巴基斯坦北Potwar形变区地震的震源机制研究

巴基斯坦北Potwar形变区是西北喜马拉雅褶皱逆冲带前陆区的一部分，绘制了该区的地震活动性图. 与相邻地区比较，该区地震并不活跃，没有显示出与地表地质构造相关的清晰地震活动图象. 做出了4次地震的震源机制解. 结果表明，有3次地震是左旋走滑断层活动，另一次地震是逆断层活动. 地震震源机制解的P轴方向为NW-SE和NE-SW. 现今的构造形变很可能也包括基底的形变.      

Multiple equilibrium states of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current

It has been established that idealized western boundary currents, which encounter a gap in their supporting boundary, will assume one of two dominant steady states: a loop current state and a gap leaping state, and that transitions between these states display hysteresis. However, a question of whether the idealized geometries considered to date apply to the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current (LC) remained. Here, the nonlinear potential vorticity advection-diffusions equations are solved, for Gulf of Mexico topography, using Newton’s method. We demonstrate that, in application to the LC in the Gulf of Mexico, the original conclusions do hold and additionally describe peculiarities of the more realistic steady states. The existence of our numerically calculated steady LC states in the actual Gulf of Mexico are supported through analysis of historical sea surface height data, and implications of our results for LC modeling and forecasting are discussed.

     

Fatigue reliability analysis of deep water rigid marine risers associated with Morison-type wave loading

This work presents a simple and efficient framework for the fatigue reliability assessment of a vertical top-tensioned rigid riser. The fatigue damage response is considered as a narrow-band Gaussian stationary random process with a zero mean for the short-term behavior of a riser. Non-linearity in a response associated with Morison-type wave loading is accounted for by using a factor, which is the ratio of expected damage according to a non-linear probability distribution to the expected damage according to a linear method of analysis. Long-term non-stationary response is obtained by summing up a large number of short-term stationary responses. Uncertainties associated with both the strength and stress parts of the limit state function are quantified by a lognormal distribution. A closed form reliability analysis is carried out, which is based on the limit state function formulated in terms of Miner’s cumulative damage rule. The results thus obtained are compared with the well-documented lognormal format of reliability analysis based on time to fatigue failure. The validity of using the lognormal hazard rate function in predicting the fatigue life is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used as a reliability assessment method. A simple algorithm is used to reduce the uncertainty associated with direct sampling at small probability of failure values and a small number of simulations. Simulation results are compared with closed form solutions. A worked example is included to show the practical riser design problem based on reliability analysis.     

Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan

Fragility functions are derived for low-rise code compliant & non-compliant special moment resisting frames (SMRFs). Non-compliant SMRFs those built in low strength concrete and lacking confining ties in joint panel zones, commonly found in developing countries. Shake table tests were performed on single-storey and two-storey 1:3 reduced scale representative frames to understand the damage mechanism and develop deformation-based damage scale. The non-compliant SMRF experienced column flexure cracking, longitudinal bar-slip in beam and observed with cover concrete spalling from the joint panels. The code compliant SMRF experienced flexure cracks in beam/column, and experienced joint cracking under extreme shaking. Numerical modeling technique is developed for inelastic modeling of reinforced concrete frame with beam bar-slip and joint damageability using SeismoStruct. Natural accelerograms were used to analyze the considered frames through incremental dynamic analyses in SeismoStruct. A probabilistic based approach was used to derive fragility functions for the considered frames. An example case study is presented for damageability evaluation of structures for earthquakes of various return periods (43, 72, 475, 2475 years).     

Silicate‐oxide mineral chemistry of mafic–ultramafic rocks as an indicator of the roots of an island arc: The Chilas Complex,Kohistan (Pakistan)

The Chilas Complex is a major lower crustal component of the Cretaceous Kohistan island arc and one of the largest exposed slices of arc magma chamber in the world. Covering more than 8000 km², it reaches a current tectonic width of around 40 km. It was emplaced at 85 Ma during rifting of the arc soon after the collision of the arc with the Karakoram plate. Over 85% of the Complex comprises homogeneous, olivine‐free gabbronorite and subordinate orthopyroxene–quartz diorite association (MGNA), which contains bodies of up to 30 km² of ultramafic–mafic–anorthositic association (UMAA) rocks. Primary cumulate textures, igneous layering, and sedimentary structures are well preserved in layered parts of the UMAA in spite of pervasive granulite facies metamorphism. Mineral analyses show that the UMAA is characterized by more magnesian and more aluminous pyroxene and more calcic plagioclase than those in the MGNA. High modal abundances of orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (in MGNA), general Mg–Fe–Al spatial variations, and an MFA plot of whole‐rock analyses suggest a calc‐alkaline origin for the Complex. Projection of the pyroxene compositions on the Wo–En–Fs face is akin to those of pyroxenes from island arcs gabbros. The presence of highly calcic plagioclase and hornblende in UMAA is indicative of hydrous parental arc magma. The complex may be a product of two‐stage partial melting of a rising mantle diaper. The MGNA rocks represent the earlier phase melting, whereas the UMAA magma resulted from the melting of the same source depleted by the extraction of the earlier melt phase. Some of the massive peridotites in the UMAA may either be cumulates or represent metasomatized and remobilized upper mantle. The Chilas Complex shows similarities with many other (supra)subduction‐related mafic–ultramafic complexes worldwide.     

The Impact of Geology of Recharge Areas on Groundwater Quality: A Case Study of Zhob River Basin,Pakistan

Groundwater is a major source of water supply for domestic and irrigation uses in semiarid, remote but rapidly developing Kilasaifullah district part of Zhob River Basin, located at Pakistan–Afghanistan Border. Zhob River is among few major rivers of perennial nature in Balochistan, which flows from WSW to ENE and falls in Gomal River, a tributary of Indus River. Keeping in view the important geopolitical position and rapid development of the region, this study is primarily focused on groundwater chemistry for contamination sources as well as agriculture development. Water samples from open and tube wells are analyzed and calculated for electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), turbidity, pH, K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO, Cl^?, NO, SO, PO, sodium percent (Na%), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Kelly's index (KI), and heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Cr, Zn, Pb, and Mn). On the basis of the chemical constituents two zones within the study area are identified and possible causes of the contaminants are pointed out. Two recharge areas were responsible for the different chemical results in groundwater, e.g., zone A was recharged from NNW saline geological formations (Nisai, Khojak, Multana, Bostan formations, and Muslim Bagh ophiolites), which are concentrated with high sodium and chloride. On the other hand Zone B was sourced from SSW from carbonate rich rocks (Alozai, Loralai, Parh formations, and Muslim Bagh ophiolites). The groundwater is classified as C2–S1, C3–S1, C3–S2, C4–S2 on the basis of EC and SAR values which indicate that most of the water of both zones can be used for irrigation safely except the samples plotted in C3–S2 and C4–S2 categories which could be dangerous for soil and crops. Groundwater samples are plotted in good to permissible limits with some samples excellent to good and few samples belong to doubtful category based on sodium percent. Groundwater of zone A is unsuitable for irrigation use due to higher values of KI (more than one) but water of zone B are good for irrigation based on KI. In general, water of both zones is suitable for irrigation but care should be taken during the selection of crops which are sensitive to alkalinity or sodium hazards particularly in zone A.     

Geomorphic response to an active transpressive regime: a case study along the Chaman strike‐slip fault,western Pakistan

The Chaman left‐lateral strike‐slip fault bounds the rigid Indian plate boundary at the western end of the Himalayan‐Tibetan orogen and is marked by contrasting topographic relief. Deformed landforms along the fault provide an excellent record for understanding this actively evolving intra‐continental strike‐slip fault. The geomorphic response of an active transpessional stretch of the Chaman fault was studied using digital elevation model (DEM) data integrated with Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Visible and Near Infrared/Short Wave Infrared (VNIR/SWIR) and images from GeoEye‐1. Geologic and geomorphic mapping helped in reconstructing the Late Quaternary landscape history of this transpessional strand of the Chaman strike‐slip fault and the associated Spinatizha thrust fault in western Pakistan. Topographic analysis of a part of the transpression (the thrust bounded Roghani ridge) revealed northward growth of the Spinatizha fault with the presence of three water gaps and two corresponding wind gaps. Geomorphic indices including stream length‐gradient index, mountain front sinuosity, valley floor width to valley height ratios, and entrenchment of recent alluvial fan deposits were used to define the lateral growth and direction of propagation of the Spinatizha fault. Left‐lateral displacement along Chaman fault and uplift along the Spinatizha fault was defined using topographic analysis of the Roghani ridge and geomorphic mapping of an impressive alluvial fan, the Bostankaul fan. The landforms and structures record slip partitioning along the Indian plate boundary, and account for the convergence resulting from the difference in the Chaman fault azimuth and orientation of the velocity vector of the Indian plate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year streamflow datasets

ABSTRACT

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor I. Nalbantis