An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

The afterglow of a dense molecular cloud after the passage of a cosmological gamma-ray burst

Bolometric light curves for the afterglow resulting from the passage of a gamma-ray burst through a molecular cloud are computed. The profile and duration of the afterglow light curve depend strongly on the distribution of matter in the cloud, the degree of collimation of the gamma-ray radiation, and the observing conditions. The peak can be reached as soon as seven days (the gamma-ray burst is located at some distance from the center of a molecular cloud with small-scale density enhancements), or as long as one to three years (the gamma-ray burst is located at the center of a uniform molecular cloud) after the burst. The bolometric luminosity of the re-radiated signal can reach 6.5 × 10⁴² erg/s.     

Organic matter of the North Atlantic

The areas that we studied in the North Atlantic (53 and 60°N) and in the Labrador Sea in the summer were characterized by a wide variability of the concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic matter and its elemental composition both in the surface and in the deep waters. The concentrations of dissolved and particulate C_org varied within 69–360 μM and 0.7–25.6 μM, respectively; the N_org and P_org contents varied within 1.4–22.2 μM and 0.02–0.86 μM, respectively. The maximal concentrations were registered in the photic layer and in the zones of mixing between the waters of different genesis. The particulate matter contribution to the total organic matter (OM) content varied from 0.5 to 15.4%. The waters of the photic layer contained more particulate C_org than those of the near-bottom layer. The values of the C/N molar ratios from the surface to the bottom over the entire aquatic area surveyed varied 5-to 6-fold; at that, the values of the C/P molar ratios varied more than tenfold. In the most productive waters, the values of the C/N ratios were close to the Redfield ratios (6–10). The values of the C/P molar ratios varied from 160 in the photic layer to 4831 in the deep waters. The pronounced non-uniformity in the spatial distribution of the OM and its elemental composition is caused not only by the penetration of the waters of different origins but also by the changes in the microplankton metabolism under mixing of these waters.     

Origin and differentiation of picritic arc magmas,Ambae (Aoba), Vanuatu

Key aspects of magma generation and magma evolution in subduction zones are addressed in a study of Ambae (Aoba) volcano, Vanuatu. Two major lava suites (a low-Ti suite and high-Ti suite) are recognised on the basis of phenocryst mineralogy, geochemistry, and stratigraphy. Phenocryst assemblages in the more primitive low-Ti suite are dominated by magnesian olivine (mg 80 to 93.4) and clinopyroxene (mg 80 to 92), and include accessory Cr-rich spinel (cr 50 to 84). Calcic plagioclase and titanomagnetite are important additional phenocryst phases in the high-Ti suite lavas and the most evolved low-Ti suite lavas. The low-Ti suite lavas span a continuous compositional range, from picritic (up to 20 wt% MgO) to high-alumina basalts (<5 wt% MgO), and are consistent with differentiation involving observed phenocrysts. Melt compositions (aphyric lavas and groundmasses) in the low-Ti suite form a liquid-line of descent which corresponds with the petrographically-determined order of crystallisation: olivine + Cr-spinel, followed by clinopyroxene + olivine + titanomagnetite, and then plagioclase + clinopyroxene + olivine + titanomagnetite. A primary melt for the low-Ti suite has been estimated by correcting the most magnesian melt composition (an aphyric lava with 10.5 wt% MgO) for crystal fractionation, at the oxidising conditions determined from olivine-spinel pairs (fo₂ FMQ + 2.5 log units), until in equilibrium with the most magnesian olivine phenocrysts. The resultant composition has 15 wt% MgO and an mg ^Fe2 value of 81. It requires deep (3 GPa) melting of the peridotitic mantle wedge at a potential temperature consistent with current estimates for the convecting upper mantle (T _p 1300°C). At least three geochemically-distinct source components are necessary to account for geochemical differences between, and geochemical heterogeneity within, the major lava suites. Two components, one LILE-rich and the other LILE- and LREE-rich, may both derive from the subducting ocean crust, possibly as an aqueous fluid and a silicate melt respeetively. A third component is attributed to either differnt degrees of melting, or extents of incompatible-element depletion, of the peridotitic mantle wedge.     

Measurement of the redox speciation of iron in seawater by catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry

Catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry (CSV) preceded by adsorptive collection of complexes of 1-nitroso-2-napthol (NN) can be used to determine iron in seawater. It is shown here that iron(II) is effectively masked in the presence of 2,2-dipyridyl (Dp) so that iron(III) is measured selectively. The concentration of iron(II) is then calculated as the difference between the concentrations of reactive iron (Fe_R) in the absence and presence of 2 μM Dp, Fe_R being defined as that which was complexed by 20 μM NN at pH 6.9 in the presence of 1.8 mM H₂O₂ and 5 ppm sodium dodecyl sulphate. A 30 min reaction time was allowed for Dp to react with iron(II) in seawater prior to the determination of reactive iron(III) using the same conditions as used for Fe_R. Detection limits of 0.08 nM, 0.077 nM and 0.12 nM were obtained for Fe_R, iron(III) and iron(II), respectively, using a 60 s deposition time.The method was utilised to determine the redox speciation of iron in the northern North Sea. Concentrations of Fe_R ranged between 0.8 and 3.5 nM with nutrient-like depth profiles. Iron(II) was found to be present at concentrations up to 1.2 nM, the highest concentrations occurring in the upper 20 m of the water column.     

Morphology and structure of the Galapagos Rise

Geophysical data collected on three U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office cruises to the Galapagos Rise are presented. These data allow definition of the morphology and structure of the Galapagos Rise.A postulated “hot spot” beneath the Galapagos platform is suggested as the cause of: (1) decreased seismicity along the spreading center for a 400 km E—W distance from the islands; (2) distinctive petro-chemistry of tholeiites from the islands and adjacent oceanic crust generated by the Galapagos Rise; (3) high-amplitude magnetic anomalies in a 1,000 km E—W band including and just north of the Galapagos platform; and (4) morphologic shape and the regionally elevated sea floor of the Galapagos Rise as it approaches the insular platform.     

Effects of atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area

Summary A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical model and lagrangian particle model (random walk model) were used to investigate the effects of the atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area. Initially, emitted particulate matter rises from the surface of the city towards the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL), owing to daytime thermal heating of the surface and the combined effect of an onshore wind with a westerly synoptic-scale wind. A reinforcing sea-valley breeze directed from the coast toward the city of Seoul, which is enclosed in a basin and bordered by mountains to its east, disperses the suspended particulate matter toward the eastern mountains. Total suspended particulate concentration (TSP) at ground level in the city is very low and relatively high in the mountains. Radiative cooling of the surface produces a shallow nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL) and the suspended particulate matter still present near the top of the CBL from the previous day, sinks to the surface. An easterly downslope mountain wind is directed into the metropolitan area, transporting particulate matter towards the city, thereby recycling the pollutants. The particulates descending from the top of the NSIL and mountains, combine with particulates emitted near the surface over the city at night, and under the shallow NSIL spread out, resulting in a maximum ground level concentration of TSP in the metropolitan area at 2300 LST. As those particles move toward the Yellow Sea through the topographically shaped outlet west of Seoul city under the influence of the easterly land breeze, the maximum TSP concentration occurs at the coastal site. During the following morning, onshore winds resulting from a combined synoptic-scale westerly wind and westerly sea breeze, force particulates dispersed the previous night to move over the adjacent sea and back over the inland metropolitan area. The recycled particulates combine with the particulates emitted from the surface in the central part of the metropolitan area, producing a high TSP and again rise towards the top of the CBL ready to repeat the cycle.     

Sediment records as archives of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene hydrological change in the alluvial Narmada River basin, western India

The rivers of western India are monsoon dominated and have been so throughout the late Quaternary. Sediment accumulation in these river basins has been controlled by climatic and tectonic changes over a time span from the Late Pleistocene to the recent. The lithofacies assemblages associated with the various sediment archives in the Narmada basin range from the boulders of the alluvial fans to overbank fines on the alluvial plains. Estimates, based on clast size, of stream power and competence, bed shear stress and discharge reveal that hydrological conditions during the Late Pleistocene (∼90 ka) were comparable to the present day. The size of the transported clasts and the thickness of the accumulated sediment indicate the influence of basin subsidence rather than an increase in discharge. Discharge estimates based on sedimentary structures preserved in the alluvial-plain facies suggest that the channel had a persistent flow, with a low width-depth ratio and large meander wavelength. The hydrological changes during the Holocene are more pronounced where the early Holocene is marked by a high-intensity hydrological regime that induced erosion and incision of the earlier sediments. The mid-Holocene stream channel was less sinuous and had a higher width-depth ratio and a higher meander amplitude in comparison with the present-day channel. Palaeo-fluvial reconstructions based on the sediment archives in the alluvial reach of the river basin are important tools in understanding the long-term hydrological changes and the intricate fluvial architecture preserved in the Narmada River basin ensures scope for detailed studies to identify phases of weak and enhanced hydrological regimes.