Generalized flux law,with an application

A generalized flux law, which can specialize into power‐ and diffusive‐type flux laws, is proposed. When coupled with the continuity equation, a generalized flow equation is the result. The generalized equation specializes into several cases, one of which is the kinematic wave equation. By applying the generalized flow equation and its variants to flow routing in two rivers, the usefulness of the generalized flux law is evaluated. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

评估空间—发生率—震级地震预测的基于似然的检验

区域地震似然模型(RELM)工作组的5年实验是设计用来比较预测加州及附近各纬度-经度-震级单元地震发生率的若干有希望的方法。这种预测模式被作为世界范围内其他地震可预测性试验的蓝本,因此考虑如何评估这种预测的性能是很重要的。最近采用的两个试验都基于给定预测情况下观测到的地震分布的概率,一个测试比较了空间-发生率-震级单元的观测值和预测值,另一个测试仅仅比较了预测的发生率和观测地震的数目。在本文中,我们讨论了目前关于发生率预测的微小的缺陷,我们建议采用另外两个测试分别进行空间-发生率-震级预测的空间和震级分量的预测。为了更好地说明问题,我们考虑了区域地震似然模型预测和进行区域地震似然模型实验的前半期观测到的地震分布。我们得出空间—发生率—震级预测好像是和观测地震的分布相一致,尽管空间预测和观测地震的空间分布是不一致的,我们建议这些新的测试应该被用于提供更详细的地震预测评估。我们也讨论了每个基于似然测试的统计学功效以及基于似然测试的结果的稳定性(相对于地震目录的不确定性)。     

A probabilistic performance‐based approach for mitigating the seismic pounding risk between adjacent buildings

Existing design procedures for determining the separation distance between adjacent buildings subjected to seismic pounding risk are based on approximations of the buildings' peak relative displacement. These procedures are characterized by unknown safety levels and thus are not suitable for use within a performance‐based earthquake engineering framework. This paper introduces an innovative reliability‐based methodology for the design of the separation distance between adjacent buildings. The proposed methodology, which is naturally integrated into modern performance‐based design procedures, provides the value of the separation distance corresponding to a target probability of pounding during the design life of the buildings. It recasts the inverse reliability problem of the determination of the design separation distance as a zero‐finding problem and involves the use of analytical techniques in order to evaluate the statistics of the dynamic response of the buildings. Both uncertainty in the seismic intensity and record‐to‐record variability are taken into account. The proposed methodology is applied to several different buildings modeled as linear elastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) and multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems, as well as SDOF nonlinear hysteretic systems. The design separation distances obtained are compared with the corresponding estimates that are based on several response combination rules suggested in the seismic design codes and in the literature. In contrast to current seismic code design procedures, the newly proposed methodology provides consistent safety levels for different building properties and different seismic hazard conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the geomagnetic induction tensor

The geomagnetic induction tensor is a means of summarizing the response of the earth at a given observing site to a geomagnetic variation source field. In this paper the characteristics of the tensor elements are examined, both generally and for the special cases of one-dimensional and two-dimensional geologic structure. The first-order model is taken of uniform source fields originating external to a semi-infinite half-space. Graphical ways of presenting the information contained in an induction tensor are explored, including ellipses of rotation, polar diagrams, and diagrams analogous to the Mohr circles of elasticity theory. Criteria to distinguish “two-dimensional” data from “three-dimensional” data are established. The advantages of simultaneously recording “normal” and “anomalous” variations are demonstrated in terms of the extra tensor elements which may then be estimated. The most practical way of presenting information from many stations on a map may be by drawing, for each site, arrows which summarize the response in the vertical field and quadrics which summarize the response in the horizontal field.     

LONG TERM SEDIMENT YIELD AND MITIGATION IN A SMALL SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WATERSHED

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Geological interpretation of a deep seismic‐reflection transect across the boundary between the Delamerian and Lachlan Orogens,in the vicinity of the Grampians,western Victoria

A deep seismic‐reflection transect in western Victoria was designed to provide insights into the structural relationship between the Lachlan and the Delamerian Orogens. Three seismic lines were acquired to provide images of the subsurface from west of the Grampians Range to east of the Stawell‐Ararat Fault Zone. The boundary between the Delamerian and Lachlan Orogens is now generally considered to be the Moyston Fault. In the vicinity of the seismic survey, this fault is intruded by a near‐surface granite, but at depth the fault dips to the east, confirming recent field mapping. East of the Moyston Fault, the uppermost crust is very weakly reflective, consisting of short, non‐continuous, west‐dipping reflections. These weak reflections represent rocks of the Lachlan Orogen and are typical of the reflective character seen on other seismic images from elsewhere in the Lachlan Orogen. Within the Lachlan Orogen, the Pleasant Creek Fault is also east dipping and approximately parallel to the Moyston Fault in the plane of the seismic section. Rocks of the Delamerian Orogen in the vicinity of the seismic line occur below surficial cover to the west of the Moyston Fault. Generally, the upper crust is only weakly reflective, but subhorizontal reflections at shallow depths (up to 3 km) represent the Grampians Group. The Escondida Fault appears to stop below the Grampians Group, and has an apparent gentle dip to the east. Farther east, the Golton and Mehuse Faults are also east dipping. The middle to lower crust below the Delamerian Orogen is strongly reflective, with several major antiformal structures in the middle crust. The Moho is a slightly undulating horizon at the base of the highly reflective middle to lower crust at 11–12 s TWT (approximately 35 km depth). Tectonically, the western margin of the Lachlan Orogen has been thrust over the Delamerian Orogen for a distance of at least 25 km, and possibly over 40 km.     

Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.     

Two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model for small agricultural watersheds: I. Model development

Soil erosion by water is the root cause of ecological degradation in the Shiwalik foothills of Northern India. Simulation of runoff and its component processes is a pre‐requisite to develop the management strategies to tackle the problem, successfully. A two‐dimensional physically based distributed numerical model, ROMO2D has been developed to simulate runoff from small agricultural watersheds on an event basis. The model employs the 2‐D Richards equation with sink term to simulate infiltration and soil moisture dynamics in the vadoze zone under variable rainfall conditions, and 2‐D Saint‐Venant equations under the kinematic wave approximation along with Manning's equation as the stage‐discharge equation for runoff routing. The various flow‐governing equations have been solved numerically by employing a Galerkin finite element method for spatial discretization using quadrilateral elements and finite difference techniques for temporal solutions. The ROMO2D computer program has been developed as a class‐based program, coded in C + + in such a way that with minor modifications, the model can be used to simulate runoff on a continuous basis. The model writes output for a runoff hydrograph of each storm. Model development is described in this paper and the results of model testing and field application are to be presented in a subsequent paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.