Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

Development of storm hyetographs for flood forecasting in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This paper presents the derivation of the design storm hyetograph patterns for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on real rainfall events from meteorological stations distributed throughout the Kingdom. Two thousand twenty-seven rainfall storms for a 20–28-year period were collected and analyzed covering 13 regions of the Kingdom. Four distinct dimensionless rainfall hyetograph patterns have been obtained over the Kingdom, while two patterns have been obtained for each individual region because of the lack of data for long-duration storms in individual regions. The resulting dimensionless rainfall patterns for each region can be used to develop storm hyetographs for any design duration, total rainfall depth and return period. It has been shown that the developed storm hyetographs have different features from other storm patterns that are commonly used in arid zones. The study recommends using these curves for the design of hydraulic structures in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and regions alike.     

Experimental determination of photostability and fluorescence‐based detection of PAHs on the Martian surface

Abstract– Even in the absence of any biosphere on Mars, organic molecules, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), are expected on its surface due to delivery by comets and meteorites of extraterrestrial organics synthesized by astrochemistry, or perhaps in situ synthesis in ancient prebiotic chemistry. Any organic compounds exposed to the unfiltered solar ultraviolet spectrum or oxidizing surface conditions would have been readily destroyed, but discoverable caches of Martian organics may remain shielded in the subsurface or within surface rocks. We have studied the stability of three representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a Mars chamber, emulating the ultraviolet spectrum of unfiltered sunlight under temperature and pressure conditions of the Martian surface. Fluorescence spectroscopy is used as a sensitive indicator of remaining PAH concentration for laboratory quantification of molecular degradation rates once exposed on the Martian surface. Fluorescence‐based instrumentation has also been proposed as an effective surveying method for prebiotic organics on the Martian surface. We find the representative PAHs, anthracene, pyrene, and perylene, to have persistence half‐lives once exposed on the Martian surface of between 25 and 60 h of noontime summer UV irradiation, as measured by fluorescence at their peak excitation wavelength. This equates to between 4 and 9.6 sols when the diurnal cycle of UV light intensity on the Martian surface is taken into account, giving a substantial window of opportunity for detection of organic fluorescence before photodegradation. This study thus supports the use of fluorescence‐based instrumentation for surveying recently exposed material (such as from cores or drill tailings) for native Martian organic molecules in rover missions.     

Near-infrared spectroscopy of dark asteroids

Near-infrared (J, H and K bands) spectra of nine dark asteroids (chosen among a sample of supposed primitive objects between C and D classes) have been obtained at the Mauna Kea Observatory (Hawaii) with the 2.2-m telescope using KSPEC as spectrograph. The aim of this work was to search for evidence of the presence of organic materials in these objects as found in other planetary bodies as 5145 Pholus, and in some cometary nuclei. A careful analysis of the data has revealed flat or slightly redder spectra than the solar one for all observed asteroids. No evidence of distinct absorption features was found.     

Influence of Thermal Effects on the Wind Field Within the Urban Environment

Micrometeorological conditions in the vicinity of urban buildings strongly influence the requirements that are imposed on building heating and cooling. The goal of the present study, carried out within the Advance Tools for Rational Energy Use towards Sustainability (ATREUS) European research network, is the evaluation of the wind field around buildings with walls heated by solar radiation. Two computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes were validated against extensive wind-tunnel observations to assess the influence of thermal effects on model performance. The code selected from this validation was used to simulate the wind and temperature fields for a summer day in a specific region of the city of Lisbon. For this study, the meteorological data produced by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) were used as boundary conditions for a CFD code, which was further applied to analyze the effects of local roughness elements and thermodynamic conditions on the air flow around buildings. The CFD modelling can also provide the inflow parameters for a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, used to evaluate the building energy budgets and to predict performance of the air-conditioning system. The main finding of the present three-dimensional analyses is that thermal forcing associated with the heating of buildings can significantly modify local properties of the air flow.     

Air flow analysis in the upper Río Negro Valley (Argentina)

The so called Upper Río Negro Valley in Argentina is one of the most important fruit and vegetable production regions of the country. It comprises the lower valleys of the Limay and Neuquén rivers and the upper Negro river valley. Out of the 41,671 cultivated hectares, 84.6% are cultivated with fruit trees, especially apple, pear and stone fruit trees. Late frosts occurring when trees are sensitive to low temperatures have a significant impact on the regional production. This study presents an analysis of air flow characteristics in the Upper Río Negro Valley and its relationship with ambient air flow. To such effect, observations made when synoptic-scale weather patterns were favorable for radiative frosts (light wind and clear sky) or nocturnal temperature inversion in the lower layer were used. In the Negro river valley, both wind channeling and downward horizontal momentum transport from ambient wind were observed; in nighttime, very light wind events occurred, possibly associated with drainage winds from the nearby higher levels of the barda. In the Neuquén river valley, the prevailing effect appeared to be forced channeling, consistent with the results obtained in valleys where the synoptic scale wind crossed the axis of the valley. In the Limay river valley, the flow was observed to blow parallel to the longitudinal valley axis, possibly influenced by pressure gradient and forced channeling.     

A petrologic and trace element study of Dar al Gani 476 and Dar al Gani 489: Twin meteorites with affinities to basaltic and lherzolitic shergottites

Abstract— We present the results of a combined mineralogic‐petrologic and ion microprobe study of two martian meteorites recently recovered in the Lybian Sahara, Dar al Gani 476 (DaG 476) and Dar al Gani 489 (DaG 489). Having resided in a hot desert environment for an extended time, DaG 476 and DaG 489 were subjected to terrestrial weathering that significantly altered their chemical composition. In particular, analyses of some of the silicates show light rare earth element (LREE)‐enrichment resulting from terrestrial alteration. In situ measurement of trace element abundances in minerals allows us to identify areas unaffected by this contamination and, thereby, to infer the petrogenesis of these meteorites. No significant compositional differences between DaG 476 and DaG 489 were found, supporting the hypothesis that they belong to the same fall. These meteorites have characteristics in common with both basaltic and lherzolitic shergottites, possibly suggesting spatial and petrogenetic associations of these two types of lithologies on Mars. However, the compositions of Fe‐Ti oxides and the size of Eu anomalies in the earliest‐formed pyroxenes indicate that the two Saharan meteorites probably experienced more reducing crystallization conditions than other shergottites (with the exception of Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 94201). As is the case for other shergottites, trace element microdistributions in minerals of the DaG martian meteorites indicate that closed‐system crystal fractionation from a LREE‐depleted parent magma dominated their crystallization history. Furthermore, rare earth element abundances in the orthopyroxene megacrysts are consistent with their origin as xenocrysts rather than phenocrysts.     

Carbon-isotope composition of sediments from the Gulf of Papua

Rivers draining into the Gulf of Papua (GOP) from the Papua New Guinea mainland deliver approximately 340 × 10⁶ t yr^–1 of sediment to the marine environment. The terrestrially derived sediment contains 1.1 ± 0.2% particulate organic carbon with a carbon-isotope composition of –26.5 ± 0.2, and amounts to 3.7 ± 0.7 × 10⁶ t yr^–1. The carbon-isotope composition of sediments in the Gulf of Papua indicates that 40% of the sediment cover contains 75% or more terrestrially derived carbon. Suspended sediments that are transported beyond the delta complex of the Fly River are transported north and northwest, augmented by sediments from other rivers along the coast of the GOP. The carbon-isotope results suggest that a significant quantity of terrestrially derived sediment escapes from the GOP, either along the coastlines to east and west or into the deep ocean via the Moresby and Pandora troughs. Little sediment travels south onto the Great Barrier Reef shelf. Extrapolating the results from this study to the region of Oceania suggests a total flux of particulate organic carbon to the world's oceans from the islands of Oceania of ~ 90 × 10⁶ t yr^–1 or twice the flux of riverine POC from the major rivers of North America, South America, and Africa combined. While such a calculation must be considered illustrative only, the similar tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic features of the islands of Oceania suggest that the calculation is unlikely to be grossly in error and that the rivers of Oceania therefore represent a major but poorly documented source of sediment and organic carbon to the global ocean.     

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m³ s^–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m³ s^–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m³ s^–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.