The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

A global classification of river regimes

Global analysis of streamflow regimes is a neglected aspect of comparative hydrology. The regionalization of river regimes provides a useful tool for extrapolation of hydrological variables and for the identification of natural flow regimes where intensive river regulation has occurred. Previous studies at the global scale have used climatic characteristics to define regime types and the boundaries of climatic zones for extrapolation. These procedures have been made necessary by the lack of a suitable data set of stream flows with a global coverage. Such a data set has now been assembled for the first time and is used here to produce a classification of seasonal flow regimes based on a cluster analysis of the monthly mean flows expressed as percentages of the mean annual flow. Clustering was carried out using the within-group average method with cosine similarity measure after removing streams with no significant seasonal fluctuations. A set of algorithms in the form of a decision tree are presented. They can be used to place any stream into this classification and the process can be halted at any desired level of subdivision up to the 15-group level selected for global mapping in this paper. A preliminary world map of regime types is presented and is the first to be drawn on the basis of streamflow characteristics alone.     

MHD Models and Laboratory Experiments of Jets

Jet research has long relied upon a combination of analytical, observational and numerical studies to elucidate the complex phenomena involved. One element missing from these studies (which other physical sciences utilize) is the controlled experimental investigation of such systems. With the advent of high-power lasers and fast Z-pinch machines it is now possible to experimentally studysimilar systems in a laboratory setting. Such investigations can contribute in two useful ways. They can be used for comparison with numerical simulations as a means to validate simulation codes. More importantly, however, such investigations can also be used to complement other jet research, leading to fundamentally new knowledge. In the first part of this article, we analyze the evolution of magnetized wide-angle winds in a collapsing environment. We track the ambient and wind mass separately and describe a physical mechanism by which an ionized central wind can entrain the ambient gas giving rise to internal shells of molecular material on short time scales. The formation of internal shells in molecular outflows has been found to be an important ingredient in describing the observations of convex spurs in P-V diagrams (Hubble wedges in M-V diagrams).In the second part, we present astrophysically relevant experiments in which supersonic jets are created using a conical wire array Z-pinch. The conically convergent flow generates a standing shock around the axis which collimates the flow into a Mach ～ 30 jet. The jet formation process is closely related to the work of Cantó et al. (1988) for hydrodynamic jet collimation. The influence of radiative cooling on collimation and stability is studied by varying the wire material (Al, Fe, and W).     

Calculation of infrared and Raman vibration modes of magnesite at high pressure by density-functional perturbation theory and comparison with experiments

We predict the IR-TO, IR-LO and Raman modes (wave numbers and intensities) of magnesite (MgCO₃) up to 50 GPa, at T = 0 K, using the density-functional perturbation theory up to a third order perturbation, under the harmonic assumption. The predicted IR-TO and Raman mode wave numbers, the mode Grüneisen parameters and the Davydov splittings are systematically compared with experimental data for all modes up to the pressures of 10–30 GPa and for some modes up to 50 GPa. Existing experiments allow extending this comparison only to IR-LO wave numbers of the E _u (ν₃) asymmetric-stretch mode, confirming the odd experimental behavior of this mode at very high pressures. Predicted IR-TO, IR-LO and Raman intensities up to 50 GPa are just tabulated, but data are missing for their comparison with precise experiments. However, the generally good agreement observed between numerical results and experimental data, when their comparison is possible, suggests that first-principles methods are a major help to predict the entire spectrum up to very high pressures.     

An evaluation of solar radiation pressure strategies for the GPS constellation

The subtle effects of different Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite force models are becoming apparent now that mature processing strategies are reaching new levels of accuracy and precision. For this paper, we tested several approaches to solar radiation pressure (SRP) modeling that are commonly used by International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centers. These include the GPS Solar Pressure Model (GSPM; Bar-Sever and Kuang in The Interplanetary Network Progress Report 42-160, 2005) and variants of the so-called DYB model (Springer et al. in Adv Space Res 23:673–676, 1999). Our results show that currently observed differences between GPS orbit solutions from the various IGS analysis centers are in large part explained by differences between their respective approaches to modeling SRP. DYB-based strategies typically generate orbit solutions that have the smallest differences with respect to the IGS final combined solution, largely because the DYB approach is most commonly used by the contributing analysis centers. However, various internal and external metrics, including ambiguity resolution statistics and satellite laser ranging observations, support continued use of the GSPM-based approach for precise orbit determination of the GPS constellation, at least when using the GIPSY-OASIS software.     

Low-frequency variability in atmospheric middle latitudes

A short review of research trends in the study of low-frequency mid-latitude variations is presented. Theoretical developments have been concentrated upon with the major themes of multiple equilibria, flow stability and eddy-mean flow interaction reflecting the authors main interests. A new interpretation of the role of transient eddies in maintaining atmospheric blocking is also suggested in which eddy potential vorticity fluxes are considered to mediate a downstream transition between a zonal and a steady free Rossby wave flow. This treatment avoids emphasizing local balances and fluxes by the transients which are often entirely or partially reversible. The consequences of this interpretation are explored in the barotropic model of blocking first presented by Shutts (1983). This interpretation is used to suggest conditions in which the jetstream may be unlikely to undergo transition to a blocked weather regime.     

On the use of horizontal acoustic Doppler profilers for continuous bed shear stress monitoring

Continuous monitoring of bed shear stress in large river systems may serve to better estimate alluvial sediment transport to the coastal ocean.Here we explore the possibility of using a horizontally deployed acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP) to monitor bed shear stress,applying a prescribed boundary layer model,previously used for discharge estimation.The model parameters include the local roughness length and a dip correction factor to account for sidewall effects.Both these parameters depend on river stage and on the position in the cross-section, and were estimated from shipborne ADCP data.We applied the calibrated boundary layer model to obtain bed shear stress estimates over the measuring range of the HADCP.To validate the results,co-located coupled ADCPs were used to infer bed shear stress,both from Reynolds stress profiles and from mean velocity profiles. From HADCP data collected over a period of 1.5 years,a time series of width profiles of bed shear stress was obtained for a tidal reach of the Mahakam River,East Kalimantan,Indonesia.A smaller dataset covering 25 hours was used for comparison with results from the coupled ADCPs.The bed shear stress estimates derived from Reynolds stress profiles appeared to be strongly affected by local effects causing upflow and downflow,which are not included in the boundary layer model used to derive bed shear stress with the horizontal ADCP.Bed shear stresses from the coupled ADCP are representative of a much more localized flow,while those derived with the horizontal ADCP resemble the net effect of the flow over larger scales.Bed shear stresses obtained from mean velocity profiles from the coupled ADCPs show a good agreement between the two methods,and highlight the robustness of the method to uncertainty in the estimates of the roughness length.     

Monitoring Measurements from the Jason-1 Microwave Radiometer and Independent Validation with GPS

The Jason-1 Microwave Radiometer (JMR) provides measurements of the wet troposphere content to correct the altimetric range measurement for the associated path delay. Various techniques are used to monitor the JMR wet troposphere path delays, with measurements of zenith troposphere content from terrestrial GPS sites used as an independent verification technique. Results indicate that an unexpected offset of approximately +4.1 ± 1.2 mm (drier) emerged in the JMR measurements of wet path delay between cycles 28-32 of the Jason-1 mission, and that the measurements may be drifting at a rate of approximately -0.5 mm/year. These anomalies are shown to be caused by a -0.7 K offset in 23.8 GHz brightness temperatures between cycles 28-32, and a 0.16 ± 0.04 and -0.45 ± 0.08 K/year drift in the 18.7 and 34.0 GHz brightness temperatures, respectively. Intercomparison of the 3-Hz JMR brightness temperature measurements show that they have been drifting with respect to each other, and that a dependence on yaw-steering regime is present in these measurements. An offset of 0.5 m/s between cycles 28-32 and a drift of approximately 0.5 m/s/year in the JMR wind speed measurements is also associated with these anomalies in the 1-Hz brightness temperatures. These errors in JMR wind speeds presently have a negligible impact on the retrieved JMR path delays.