An Observational Study of Wind Profiles in the Baroclinic Convective Mixed Layer

A comprehensive planetary boundary-layer (PBL) and synoptic data set is used to isolate the mechanisms that determine the vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the convective mixed layer. To do this, we compare a fair-weather convective PBL with no vertical shear through the mixed layer (10 March 1992), with a day with substantial vertical shear in the north-south wind component (27 February). The approach involves evaluating the terms of the budget equations for the two components of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind; namely: the time-rate-of-change or time-tendency term, differential advection, the Coriolis terms (a thermal wind term and a shear term), and the second derivative of the vertical transport of horizontal momentum with respect to height (turbulent-transport term). The data, gathered during the 1992 STorm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) Fronts Experiments Systems Test (FEST) field experiment, are from gust-probe aircraft horizontal legs and soundings, 915-MHz wind profilers, a 5-cm Doppler radar, radiosondes, and surface Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM) stations in a roughly 50 × 50 km boundary-layer array in north-eastern Kansas, nested in a mesoscale-to-synoptic array of radiosondes and surface data.We present evidence that the shear on 27 February is related to the rapid growth of the convective boundary layer. Computing the shear budget over a fixed depth (the final depth of the mixed layer), we find that the time-tendency term dominates, reflecting entrainment of high-shear air from above the boundary layer. We suggest that shear within the mixed layer occurs when the time-tendency term is sufficiently large that the shear-reduction terms – namely the turbulent-transport term and differential advection terms – cannot compensate. In contrast, the tendency term is small for the slowly-growing PBL of 10 March, resulting in a balance between the Coriolis terms and the turbulent-transport term. Thus, the thermal wind appears to influence mixed-layer shear only indirectly, through its role in determining the entrained shear.     

Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Wildfire Severity: A Regional Forecast for Northern California

We estimated the impact of climatic change on wildland fire and suppression effectiveness in northern California by linking general circulation model output to local weather and fire records and projecting fire outcomes with an initial-attack suppression model. The warmer and windier conditions corresponding to a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario produced fires that burned more intensely and spread faster in most locations. Despite enhancement of fire suppression efforts, the number of escaped fires (those exceeding initial containment limits) increased 51% in the south San Francisco Bay area, 125% in the Sierra Nevada, and did not change on the north coast. Changes in area burned by contained fires were 41%, 41% and –8%, respectively. When interpolated to most of northern California's wildlands, these results translate to an average annual increase of 114 escapes (a doubling of the current frequency) and an additional 5,000 hectares (a 50% increase) burned by contained fires. On average, the fire return intervals in grass and brush vegetation types were cut in half. The estimates reported represent a minimum expected change, or best-case forecast. In addition to the increased suppression costs and economic damages, changes in fire severity of this magnitude would have widespread impacts on vegetation distribution, forest condition, and carbon storage, and greatly increase the risk to property, natural resources and human life.     

Evaluating spatiotemporal variation in water chemistry of the upper Colorado River using longitudinal profiling

Stream water chemistry is traditionally measured as variation over time at fixed sites, with sparse sites providing a crude understanding of spatial heterogeneity. An alternative Lagrangian reference frame measures changes with respect to both space and time as water travels through a network. Here, we collected sensor-based measurements of water chemistry at high spatial resolution along nearly 500 km of the Upper Colorado River. Our objective was to understand sources of spatiotemporal heterogeneity across different solutes and determine whether longitudinal change manifests as smooth gradients as suggested by the River Continuum Concept (RCC) or as abrupt changes as suggested by the Serial Discontinuity Concept (SDC). Our results demonstrate that Lagrangian sampling integrates spatiotemporal variation, and profiles reflect processes that vary in both space and time and over different scales. Over each day of sampling, water temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO) varied strongly in response to diel solar cycles, with most of the variation driven by sampling time rather than sampling location. Equilibration of T and DO with the atmosphere limited small scale spatial heterogeneity, with variation at the entire profile scale driven by regional climate gradients. As such, T and DO profiles more closely approximated the smooth gradients of the RCC (though including temporal sampling artefacts). Conversely, variation in specific conductance and nitrate (NO₃-N) was largely driven by spatial patterns of lateral inflows such as tributaries and groundwater. This resulted in discrete shifts in the profiles at or downstream of discontinuities, appearing as the profiles expected with the SDC. The concatenation of spatiotemporal variation that produces observed Lagrangian profiles presents interpretive challenges but also augments our understanding of where, how, and critically why water chemistry changes in time and space as it moves through river networks.     

Increased toxicity of benzo(a)pyrene-7,8-dihydrodiol in the presence of polychlorobiphenylols

Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) often co-exist in contaminated environments. Polychlorobiphenylols (OH-PCBs), formed by CYP-dependent monooxygenation of PCBs, are potent inhibitors of the glucuronidation of hydroxylated BaP metabolites. We hypothesized that OH-PCBs could drive the biotransformation of (-)BaP-7,8-dihydrodiol (BaP-7, 8-D) away from detoxication and towards formation of the reactive metabolite. A mixture of five OH-PCBs with 4-6 Cl atoms was infused into isolated, perfused, biliary intact livers (n=3 fish) removed from 3-methylcholanthrene-induced channel catfish. Controls (n=3) were infused with vehicle. Subsequently, [3H]-BaP-7, 8-D was infused into each liver and bile was collected for 1 h. The livers were taken for analysis of metabolites and DNA adducts. Induction status was confirmed by EROD assay. Bile was analyzed for metabolites. It was found that preinfusion of the mixture of OH-PCBs reduced the extent of glucuronidation of BaP-7, 8-D and increased the formation of DNA adducts 5-fold over controls. GSH conjugates, tetrols and triols were increased in the OH-PCB-infused fish, providing further support for our hypothesis that if the glucuronidation were inhibited, CYP-dependent activation would increase. These studies suggest a mechanism for synergy of toxicity of PAH and PCBs.     

Identification of transcriptional effects of ethynyl oestradiol in male plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) by suppression subtractive hybridisation and a nylon macroarray

Suppression subtractive hybridisation (SSH) was used to generate cDNA libraries representing genes differentially expressed in response to ethynyl oestradiol (EE2) exposure in liver from male plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) previously analysed for vitellogenin (VTG) induction. Characterisation of the cDNA clones identified many as VTG (2 genes) and zona radiata proteins (ZRP) (3 genes), but 40 encoded other proteins, with more than half cryptic. Further analysis identified 85 non-redundant clones suitable for array on nylon membrane. Radiolabelled cDNAs were prepared from hepatic mRNA from EE2 treated plaice (0 and 21 days) and hybridised with the arrayed clones. Analysis of the data showed that 11/17 novel, 21/22 VTG, 13/14 ZRP, 2/2 liver aspartic proteinase (LAP) and 8/10 other mRNAs were up-regulated by EE2 exposure.     

Factors influencing landscape pattern of the seagrass Halophila decipiens in an oceanic setting

The scale of landscape pattern formation of an ecological community may provide clues as to the processes influencing its spatial and temporal dynamics. We conducted an examination of the spatial organization of an annual seagrass (Halophila decipiens) in an open ocean setting at two spatial scales and growing seasons to identify the relative influence of external (hurricanes) versus internal (clonal growth) factors. Visual surveys of seagrass cover were conducted over 2 years within three replicate 1 km² study areas each separated by ∼25 km in an inshore–offshore transect along the southwest coast of Florida at depths between ∼10 and 30 m. A towed video sled allowed observations of seagrass cover of 1 m² areas approximately every 6 m over thousands of meters of evenly spaced transects within the study areas (coarse scale). The towed video revealed that 17.5% of the seafloor was disturbed irrespective of location or sample time. Randomly selected 10 × 10 m quadrats within the larger, 1 km² study areas were completely surveyed for seagrass cover by divers at 0.625 m² resolution (fine scale). The coarse-scale observations were tested using both conventional geostatistics and an application of a time-series technique (Runs test) for scale of seagrass cover contiguity. Fine-scale observations were examined using conventional geostatistics and a least squares approach (cumulative logistic).     

Gender, geography and policy: the conundrums of engagement

This paper contemplates the relationship between the discipline of geography, and the making of public policy. It is particularly concerned with the compatibilities and incompatibilities of the nature of academic knowledge production and public policy development. As such, we contribute to an ongoing debate among geographers regarding whether and how they should engage with policy, and utilize examples from our involvement in the Metropolis Project, a Canadian initiative based on interdisciplinary research networks linked to government and public service agencies involved in immigrant settlement. We argue ultimately that geographers do need to engage politically with policymaking, but that the manner in which to do this is never straightforward, but rather takes place across institutional, ideological, and political landscapes that are perpetually shifting. Finally we suggest some helpful tools from feminist methodologies with which to approach policy-related issues.     

Towards a Li barometer for bimineralic eclogites: experiments in CMAS

An eclogite barometer has profound importance in the study of upper mantle processes and potential application to diamond prospecting. Studies on the partitioning of Li between clinopyroxene (cpx) and garnet (grt) in natural samples have shown that this particular element is very sensitive to changes in pressure and could be calibrated as the barometer demanded for bimineralic eclogites. Experiments were performed from 4 to 13 GPa and 1,100–1,400°C in the CMAS (CaO, MgO, Al₂O₃, SiO₂) system with Li added as Li₃PO₄ to quantify this pressure dependence into a barometer expressed in the following equation: P = (0.00255T – ln K _d)/0.2351 where P is in GPa, T is in °C and K _d is defined as the partition coefficient of Li (in ppm) between clinopyroxene and garnet. The experimental pressures are reproduced to ±0.38 GPa (1σ) by this equation. This barometer is strictly applicable only to CMAS. Experiments at 1,300°C, 8–12 GPa showed that Henry’s Law is fulfilled for Li partitioning between cpx and grt in the concentration range of approximately 0.01–1 wt% Li. Direct application of the equation to experiments in natural systems performed at 1,300°C from 4 to 13 GPa consistently overestimates pressures by approximately 2 GPa. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.