Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia

Ethiopia??s agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households?? food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generate a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on this index, households are classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences are assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, and participate in local savings groups. Using the food security index as the dependent variable, we use a fixed effects instrumental variable regression model to identify determinants of households?? food security over time and find that rainfall variability is an important factor. Moreover, household size, participation in local savings groups, and livestock ownership positively affect food security. Results from multinomial logistic regression model complement the fixed effects instrumental variable regression results by showing that the level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability. The results highlight the need for efficient risk reduction and mitigation programs to improve risk exposure and coping ability of rural households. Careful promotion of investment in infrastructure to support irrigation and water resources development is one aspect worth considering.     

Geochronology of Middle and Upper Pleistocene Loess Sections in Hungary

The application of both thermoluminescence and infrared stimulated luminescence dating to the extensively studied “classical” Hungarian loess/paleosol sequences from Basaharc, Mende, and Paks provides a reliable chronological framework and climatostratigraphic reconstruction for the last interglacial/glacial cycle. Based on this combined luminescence dating study a new chronology is proposed for the “Young Loess” in Hungary. Luminescence dating suggests that the loess below the MF2 horizon formed during the penultimate glaciation. The MF1 horizon probably formed during an interstade within oxygen isotope stage 3. For the youngest loess, overlying MF1, a very high accumulation rate was determined. Large time gaps occur above MF2 and MF1, indicating that most of the record of the last glaciation is missing in the standard sections at Basaharc, Mende, and Paks. Either large discontinuities or a very low accumulation rate occurred in all three type sections during the soil-forming periods. High-resolution studies of climatic proxies using this combined luminescence dating approach provide a reliable chronological framework for loess and loess derivatives of the last glacial cycle in Hungary, although a precise and complete chronostratigraphic reconstruction cannot be achieved from the incomplete records found at these sites.     

Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe

This paper presents a continuous version of the model of distribution dynamics to analyse the transition dynamics and implied long-run behaviour of the EU-27 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995–2003. It departs from previous research in two respects: first, by introducing kernel estimation and three-dimensional stacked conditional density plots as well as highest density regions plots for the visualisation of the transition function, based on Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996), and second, by combining Getis’ spatial filtering view with kernel estimation to explicitly account for the spatial dimension of the growth process. The results of the analysis indicate a very slow catching-up of the poorest regions with the richer ones, a process of shifting away of a small group of very rich regions, and highlight the importance of geography in understanding regional income distribution dynamics.

On the possibility of earth-type habitable planets around 47 UMa

We investigate whether Earth-type habitable planets can in principle exist in the planetary system of 47 UMa. The system of 47 UMa consists of two Jupiter-size planets beyond the outer edge of the stellar habitable zone, and thus resembles our own Solar System most closely compared to all exosolar planetary systems discovered so far. Our study of habitability deliberately follows an Earth-based view according to the concept of Franck and colleagues, which assumes the long-term possibility of photosynthetic biomass production under geodynamic conditions. Consequently, a broad variety of climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamical processes involved in the generation of photosynthesis-driven life conditions is taken into account. The stellar luminosity and the age of the star/planet system are of fundamental importance for planetary habitability. Our study considers different types of planetary continental growth models and takes into account a careful assessment of the stellar parameters. In the event of successful formation and orbital stability, two subjects of intense research, we find that Earth-type habitable planets around 47 UMa are in principle possible! The likelihood of those planets is increased if assumed that 47 UMa is relatively young (?6 Gyr) and has a relatively small stellar luminosity as permitted by the observational range of those parameters.     

Tourism resources and their development in Maldive Islands

Maldive Islands are characterized by a unique coral nature and thus they posses unique tourism resources though in a one-sided way, namely in the submarine and littoral environment of the islands, lagoons and reefs, associated with the year-round tropical climate. Therefore, not only divers and snorklers enjoy the profuse underwater resources, but also beach tourists are attracted by the nature of the beaches and the climatic conditions as well. This environment really guarantees relaxation and recreation. Tourism in Maldives which was introduced in 1972 only, has successfully developed so far. Proof is given by the rapidly growing number of tourists and tourist resorts (islands) over the past 10 year period. On the European market, Maldives today rank among the most attractive tourist destinations in the tropics. Maldives offer large natural resources for tourism to be further developed in the future. The sensitive environment does however call for most considerate measures.     

Aromatic ketones concentrated from Baltic Sea water

Aromatic ketones were concentrated from filtered Baltic Sea water by liquid—solid adsorption. After wet-chemical separation from acidic and basic components, the neutral fraction was column chromatographed to yield sub-fractions of increasing polarity. A subfraction eluted from silica gel with cyclopentane/diethyl ether contained a number of compounds which were identified by GC and GC—MS techniques as fluorenone, anthraquinone, benzanthrone, and benzene derivatives carrying an oxo group in the α-position relative to the aromatic ring. Formation and abiotic chemical reactions of these compounds in seawater are discussed.     

Plio-/Pleistocene climate modeling based on oxygen isotope time series from deep-sea sediment cores: The Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm and chaotic climate systems

The question whether paleoclimatic systems are governed by a small number of significant variables (low-dimensional systems) is of importance for modeling such systems. As indicators for global Plio-/Pleistocene climate variability, four marine, sedimentary oxygen isotope time series are analyzed with regard to their dimensionality using a modified Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. An artificial, low-dimensional chaotic time series (Hénon map) is included for the validation of the method. In order to extract equidistant data the raw data are interpolated with the Akima-subspline method since this method minimizes the change in variance due to the interpolation. The nonlinear least-squares Gauss-Marquardt regression method is used instead of the linear least-squares fit to the logarithmically transformed points, in order to acquire an unbiased estimate of the correlation dimension. The dependences of the estimated correlation dimension on the embedding dimension do not indicate a small number (i.e., less than 5) of influencing variables on the investigated paleoclimatic system, whereas the low dimension for the Hénon map is verified (dimension 1.22–1.28). Because of the limited amount of data in the oxygen isotope records, dimensions greater than about 5 cannot be examined.     

Segmented seismicity of the M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz Mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

The M _w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry and ongoing deformation processes using modern seismological methods. A joint inversion for hypocentres and a velocity model plus a surface-wave group dispersion curve analysis were used to obtain an adapted velocity model, customised for mid- and long-period waveform modelling. Based on the new velocity model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M _w ?≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking fault planes. The mainshock ruptured a 28° south-dipping area of 24 × 21 km along a north-easterly direction. The rupture plane of the mainshock does not coincide with the aftershock distribution, neither in map view nor with respect to depth. The considered aftershocks form two main clusters. The eastern cluster is associated with the mainshock. The western cluster does not appear to be connected with the rupture plane of the mainshock but, instead, indicates a second activated fault plane dipping at 85° towards the north.