A Royalty Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Louisiana receives royalty revenue when minerals are produced on state-owned lands and water bottoms, federal properties within the state, and offshore fields underlying federal and state jurisdiction within 3–6 nautical miles from the coastline. Royalty revenue on oil and gas production has averaged $465 million per year and has contributed 3–7% of the state general revenue over the past decade. The purpose of this article is to develop a royalty revenue forecast model to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. Producing fields are evaluated within a probabilistic framework to capture the uncertainty associated with future capital outlays and operational changes, and a discovery model is used to generate production from fields expected to be discovered in the future. The forecasts are combined with commodity price scenarios and royalty rate assumptions to generate a royalty revenue outlook for the state. We estimate that cumulative royalty revenue during 2012–2017 will range from $704 million to $1,408 million for oil production and from $286 million to $1,145 million for gas production for commodity prices of 60–120 $/bbl and 2–8 $/Mcf. At $80/bbl and $4/Mcf, cumulative royalty receipts from 2012 to 2017 are estimated at $1,510 million.     

Three episodes of jet activity in the Fanaroff–Riley type II radio galaxy B0925+420

We present Very Large Array images of a 'double–double radio galaxy', a class of objects in which two pairs of lobes are aligned either side of the nucleus. In this object, B0 925+420, we discover a third pair of lobes, close to the core and again in alignment with the other lobes. This first-known 'triple–double' object strongly increases the likelihood that these lobes represent multiple episodes of jet activity, as opposed to knots in an underlying jet. We model the lobes in terms of their dynamical evolution. We find that the inner pair of lobes are consistent with the outer pair having been displaced buoyantly by the ambient medium. The middle pair of lobes are more problematic – to the extent where an alternative model interpreting the middle and inner 'lobes' as additional bow shocks within the outer lobes may be more appropriate – and we discuss the implications of this on our understanding of the density of the ambient medium.     

Mapping and monitoring of urban landuse of Hisar Town,Haryana using remote sensing techniques

Aerial photographs for the year 1965 and 1975 and Landsat TM (FCC) 1986 data on 1:50,000 scale were used to map and monitor the pattern of growth and development of Hisar Town during the last 20 years. The different landuse categories identified are residential, commercial, industrial, recreational, vacant lands etc. The original shape of the town was nucleated one, but presently it is star-shaped, which is due to extension of the urban centre along the radiating roads. It has mainly elongated itself along the Delhi and Rajgarh roads. The presence of Government Livestock Farm (GLF), Equine Breeding Farm and HAU Farm towards North-west of the town has completely checked its growth on these sides. The total residential-cum-commercial area has nearly doubled during 1965–1975 and trebled by 1986. The change in net area under different types of urban land-use categories, described above has also been calculated. Degraded scrub lands and sandy wasteland on the fringes of the town have been identified where further development can be planned to avoid encroachment on good agricultural lands. Recommendations have been given for future urban planning of the town.     

Integrating Fire Behavior and Pedestrian Mobility Models to Assess Potential Risk to Humans from Wildfires Within the U.S.–Mexico Border Zone∗

Wildfires create a risk to pedestrians traveling through rural areas, because they might not be aware of the presence of a wildfire or its direction and rate of spread until is too late to successfully evacuate. In wildland areas of southern San Diego County, immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border and border security agents are particularly at risk to wildfires. The objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis and associated tools for examining the combined behavior of wildfires and pedestrian mobility to assess the potential threat of fire to pedestrians in wildland areas. Outputs from a geographic information system (GIS) overlay model for determining potentially dangerous fire zones, the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, and a model of pedestrian mobility in wildland areas were combined to generate wildfire risk to pedestrian maps. The key technical contributions of the study are the development and testing of the pedestrian mobility model and the framework and logic for integrating the results of three GIS-based models. The applied geography contribution is the testing of two scenarios of high risk from wildfires to pedestrians within the U.S.–Mexico border zone of San Diego County, California.

The study results show that the travel times calculated by the pedestrian mobility model appear to be realistic and are affected by the terrain and vegetation characteristics of a study site, whereas the evacuation trigger buffers (ETBs) from WUIVAC are mostly influenced by the wind speed and direction parameters of the FlamMap fire spread model. A moderate fire danger to pedestrians in the most remote wildland locations of the study area is determined. The scenario test results suggest that if a wildfire occurs within 2 km (extreme southwesterly winds) or 6 km (extreme northeasterly wind) of pedestrians in the worst case location within the San Diego border region they would likely not have a sufficient amount of time to reach a nearby safety zone.     

iShocks: X-ray binary jets with an internal shocks model

In the following paper, we present an internal shocks model, iShocks, for simulating a variety of relativistic jet scenarios; these scenarios can range from a single ejection event to an almost continuous jet, and are highly user configurable. Although the primary focus in the following paper is black hole X-ray binary jets, the model is scale and source independent and could be used for supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei or other flows such as jets from neutron stars. Discrete packets of plasma (or 'shells') are used to simulate the jet volume. A two-shell collision gives rise to an internal shock, which acts as an electron re-energization mechanism. Using a pseudo-random distribution of the shell properties, the results show how for the first time it is possible to reproduce a flat/inverted spectrum (associated with compact radio jets) in a conical jet whilst taking the adiabatic energy losses into account. Previous models have shown that electron re-acceleration is essential in order to obtain a flat spectrum from an adiabatic conical jet: multiple internal shocks prove to be efficient in providing this re-energization. We also show how the high-frequency turnover/break in the spectrum is correlated with the jet power,  ν _b ∝ L ^∼0.6_W  , and the flat-spectrum synchrotron flux is correlated with the total jet power,   F _ν∝ L ^∼1.4_W  . Both the correlations are in agreement with previous analytical predictions.     

On effects of trawling, benthos and sampling design

The evidence for the wider effects of fishing on the marine ecosystem demands that we incorporate these considerations into our management of human activities. The consequences of the direct physical disturbance of the seabed caused by towed bottom-fishing gear have been studied extensively with over 100 manipulations reported in the peer-reviewed literature. The outcome of these studies varies according to the gear used and the habitat in which it was deployed. This variability in the response of different benthic systems concurs with established theoretical models of the response of community metrics to disturbance. Despite this powerful evidence, a recent FAO report wrongly concludes that the variability in the reported responses to fishing disturbance mean that no firm conclusion as to the effects of fishing disturbance can be made. This thesis is further supported (incorrectly) by the supposition that current benthic sampling methodologies are inadequate to demonstrate the effects of fishing disturbance on benthic systems. The present article addresses these two erroneous conclusions which may confuse non-experts and in particular policy-makers.     

DEM Simulation of Direct Shear: 2. Grain Boundary and Mineral Grain Strength Component Influence on Shear Rupture

The influence of mineral grain and grain boundary strength is investigated using a calibrated intact (non-jointed) brittle rock specimen subjected to direct shear with a particle-based distinct element method and its embedded grain-based method. The adopted numerical approach allows one to independently control the grain boundary and mineral grain strength. The investigation reveals that, in direct shear, the normal stress (σ _n) applied to a rock specimen relative to its uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) determines the resulting rupture mechanism, the ultimate rupture zone geometry, and thus its shear stress versus horizontal displacement response. This allows one to develop a rupture matrix based on this controlling parameter (i.e., σ _n/UCS). Mineral grain strength reductions result in the lowering of the apparent cohesion intercept of the peak linear Coulomb strength envelope, while grain boundary strength reductions change the peak linear Coulomb strength envelope to a bi-linear or curved shape. The impact of grain boundary strength is only relevant at σ _n/UCS ratios <0.17 where tensile and dilatant rupture mechanisms dominate. Once shear rupture begins to be the dominant rupture mechanism in a brittle rock (i.e., at σ _n/UCS ratios >0.17), the influence of weakened grain boundaries is minimized and strength is controlled by that of the mineral grains.     

Atmospheric C variations derived from tree rings during the early Younger Dryas

Atmospheric radiocarbon variations over the Younger Dryas interval, from 13,000 to 11,600 cal yr BP, are of immense scientific interest because they reveal crucial information about the linkages between climate, ocean circulation and the carbon cycle. However, no direct and reliable atmospheric ¹⁴C records based on tree rings for the entire Younger Dryas have been available. In this paper, we present (1) high-precision ¹⁴C measurements on the extension of absolute tree-ring chronology from 12,400 to 12,560 cal yr BP and (2) high-precision, high-resolution atmospheric ¹⁴C record derived from a 617-yr-long tree-ring chronology of Huon pine from Tasmania, Australia, spanning the early Younger Dryas. The new tree-ring ¹⁴C records bridge the current gap in European tree-ring radiocarbon chronologies during the early Younger Dryas, linking the floating Lateglacial Pine record to the absolute tree-ring timescale. A continuous and reliable atmospheric ¹⁴C record for the past 14,000 cal yr BP including the Younger Dryas is now available. The new records indicate that the abrupt rise in atmospheric Δ¹⁴C associated with the Younger Dryas onset occurs at 12,760 cal yr BP, 240 yrs later than that recorded in Cariaco varves, with a smaller magnitude of 40‰ followed by several centennial Δ¹⁴C variations of 20–25‰. Comparing the tree-ring Δ¹⁴C to marine-derived Δ¹⁴C and modelled Δ¹⁴C based on ice-core ¹⁰Be fluxes, we conclude that changes in ocean circulation were mainly responsible for the Younger Dryas onset, while a combination of changes in ocean circulation and ¹⁴C production rate were responsible for atmospheric Δ¹⁴C variations for the remainder of the Younger Dryas.