A field test of a linear stability model for crescentic bars

A morphodynamical linear stability analysis is used to predict the natural development of crescentic bed patterns and rip channels. The purpose is to investigate whether this technique, which is useful for understanding the physics of emerging bed-forms, can be used to make quantitative predictions in the field, which may then be of use for coastal engineers.     

On the normal law of errors

Conclusion This article is only a very general and theoretical introduction to the modified normal distributions. The author is presently engaged in further development of the theory in the analysis of various examples, the most remarkable of which are of astronomical origin. The lineo-normal distributions seem to be strikingly well confirmed by many types of observations and measurements. It is only through the analysis of a great number of large samples that the concept of zero error and its impact on the general theory of errors will be definitely clarified. The author thanks Dr. Preston-Thomas for the interest he has constantly shown in the research of statistical nature and Mr. T. Blachut and his group of photogrammetrists who constantly helped the author with their discussions and encouragements. The Division of Positional Astronomy of the Dominion Observatory played a prominent role in this activity and the author hopes to be able to say more, in a not too distant future, about his cooperation with the astronomers of the Observatory. Finally, the author expresses his gratitude to Mr. Eric Green for his continuous assistance in the building of the theory and the numerical computations. This part of the statistical research, which involves complicated programming, is bound to grow with the development of the theory.     

Agricultural land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon based on remote sensing and census data

The potential impact of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon on greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere calls for policies that take account of changes in forest cover. Although much research has focused on the location and effects of deforestation, little is known about the distribution and reasons for the agricultural uses that replace forest cover. We used Landsat TM-based deforestation and agricultural census data to generate maps of the distribution and proportion of four major agricultural land uses throughout the Brazilian Amazon in 1997 and 2007. We built linear and spatial regression models to assess the determinant factors of deforestation and those major agricultural land uses - pasture, temporary agriculture and permanent agriculture - for the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso. The data include 30 determinant factors that were grouped into two years (1996 and 2006) and in four categories: accessibility to markets, public policies, agrarian structure, and environment. We found an overall expansion of the total agricultural area between 1997 and 2007, and notable differences between the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso in land use changes during this period. Regression models for deforestation and pasture indicated that determinant factors such as distance to roads were more influential in 1997 than in 2007. The number of settled families played an important role in the deforestation and pasture, the effect was stronger in 2007 than 1997. Indigenous lands were significant in preventing deforestation in high-pressure areas in 2007. For temporary and permanent agricultures, our results show that in 1997 the effect of small farms was stronger than in 2007. The mapped land use time series and the models explain empirically the effects of land use changes across the region over one decade.     

A seismic study of deep geological structure in the Bristol Channel area, SW Britain

Summary. Results from eight seismic refraction lines, 35–90 km long, in the Bristol Channel area are presented. The data, mostly land recordings of marine shots, have been interpreted mainly by ray-tracing and time-term modelling. Upper layer velocities through Palaeozoic rocks usually fall within the range 4.8–5.2 km s⁻¹. Below the Carboniferous Limestone with a normal velocity of 5.1–5.2 kms⁻¹, the Old Red Sandstone with a velocity of 4.7–4.8 kms⁻¹ acts as a low velocity layer, as do parts of the underlying Lower Palaeozoic succession. In the central South Wales/Bristol Channel area and the Mendips, a 5.4–5.5 km s⁻¹ refractor is correlated with a horizon at or near the top of the Lower Palaeozoic succession. Under the whole area, except for north Devon, a 6.0–6.2 km s⁻¹ basal refractor has been located and is correlated with Precambrian crystalline basement rocks. In general, this refractor deepens southwards from a series of basement highs, which existed before the major movements of the Variscan orogeny in South Wales, resulting in a southerly thickening of the pre Upper Carboniferous supra-basement sequence. In north Devon, a 6.2 km s⁻¹ refractor at shallow depth, interpreted as a horizon in the Devonian or Lower Palaeozoic succession, overlies a deep reflector that may represent the Precambrian crystalline basement.     

Granitic plutonism as an indicator of microplates in the Palaeozoic of central and eastern Maine

Oxygen and strontium isotope ratios have been used to characterize source regions for granitic magmas for a transect across the northern Appalachian orogen in central and eastern Maine. The northwestern plutons (Katahdin and Seboeis) have δ¹⁸O values of 10.3–13.3 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.7083 and 0.7066, respectively. The central plutons (Bottle Lake and Center Pond) have lower δ¹⁸O values (8.2–9.9) and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7043–0.7055). The southeastern plutons (Lucerne and Deblois) have δ¹⁸O values (9.0–11.0) but initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7077 and 0.7041, respectively) which are intermediate between the northwestern and central plutons.Source models derived from these results and other petrological and geochemical data reflect the juxtaposition of discrete source regions by transcurrent faulting, which may be related to oblique plate motions. This model illustrates the importance of microplate accretion in the Palaeozoic history of the northern Appalachian orogen.     

Transformation of the Ebro River Delta under the Impact of Intense Human-Induced Reduction of Sediment Runoff

The regularities of the Ebro River delta formation and the impact of hydraulic construction on the river sediment runoff are discussed. As shown, the drastic reduction of the sediment runoff after the construction of two large reservoirs in the lower river reaches in the 1960s slowed down the delta protrusion and intensified the delta coastline washout.     

Strain accumulation along an oblique plate boundary: the Reykjanes Peninsula, southwest Iceland

We use annual GPS observations on the Reykjanes Peninsula (RP) from 2000 to 2006 to generate maps of surface velocities and strain rates across the active plate boundary. We find that the surface deformation on the RP is consistent with oblique plate boundary motion on a regional scale, although considerable temporal and spatial strain rate variations are observed within the plate boundary zone. A small, but consistent increase in eastward velocity is observed at several stations on the southern part of the peninsula, compared to the 1993–1998 time period. The 2000–2006 velocities can be modelled by approximating the plate boundary as a series of vertical dislocations with left-lateral motion and opening. For the RP plate boundary we estimate left-lateral motion  18⁺⁴₋₃ mm yr⁻¹  and opening of  7⁺³₋₂ mm yr⁻¹  below a locking depth of  7⁺¹₋₂ km  . The resulting deep motion of  20⁺⁴₋₃ mm yr⁻¹  in the direction of  N(100⁺⁸₋₆)°E  agrees well with the predicted relative North America–Eurasia rate. We calculate the areal and shear strain rates using velocities from two periods: 1993–1998 and 2000–2006. The deep motion along the plate boundary results in left-lateral shear strain rates, which are perturbed by shallow deformation due to the 1994–1998 inflation and elevated seismicity in the Hengill–Hrómundartindur volcanic system, geothermal fluid extraction at the Svartsengi power plant, and possibly earthquake activity on the central part of the peninsula.