Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.     

Subsidence of the Miyako‐Sone submarine carbonate platform,east of Miyako‐jima Island,northwestern Pacific Ocean

Bathymetric mapping and observations of the seafloor using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV, Hyper‐Dolphin 3K) were carried out on the slopes of the Miyako‐Sone submarine platform, east of Miyako‐jima in the Ryukyu Islands, northwestern Pacific Ocean. The bathymetric map indicates that terraces are present at water depths of approximately 140 m, 330 m, 400 m, and 680 m on the northwestern slope of the platform. A number of NW–SE trending lineaments, probably faults, extend perpendicular to the axis of the Ryukyu Island Arc. Two ROV surveys were conducted at water depths ranging from 519 m (on the slope) to 121 m (shallowest part of the platform). The surveys revealed that well‐indurated carbonate rocks are exposed at terrace margins and on upper slopes, and that the lower slopes are covered with modern sediments consisting of unconsolidated, coarse‐sand‐sized bioclastic carbonates. Calcareous nannofossils from the well‐indurated carbonate rocks indicate a Middle–Late Pleistocene age, which suggests that the rocks correlate with the Quaternary reef and fore‐reef deposits of the Ryukyu Group (Ryukyu Limestone) on the Ryukyu Islands. No siliciclastic deposits corresponding to the upper Miocene–lower Pleistocene Shimajiri Group (as exposed on Okinawa‐jima and Miyako‐jima islands) were recovered during the surveys. Coeval well‐indurated carbonate rocks, all of which formed in a similar sedimentary environment, have been downthrown towards the west due to displacements on the western sides of normal faults. Subsidence of the Miyako‐Sone submarine platform was the result of large vertical displacements on such normal faults. The timing of initial subsidence cannot be tightly constrained, but the presence of the youngest limestone at progressively lower levels towards the west suggests the subsidence continued until after 0.265 Ma.     

A smoothed ANOVA model for multivariate ecological regression

Smoothed analysis of variance (SANOVA) has recently been proposed for carrying out disease mapping. The main advantage of this approach is its conceptual simplicity and ease of interpretation. Moreover, it allows us to fix the combination of diseases of particular interest in advance and to make specific inferences about them. In this paper we propose a reformulation of SANOVA in the context of ecological regression studies. This proposal considers the introduction in a non-parametric way of one (or several) covariate(s) into the model, explaining some pre-specified combinations of the outcome variables. In addition, random effects are also incorporated in order to model geographical variation in the combinations of outcome variables not explained by the covariate. Lastly, the model permits the decomposition of the variance in the set of outcome variables into different orthogonal components, quantifying the contribution of every one of them. The proposed model is applied to the geographical analysis of mortality due to malignant stomach neoplasm among women resident in the city of Barcelona (Spain). The available outcome variables are deaths grouped into two time periods, and a socioeconomic deprivation index is included as a covariate. The model has been implemented through INLA, a novel inference tool for Bayesian statistics.     

A study on the seismic behavior of a retrofitted building based on nonlinear static and dynamic analyses

This study describes the seismic performance of an existing five storey reinforced concrete building which represents the typical properties of low-rise non-ductile buildings in Turkey. The effectiveness of shear walls and the steel bracings in retrofitting the building was examined through nonlinear static and dynamic analyses. By using the nonlinear static analysis, retrofitted buildings seismic performances under lateral seismic load were compared with each other. Moreover, the performance points and response levels of the existing and retrofitting cases were determined by way of the capacity-spectrum method described in ATC-40 (1996). For the nonlinear dynamic analysis the records were selected torepresent wide ranges of duration and frequency content. Considering the change in the stiffness and the energy dissipation capacities, the performance of the existing and retrofitted buildings were evaluated in terms of story drifts and damage states. It was found that each earthquake record exhibited its own peculiarities, dictated by frequency content, duration, sequence of peaks and their amplitude. The seismic performance of retrofitted buildings resulted in lower displacements and higher energy dissipation capacity depending mainly on the properties of the ground motions and the retrofitting strategies. Moreover, severe structural damage (irreparable or collapse) was observed for the existing building. However, buildings with retrofit alternatives exhibited lower damage levels changing from no damage to irreparable damage states.     

An operational modal analysis method in frequency and spatial domain

A frequency and spatial domain decomposition method （FSDD） for operational modal analysis （OMA） is presented in this paper, which is an extension of the complex mode indicator function （CMIF） method for experimental modal analysis （EMA）. The theoretical background of the FSDD method is clarified, Singular value decomposition is adopted to separate the signal space from the noise space. Finally, an enhanced power spectrum density （PSD） is proposed to obtain more accurate modal parameters by curve fitting in the frequency domain. Moreover, a simulation case and an application case are used to validate this method.     

Erratum to: Geochemical and environmental magnetic characteristics of high arsenic aquifer sediments from Datong Basin,northern China

Geochemical and environmental magnetic studies were carried out to identify the effect of iron oxyhydroxides on arsenic mobilization in high arsenic aquifer system. Using high arsenic sediment samples from two boreholes, specifically drilled for this study, chemical composition and magnetic properties including magnetic susceptibility, saturation remnant magnetization, and isothermal remnant magnetization were measured. Results of correlation analysis of element contents show that arsenic and iron are closely associated with each other (r ² = 0.40, α = 0.05, n = 21). In contrast, the correlation of phosphorus with iron (r = 0.11, α = 0.05, n = 21) and arsenic (r ² = 0.18, α = 0.05, n = 21) was poor, which might result from competitive adsorption of phosphorus and arsenic on the surface of Fe-oxyhydroxides. The high correlation coefficients between arsenic contents and magnetic parameters suggest that the ferrimagnetic minerals including maghemite and hematite are the dominant carrier of arsenic in aquifer sediments. The results of sequential extraction experiments also revealed the association of arsenic with reducible iron oxides, such as maghemite and hematite in aquifer sediments. Therefore, under reducing conditions, reductive dissolution and desorption of arsenic from Fe-oxyhydroxides into the aqueous phase should be the dominant geochemical processes for its enrichment in groundwater at Datong. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Organic tracers in sediments from the coastal zone of Ras Abu el-Darag,Gulf of Suez

Sediment samples from the coastal zone of the Gulf of Suez contain a variety of organic compounds from anthropogenic and natural sources. A total of 12 surface samples of bottom sediments were collected with an Ekman grab sampler along an off-shore transect south of Ras Abu el-Darag. The samples were extracted with a mixture of dichloromethane and methanol (3:1 v/v) after drying and sieving through 250 μm mesh. The extracts were derivatized and analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry in order to characterize the chemical composition and sources of the organic components. Marine with minor terrestrial biota were the major natural sources of organic tracers and included n-alkanoic acids, sterols and saccharides (5.7–76.7%). Anthropogenic sources, from petroleum related activities, detergent usage for spill cleaning and littering, are indicated by the presence of n-alkanes with carbon preference index ≤1.0, hopanes, steranes, unresolved complex mixture of branched and cyclic hydrocarbons, alkyl nitriles, alkamides and plasticizers. Their total relative concentrations ranged from 23.3 to 97.3% of the total extracts. Petroleum residues from natural seepage may also be part of these hydrocarbons. The levels of anthropogenic inputs decrease from about 94% in coastal zone sediments to about 20% in sediments from the reef front.     

Computerised development control and approval system for City Hall of Kuala Lumpur

This paper will discuss the computerised development control and approval system being developed for the Planning and Development Control Department, City Hall of Kuala Lumpur, with stress on the GIS architecture developed within the system. The prospects and challenges towards implementation of the system are also discussed.     

Seismic response control of a complex structure using multiple MR dampers： experimental investigation

This paper presents an experimental investigation on semi-active seismic response control of a multistory building with a podium structure using multiple magnetorheological (MR) dampers manipulated by a logic control algorithm. The experiments are performed in three phases on a seismic simulator with a slender 12-story building model representing a multi-story building and a relatively stiff 3-story building model typifying a podium structure. The first phase of the investigation is to assess control performance of using three MR dampers to link the 3-story building to the 12-story building, in which seismic responses of the controlled two buildings are compared with those of the two buildings without any connection and with rigid connection. The second phase is to investigate reliability of the semi-active control system and robustness of the logic control algorithm when 2 out of 3 MR dampers fail and when the electricity supply to MR dampers is completely stopped. The last phase is to examine sensitivity of semi-active control performance of two buildings to change in ground excitation. The experimental results show that multiple MR dampers with the logic control algorithm can achieve a significant reduction in seismic responses of both buildings. The proposed semi-active control system is of high reliability and good robustness.