The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Charcoal and fossil wood from palaeosols,sediments and artificial structures indicating Late Holocene woodland decline in southern Tibet (China)

Charcoal and fossil wood taken from palaeosols, sediments and artificial structures were analysed in order to evaluate the regional pedoanthracological potential and to obtain information on Holocene environmental changes, particularly on possible past tree occurrences in southern Tibet. This research was initiated by the question to what extent this area is influenced by past human impact. Even recent evaluations have perceived the present treeless desertic environment of southern Tibet as natural, and the previous Holocene palaeoenvironmental changes detected were predominantly interpreted to be climate-determined. The material analysed – comprising a total of 53 botanical spectra and 55 radiocarbon datings from 46 sampling sites (c. 3500–4700 m a.s.l.) – represents the largest systematically obtained data set of charcoal available from Tibet so far. 27 taxa were determined comprising trees, (dwarf-) shrubs and herbs as well as grasses. The predominant tree taxa were Juniperus, Hippophae, Salix and Betula. According to their present-day occurrence in the region, the genera Juniperus and Hippophae can be explicitly attributed to tree species. Further, less frequently detected tree taxa were Populus, Pinus, Quercus, Taxus and Pseudotsuga. Charcoal of Juniperus mainly occurred on southern exposures, whereas Betula was associated with northern exposures. In contrast, the (partly) phreatophytic taxa Hippophae and Salix showed no prevalent orientation. The distribution of radiocarbon ages on charcoal revealed a discontinuous record of burning events cumulating in the Late Holocene (c. 5700–0 cal BP). For southern Tibet, these results indicated a Late Holocene vegetation change from woodlands to the present desertic pastures. As agrarian economies in southern and south-eastern Tibet date back to c. 3700 and 5700 cal BP, respectively, and the present-day climate is suitable for tree growth up to c. 4600 m a.s.l., we concluded that the Late Holocene loss or thinning out of woodlands had been primarily caused by humans.     

Sharks caught in the KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme,South Africa. 14. The smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena (Linnaeus)

The current study provides long-term catch-rate, biological and feeding data for smooth hammerhead sharks, Sphyrna zygaena, caught in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme. In total, 2 512 S. zygaena were caught in net installations between 1978 and 2014, and 72 S. zygaena were caught on drumlines between 2007 and 2014. There was no significant log-linear year trend in the net catch rate over time (slope = 0.0054, t = 1.808, p = 0.07). However, there was a significant temporal increase in mean size of the captured sharks (slope = 0.0012, t = 3.502, p < 0.001). A quasi-Poisson generalised additive mixed model showed that increasing latitude, winter months, colder sea temperatures and the deployment of drumlines all had a significant positive effect on the catch rate of sharks in nets. The size frequency of the catch was unimodal, with significantly more females caught in the nets and more males on the drumlines. The majority (93.1%) of all sharks caught were immature and measured between 80 and 120 cm precaudal length. Teleosts and cephalopods dominated the sharks’ diet in terms of all dietary indices. The prey species consumed indicate that immature S. zygaena are feeding primarily within the pelagic zone of shallow coastal habitats.     

Heating rate profiles in galaxy clusters

In recent years, evidence has accumulated suggesting that the gas in galaxy clusters is heated by non-gravitational processes. Here, we calculate the heating rates required to maintain a physically motivated mass flow rate, in a sample of seven galaxy clusters. We employ the spectroscopic mass deposition rates as an observational input along with temperature and density data for each cluster. On energetic grounds, we find that thermal conduction could provide the necessary heating for A2199, Perseus, A1795 and A478. However, the suppression factor of the classical Spitzer value is a different function of radius for each cluster. Based on the observations of plasma bubbles, we also calculate the duty cycles for each active galactic nucleus (AGN), in the absence of thermal conduction, which can provide the required energy input. With the exception of Hydra-A, it appears that each of the other AGNs in our sample requires duty cycles of roughly 10⁶–10⁷ yr to provide their steady-state heating requirements. If these duty cycles are unrealistic, this may imply that many galaxy clusters must be heated by very powerful Hydra-A type events interspersed between more frequent smaller scale outbursts. The suppression factors for the thermal conductivity required for combined heating by AGN and thermal conduction are generally acceptable. However, these suppression factors still require 'fine-tuning' of the thermal conductivity as a function of radius. As a consequence of this work, we present the AGN duty cycle as a cooling flow diagnostic.     

Dust Detection by the Wave Instrument on STEREO: Nanoparticles Picked up by the Solar Wind?

Solar Physics - The STEREO wave instrument (S/WAVES) has detected a very large number of intense voltage pulses. We suggest that these events are produced by impact ionisation of nanoparticles...