Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

A formation mechanism of magnetic elements in regions of mixed polarity

We present 2-D, fully compressible radiation-MHD simulations of the solar photospheric and subphotospheric layers that run for 2 hours of solar time starting from a magnetic configuration with mixed polarities. In the atmospheric layers the simulation reveals a correlation between field strength and inclination, with a nearly vertical strong-field magnetic component and a more horizontal weak-field component, in agreement with the observations. Our simulation also shows that magnetic flux is converted from one of these states to the other. In particular, magnetic flux sheets can also be formed when a new downflow lane starts due to granule fragmentation. The dynamics of the granulation and field-line reconnection are found to play a role in the initial stages of a magnetic element's formation. The simulation predicts that during or shortly after their formation magnetic elements could be associated with oppositely polarized flux at a small spatial scale.     

Variable stars in the field of open cluster NGC 6819

We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June  22–30  and 1999 July  22–31  . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included.     

Cosmic‐ray exposure history of two Frontier Mountain H‐chondrite showers from spallation and neutron‐capture products

Abstract— We measured the concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca and ¹⁴C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced ³⁶Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 10⁵ years) and ⁴¹Ca (1.04 times 10⁵ years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl and ⁴¹Ca, as well as spallation produced ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 10³ years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for ³⁶Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for ⁴¹Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture ⁴¹Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ～150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 10³ years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl, but no excess of ⁴¹Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ～1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne and ²⁶Al/²¹Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture ³⁶Ar (from decay of ³⁶Cl) result in concordant ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar exposure ages.     

A photometric study of the polar ring galaxy UGC 5600

We analyze our BVR _c photometry for UGC 5600, a candidate polar ring galaxy, obtained with the 6-m telescope. We have confirmed the existence of an inner polar ring and show that the outer ring-shaped structure represents spiral arms; i.e., UGC 5600 belongs to the rare class of gas-rich spiral galaxies with inner polar rings.     

Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

Roughness of the lunar soil

In situ measurements at the lunar surface at millimeter resolution by the Apollo astronauts have been analyzed. Several statistical parameters have been determined for the landing site. The surface roughness has been found to be very nearly gaussian. The root-mean-square slopes have been obtained over scales between 0.5 mm and 5 cm. They steadily decrease with increasing scale length from 58° to 2° and are in reasonable agreement with radar-measured values. The autocorrelation coefficient of the height distribution has also been obtained. It has a scale-length of 0.7 mm.Adjunct Professor at the University of Massachusetts.Visiting Scholar at the University of Massachusetts.     

A new class of periodic solutions in the Kovalevskaya case of a rigid body in rotation about a fixed point

The equation of motion of a rigid body in Kovaleveskaya case is reduced to a plane motion. By using the method of small parameters introduced by Poincaré, the existence of a periodic solution is established.