A Study of Non-Gravitational Effects of Comet C/1995 O1 HALE–BOPP

The role of non-gravitational forces in the evolution of orbitalmotion of C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp) has been investigated. Inorbital calculations the observational material covering theperiod from April 1993 up to August 2001 was used. To model thenon-gravitational acceleration, observed and theoretical profilesof the H₂O production rates were employed. A set of forcedprecession models of a rotating cometary nucleus consistent withthe observed spin axis orientation was fitted to positionalobservations. The non-gravitational models allowed us to constrainthe mass and radius of the comet. The orbitalevolution of Comet Hale–Bopp was investigated over ±400 k yusing two sets of randomly varied orbital elements wellrepresenting all positional observations in the pure gravitationalcase, as well as in the non-gravitational case. The calculationsshowed that the comet's motion is predictable only over an interval ofa few orbital periods. The statistical conclusions changesignificantly when non-gravitational effects are included in the analysis.     

Rapid migration of heavy metals and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in alluvial sediments,Upper Odra River valley,Poland

The studies presented explore post-depositional changes of zinc, cadmium, lead, manganese and ¹³⁷Cs distribution in alluvial sediments accumulated in the upper Odra River valley in southern Poland. The rate of these changes was estimated by comparing metal and ¹³⁷Cs distributions in four vertical alluvial profiles with a history of river pollution and sediment deposition. The untypical ¹³⁷Cs distribution with peaks in the surface 40–60 cm and lower down, even at a depth of 2.5 m in strata deposited before the beginning of nuclear tests in 1954, indicates rapid post-depositional migration of this isotope from the surface and its retention in lower, less permeable layers. Moreover, the highest concentrations of lead, zinc and cadmium were found at a depth of 4 m in sediments accumulated in the mid-nineteenth century in spite of the growth of industrialization and the pollution of the Odra River with heavy metals until the end of the twentieth century. The post-depositional changes in heavy metals and ¹³⁷Cs are rapid in comparison with the slow element migration usually observed in uninundated soils. This difference is explained by the frequent and easy infiltration of polluted river water into the gravelly and sandy sediments present in the profiles.     

Unusual reaction of diatom assemblage on climate changes during the last millennium: a record from Spitsbergen lake

A sediment core from the Arctic Revvatnet (Hornsund area, SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard) provided data on environmental changes over the last 3100 years. Diatom analysis showing the domination of planktonic Cyclotella forms suggested good edaphic conditions until the middle of the nineteenth century, even during the Little Ice Age. A thermally stratified and relatively stable water column with good mixing allowed small, less heavily silicified Cyclotella sensu lato to develop during this time. The climate warming at the beginning of the twentieth century induced intensification of erosion processes in the catchment of the lake and caused an increase in the sedimentation rate. These processes have caused a lack of thermal stratification by disturbances in the water column and an increase of nutrients, consequently driving changes in the diatom species composition, which became dominated by benthic forms. In this period, almost all planktonic taxa disappeared or abruptly decreased in frequency. Higher temperatures accelerated the melting of nearby glaciers, which caused an increase in the activity of diatoms typical of running waters. Also a few Cladocera species appeared at the first time in the youngest samples.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

Use of the temperature–vegetation dryness index for remote sensing grassland moisture conditions in the vicinity of a lignite open-cast mine

Anthropogenic activities, especially resulting in changes in the water conditions, usually disturb biological and agricultural functions of grasslands, leading to their degradation, often on large areas. Remote sensing observations of such changes in grassland ecosystems evoke a great interest, but they are still a difficult task, especially when performed on industrial and mining areas. This paper presents a new effective method of remote sensing of grassland moisture conditions based on temperature–vegetation dryness index (TVDI) calculated from free Landsat imagery, and employing the TVDI spatial variability estimated from a semivariance analysis. The practical applicability of the method is demonstrated on the example of monitoring of the extensive neighborhood of lignite open-cast mine within a period of a few years. Besides, the developed method was validated at the studied area, using in situ information. Thus, we demonstrated that TVDI may serve as an effective indicator of grassland moisture conditions, even in problematic areas.