Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal

The aim of this paper is to test the ability of neural network approaches to hindcast the spring standardized precipitation index on a 6‐month time scale (SPI6) in Portugal, based on winter large‐scale climatic indices. For this purpose, the linkage of the spring SPI time series with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated by means of maps of the correlation coefficient for the period from October 1910 to September 2004. The results indicate that the winter NAO is a good predictor for the SPI6 of the spring (SPI6 finishing in April, May and June, SPI6_April, SPI6_May and SPI6_June, respectively) for the northern, central and southern regions of Portugal. The winter SST1 (area of the Mediterranean Sea) must only be considered for the northern region, and the winter SST3 (area of the North Atlantic between Iberia and North America) only for the southern region. Spatial maps of predictive SPI6 for April, May and June were created and validated. The neural models explained more than 81% of the total variance for the SPI6_April and SPI6_May and more than 64% of the total variance for the SPI6_June. Probability maps were also developed considering the values predicted by the neural methods for the spring months and all drought categories (moderate, severe and extreme). These maps indicating the probability of droughts can provide valuable support for the integrated planning and management of water resources throughout Portugal. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Supra‐glacial deposition and flux of catastrophic rock–slope failure debris,south‐central Alaska

The ongoing debate over the effects of global environmental change on Earth's cryosphere calls for detailed knowledge about process rates and their variability in cold environments. In this context, appraisals of the coupling between glacier dynamics and para‐glacial erosion rates in tectonically active mountains remain rare. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap and present an unprecedented regional‐scale inventory of supra‐glacial sediment flux and hillslope erosion rates inferred from an analysis of 123 large (> 0·1 km²) catastrophic bedrock landslides that fell onto glaciers in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska, as documented by satellite images obtained between 1972 to 2008. Assuming these supra‐glacial landslide deposits to be passive strain markers we infer minimum decadal‐scale sediment yields of 190 to 7400 t km^–2 yr^–1 for a given glacier‐surface cross‐section impacted by episodic rock–slope failure. These rates compare to reported fluvial sediment yields in many mountain rivers, but are an order of magnitude below the extreme sediment yields measured at the snouts of Alaskan glaciers, indicating that the bulk of debris discharged derives from en‐glacial, sub‐glacial or ice‐proximal sources. We estimate an average minimum para‐glacial erosion rate by large, episodic rock–slope failures at 0·5–0·7 mm yr^–1 in the Chugach Mountains over a 50‐yr period, with earthquakes likely being responsible for up to 73% of this rate. Though ranking amongst the highest decadal landslide erosion rates for this size of study area worldwide, our inferred rates of hillslope erosion in the Chugach Mountains remain an order of magnitude below the pace of extremely rapid glacial sediment export and glacio‐isostatic surface uplift previously reported from the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mars mesospheric zonal wind around northern spring equinox from infrared heterodyne observations of CO2

We present direct observations of Mars zonal wind velocities around northern spring equinox (L_S = 336°, L_S = 355°, L_S = 42°) during martian year 27 and 29. Data was acquired by means of infrared heterodyne spectroscopy of CO₂ features at 959.3917 cm^?1 (10.4232 μm) and 957.8005 cm^?1 (10.4405 μm) using the Cologne Tuneable Heterodyne Infrared Spectrometer (THIS) at the McMath–Pierce telescope of the National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility on Mauna Kea, Hawaii between 2005 and 2008. Winds were measured on the dayside of Mars with an unprecedented spatial resolution allowing sampling of up to nine independent latitudes over the martian disk. Retrieved wind velocities depend strongly on latitude and season with values ranging from 180 m/s prograde to ?94 m/s retrograde. A comparison of the observational results to predicted values from the Mars Climate Database yield a reasonable agreement between modeling and observation.     

Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment.     

Combined Earth orientation parameters based on homogeneous and continuous VLBI and GPS data

The CONT02 campaign is of great interest for studies combining very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) with other space-geodetic techniques, because of the continuously available VLBI observations over 2 weeks in October 2002 from a homogeneous network. Especially, the combination with the Global Positioning System (GPS) offers a broad spectrum of common parameters. We combined station coordinates, Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) and troposphere parameters consistently in one solution using technique- specific datum-free normal equation systems. In this paper, we focus on the analyses concerning the EOPs, whereas the comparison and combination of the troposphere parameters and station coordinates are covered in a companion paper in Journal of Geodesy. In order to demonstrate the potential of the VLBI and GPS space-geodetic techniques, we chose a sub-daily resolution for polar motion (PM) and universal time (UT). A consequence of this solution set-up is the presence of a one-to-one correlation between the nutation angles and a retrograde diurnal signal in PM. The Bernese GPS Software used for the combination provides a constraining approach to handle this singularity. Simulation studies involving both nutation offsets and rates helped to get a deeper understanding of this singularity. With a rigorous combination of UT1–UTC and length of day (LOD) from VLBI and GPS, we showed that such a combination works very well and does not suffer from the systematic effects present in the GPS-derived LOD values. By means of wavelet analyses and the formal errors of the estimates, we explain this important result. The same holds for the combination of nutation offsets and rates. The local geodetic ties between GPS and VLBI antennas play an essential role within the inter-technique combination. Several studies already revealed non-negligible discrepancies between the terrestrial measurements and the space-geodetic solutions. We demonstrate to what extent these discrepancies propagate into the combined EOP solution.     

Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae) invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model,CLIMEX

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella, a pest of the sweet potato crop, for the present and...     

Hydraulic failure of diaphragm walls: a possible methodology for safety improvement

The paper presents a methodology aimed at reducing—or even avoiding—the risk of heave and uplift failures of reinforced concrete diaphragm walls. The method is based on the simple concept of increasing the drainage capacity of the embedded portion of the retaining walls. The behaviour of a strutted excavation in a cohesionless soil below groundwater is examined by means of two distinct series of numerical analyses, respectively focused on the hydraulic and mechanical behaviour of the retaining system. It is shown that, for some frequent cases, such methodology is capable to improve the safety of the retaining system with respect to both hydraulic and geotechnical limit states.