NO2 total column evolution during the 1989 spring at Antarctica Peninsula

Ground-based visible differential absorption spectrometry during twilight has been used for NO₂ total column observations at the Antarctica Peninsula, Marambio Base (64S, 56W), during the austral spring of 1989 (9 September to 25 November).Results show moderate NO₂ vertical column levels of 1.5 to 2.5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the morning and 2 to 3×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the evening until middle October, highly modulated by planetary wave activity. From that date until the end of the period, a steady increase occurs which is associated with the rising of lower stratosphere temperature as the vortex weakens, reaching values of 5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in late November, with small a.m.-p.m. differences. NO₂ is found to be positively correlated to both total ozone and 50 hPa temperature during the entire spring. However, when analyzing the departures from linear trends, a highly negative correlation has been observed from day 301 onwards.     

Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach

This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe.     

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries: revisiting the assumptions

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.     

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Changes in heat wave characteristics over Extremadura (SW Spain)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human...     

Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.     

Comparing generalized Pareto models fitted to extreme observations: an application to the largest temperatures in Spain

In this paper, a subsampling-based testing procedure for the comparison of the exceedance distributions of stationary time series is introduced. The proposed testing procedure has a number of advantages including the fact that the assumption of stationary can be relaxed for some specific forms of non-stationary and also that the two time series are not required to be independently-generated. For this purpose, a test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and the L ₁-Wasserstein distances between generalized Pareto distributions is introduced and studied in some detail. The performance of the testing procedure is illustrated through a simulation study and with an empirical application to a set of data concerning daily maximum temperature in the 17 autonomous communities of Spain for the period 1990–2004. The autonomous communities were clustered according to the similarities of the fitted generalized Pareto models and then mapped. The cluster analysis reveals a clear distinction between the four northeast communities on the shores of the Bay of Biscay (which are the regions exhibiting milder temperatures) and the remaining regions. A second cluster corresponds to the southern Mediterranean area and the central region which corresponds to the communities with highest temperatures.     

Changes in phytoplankton production and upwelling intensity off A Coruña (NW Spain) for the last 28 years

Ocean Dynamics - The analysis of a 28-year-long (1989–2016) series of monthly measurements of chlorophyll concentrations and primary production rates at a shelf station off A Coruña (NW...