Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999–2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981–2000 and 2081–2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9?days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34?days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.     

Complex dynamics of small-moderate volcanic events: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile

After decades of repose, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) erupted in June 2011 following a month of continuously increasing seismic activity. The eruption dispersed a large volume of rhyolitic tephra over a wide area and was characterized by complex dynamics. During the initial climactic phase of the eruption (24–30 h on 4–5 June), 11–14-km-high plumes dispersed most of the erupted tephra eastward towards Argentina, reaching as far as the Atlantic Ocean. This first eruptive phase was followed by activity of lower intensity, leading to the development of a complex stratigraphic sequence, mainly due to rapid shifts in wind direction and eruptive style. The resulting tephra deposits consist of 13 main layers grouped into four units. Each layer was characterized based on its dispersal direction, sedimentological features, and on the main characteristics of the juvenile fraction (texture, density, petrography, chemistry). The lowest part of the eruptive sequence (Unit I), corresponding to the tephra emitted between 4 and 5 June, is composed of alternating lapilli layers with a total estimated volume of ca. 0.75 km³; these layers record the highest intensity phase, during which a bent-over plume dispersed tephra towards the southeast-east, with negligible up-wind sedimentation. Products emitted during 5–6 June (Unit II) signaled an abrupt shift in wind direction towards the north, leading to the deposition of a coarse ash deposit in the northern sector (ca. 0.21 km³ in volume), followed by a resumption of easterly directed winds. A third phase (Unit III) began on 7 June and resulted in tephra deposits in the eastern sector and ballistic bombs around the vent area. A final phase (Unit IV) started after 15 June and was characterized by the emission of fine-grained white tephra from ash-charged plumes during low-level activity and the extrusion of a viscous lava flow. Timing and duration of the first eruptive phases were constrained based on comparison of the dispersal of the main tephra layers with satellite images, showing that most of the tephra was emitted during the first 72 h of the event. The analyzed juvenile material tightly clusters within the rhyolitic field, with negligible chemical variations through the eruptive sequence. Textural observations reveal that changes in eruption intensity (and consequently in magma ascent velocity within the conduit) and complex interactions between gas-rich and gas-depleted magma portions during ascent resulted in vesicular clasts with variable degrees of shear localization, and possibly in the large heterogeneity of the juvenile material.     

Equivalent diffusion coefficient of clay-rich geological formations: comparison between numerical and analytical estimates

Laboratory experiments in rock samples collected from clay-rich formations indicate that the effective molecular diffusion coefficient (D) is a heterogeneous and anisotropic property. Since laboratory measurements of D are representative of a very small volume, upscaling is necessary in order to incorporate these data in large-scale numerical models of diffusive transport. In this work we address the problem of the estimating the equivalent diffusion coefficient (D _eq ), in terms of total diffusive flux, in a three-dimensional domain characterized by a heterogeneous and anisotropic spatial distribution of D. D _eq was estimated from the results of steady-state diffusive transport simulations through several realizations of the D field. The ensemble averages of D _eq from fields with different degrees of heterogeneity and anisotropy were then compared with estimates from analytical upscaling expressions based on stochastic as well as power-averaging approaches. These expressions are largely based on similar expressions developed for calculating the effective hydraulic conductivity in heterogeneous and anisotropic domains. Comparisons showed that stochastic expressions provide accurate estimates of D _eq only for fields characterized by low heterogeneity. Within the range of heterogeneity and anisotropy considered, our results showed that a power-averaging expression is very accurate in predicting D _eq especially when the parameter p _i is estimated through fitting of the numerical results. Nonetheless, the relationship between this parameter and the anisotropy ratio is linear.     

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.     

Do small marinas drive habitat specific impacts? A case study from Mediterranean Sea

Many human activities add new structures to the marine landscape. Despite the fact that human structures cause some inevitable impacts, surprisingly little information exists on the effects of marina on natural marine assemblages. The aim of this paper is to assess habitat-specific response of benthic sessile organisms of rocky shores in relation to the presence of a small marina. Sampling was carried out at three coastal habitats (midshore, lowshore and subtidal) by means of visual censuses adopting an after-control-impact (ACI) experimental design. It appears that the marina affects the structure and composition of benthic communities of both the midshore and the lowshore. Little effect was evident on shallow subtidal assemblage structure. The results of the present study clearly show habitat-specific responses of coastal benthic assemblages to the presence of infrastructure.     

Underground Measurements of Electromagnetic Radiation Related to Stress-induced Fractures in the Odenwald Mountains (Germany)

The regional stress field at Wald-Michelbach (Odenwald Mountains, Germany) induces a secondary stress field around the space of the local railway tunnel. Resulting maximum shear stresses produce microfractures, which emit electromagnetic radiation (EMR). From EMR measured along the cross section and the long axis of the tunnel, the regional stress field is determined by a correlation of detected impulses per time with stresses calculated from the orientation of the tunnel, its diameter, and topographic load. The major horizontal principal stress has an azimuth of 103°. At times, strongly alternating EMR values are observed, which indicate electromagnetic disturbances of unknown origin. Such disturbances are identified by repeated measurements and are not evaluated. The repeated measurements, which are not disturbed, differ with median 112 impulses per 100 ms. This difference corresponds to 0.037 MPa and indicates a good reproducibility of the results. Regional stress magnitudes and the WNW-ESE orientation of the major horizontal principal stress indicate a minor N – S directed tensional force at the western shoulder of the Upper Rhine Graben.     

Vertical oscillations due to axial-bending coupling during seismic response of RC bridge piers

The paper presents a numerical investigation on the behaviour of reinforced concrete bridge piers subjected to horizontal seismic input. The scope of the investigation is to quantify the phenomenon of bending-induced axial vibrations. The results of a set of analyses conducted on single-column bent systems indicate that flexural cracking produces, in fact, significant axial vibrations. This effect is particularly relevant in squat elements with low axial force where the sway of the cross-sectional neutral axis under alternate bending causes strong hammering impulses at crack closure. Quantification of the effects related to this phenomenon can be determinant for the seismic assessment of existing bridges as well as for the design of new bridges. Likewise, performance and design forces of bearings and other anti-seismic devices can be estimated with more accuracy, based on the expected level of combined vertical and horizontal acceleration response on decks. The pier overall flexural response is not significantly altered by the fluctuation in axial force associated to these impulses, although local moment–curvature behaviour is, due to axial–bending interaction. Shear resisting mechanisms should be more sensitive to these vibrations and shear failure anticipated when a reduction in the axial contribution to the section shear capacity occurs. A tentative equation for the prediction of this flexural-induced vertical acceleration component is proposed based on simplified section kinematics and elastic impact analysis. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural damage in the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the earthquake on May 2012 in Emilia Romagna

This paper addresses the structural damage to the main buildings of the cities of Reggiolo and Carpi after the primary earthquake shocks on May 20th and 29th, 2012, in Emilia Romagna. The damage survey, performed via form-based methods, highlights the different seismic behaviour of several types of buildings, especially those having historical features, and the consequences of the damage in terms of costs. Moreover, an analysis of some failure mechanisms activated in Reggiolo enables the evaluation of the local peak ground acceleration, due to the soil amplification.