratio based method for source discrimination.