Antarctic sea-ice relationships with indices of the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere

A link between the Antarctic sea-ice extent and low-frequency atmospheric variations, particularly ENSO, has been suggested by recent modeling and empirical studies. This question is examined here using a high-resolution (by week, by region) data base of Antarctic sea-ice extent for the 1973–1982 period. Although of relatively short duration by Northern Hemisphere standards, such a data base offers an opportunity rare in Southern Hemisphere climate studies. The seaice variations are examined in the context of longer-term indices of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. These are a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and an index of sea-level pressure (SLP) wavenumber one in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The indices are updated through 1982, and their associations with regional-scale pressure indices in the Australia-New Zealand sector are also examined. The 1973–1982 period is anomalous when compared with the period 1951–1972. Correlation analysis of the monthly sea ice and circulation index values reveals that much of the apparent link between the ice and the SOI suggested in previous studies arises from autocorrelations present in both data sets and the strong annual cycle of sea-ice extent. Removing these effects from the data and re-running the correlations reveals that most of the resulting significant associations between the ice and one or other of the circulation indices can probably be explained on the basis of chance. In order to reconcile these findings with previous studies that show some strong ice-circulation interactions on regional scales, only those months in which significant correlations occur between both largescale circulation indices and the sea ice are examined further. These occur preferentially in the Ross and Weddell sectors, which constitute the regions contributing most to the variability of Antarctic sea ice. The analysis suggests that the sea-ice-extent changes lag the SOI by several months but may precede changes in extratropical SLP wavenumber one. Confirmation of these tentative regional ice extent-circulation teleconnections necessarily awaits the forward extension of the high-resolution sea-ice data base beyond the 10 years available here.This paper is based on material presented at the Conference on Mechanisms of Interannual and Longer-Term Climatic Variations held at the University of Melbourne, Australia: December 8–12, 1986.     

Lessons Learned from 25 Years of Research at the MADE Site

Field studies at well‐instrumented research sites have provided extensive data sets and important insights essential for development and testing of transport theories and mathematical models. This paper provides an overview of over 25 years of research and lessons learned at one of such field research sites on the Columbus Air Force Base in Mississippi, commonly known as the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site. Since the mid‐1980s, field data from the MADE site have been used extensively by researchers around the world to explore complex contaminant transport phenomena in highly heterogeneous porous media. Results from field investigations and modeling analyses suggested that connected networks of small‐scale preferential flow paths and relative flow barriers exert dominant control on solute transport processes. The classical advection‐dispersion model was shown to inadequately represent plume‐scale transport, while the dual‐domain mass transfer model was found to reproduce the primary observed plume characteristics. The MADE site has served as a valuable natural observatory for contaminant transport studies where new observations have led to better understanding and improved models have sprung out analysis of new data.     

Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model. Part I: ENSO-like climate variability and its low-frequency modulation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in a multicentury integration conducted with the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHAM3/LSG. The quasiperiodic interannual oscillations of the simulated equatorial Pacific climate system are due to subsurface temperature anomaly propagation and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback. The gravest internal wave modes contribute to the generation of these anomalies. The simulated ENSO has a characteristic period of 5–8 years. Due to the coarse resolution of the ocean model the ENSO amplitude is underestimated by a factor of three as compared to observations. The model ENSO is associated with the typical atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using wavelet statistics two characteristic interdecadal modulations of the ENSO variance are identified. The origins of a 22 and 35?y ENSO modulation as well as the characteristic ENSO response to greenhouse warming simulated by our model are discussed.     

Defining dynamic pelagic habitats in oceanic waters off eastern Australia

Although many species in the pelagic ocean are widespread, they are not randomly distributed. These species may have associations with particular water masses or habitats, but to best understand patterns in the ocean, these habitats must be identified. Previous efforts have produced static or seasonal climatologies, which still represent smearing over habitats. The Eastern Tuna and Billfish Longline Fishery (ETBF) targets a range of high trophic level species in oceanic waters off eastern Australia. In this study, dynamic ocean habitats in the region were identified for each month based on cluster analysis of five oceanographic variables averaged at a monthly time scale and a spatial scale of 0.5° for the period 1995-2006. A total of seven persistent habitats were identified off eastern Australia with intra and interannual variation in size and location, indicating the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the dynamics of the region. The degree to which these dynamic habitats were distinguished was tested using (i) stable isotope analysis of top fish predators caught in the region and (ii) estimates of variation in estimated abundance generated from catch data from the fishery. More precise estimates (measured as lower total CV) of isotopic values from swordfish (Xiphias gladius), yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) were obtained for 4 of 6 isotope comparisons using the dynamic habitat groupings, which indicate that stratifying by pelagic habitat improved precision. Dynamic habitats produced more precise abundance estimates for 7 of 8 large pelagic species examined, with an average reduction in total CV of 19% compared to when abundance was estimated based on static habitat stratification. These findings could be used to guide development of effective monitoring strategies that can distinguish patterns due to environmental variation, and in the longer term, climate change.     

Cosmogenic radiocarbon as a means of studying solar activity in the past

A series of yearly data on the concentration of radioactive carbon ¹⁴C in tree rings measured at the Tbilisi State University in 1983–1986 and covering the time interval 1600–1940 is statistically analyzed. We find evidence for a 22-year cyclicity in the intensity of Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the Maunder minimum of the solar activity (1645–1715), testifying that the solar dynamo mechanism continued to operate during this epoch. Variations of Δ¹⁴C on timescales of tens and hundreds of years correlate well with the corresponding variations of the GCR intensity and solar activity, making radiocarbon a reliable source of information on long-timescale variations of solar activity in the past. Short-timescale (<30 years) fluctuations of Δ¹⁴C may be appreciably distorted by time variations not associated directly with solar activity; probable origins of this distortion are discussed.     

Peak response of 2-DOF uncoupled oscillator under two-directional base motion

This paper investigates the peak response of a 2-DOF uncoupled linear oscillator under arbitrarily oriented two-component horizontal earthquake motion. Input data consist of 22 two-component acceleration records from the magnitude 6.6, October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. One-directional response spectra for each principal direction of the oscillator, and two-directional response spectra (amplitude of the peak resultant response and its direction with respect to principal directions) are calculated by considering all angles of incidence of the excitation. The results indicate that, for oscillators that are not too flexible (i.e. with natural frequencies greater than 0.8 Hz), the two-directional peak response is controlled by the weaker direction of the oscillator. For flexible oscillators the two-directional peak response is controlled by the direction whose natural frequency is closer to dominant ground motion frequencies. The results also show that when the two-directional peak response is expressed as a weighted sum of one-directional peak responses, the weighting factors are not constants, but functions of oscillator and dominant ground motion frequencies.     

Aklimaite, Ca4[Si2O5(OH)2](OH)4 · 5H2O, a new natural hydrosilicate from Mount Lakargi, the Northern Caucasus, Russia

A new mineral aklimaite, Ca₄[Si₂O₅(OH)₂](OH)₄ · 5H₂O, has been found near Mount Lakargi, Upper Chegem caldera, Kabardino-Balkaria, the Northern Caucasus, Russia, in the skarnified limestone xenolith in ignimbrite. This hydrothermal mineral occurs in a cavity of altered larnite skarn and is associated with larnite, calcium humite-group members, hydrogarnets, bultfonteinite, afwillite, and ettringite. Aklimaite forms transparent, colorless (or occasionally with pinkish tint) columnar or lath-shaped crystals up 3 × 0.1 × 0.01 mm in size, flattened on {001} and elongated along {010}; they are combined in spherulites. The luster is vitreous; the cleavage parallel to the {001} is perfect. D _calc = 2.274 g/cm³. The Mohs’ hardness is 3–4. Aklimaite is optically biaxial, negative, 2V _meas > 70°, 2V _calc = 78°, α = 1.548(2), β = 1.551(3), γ = 1.553(2). The IR and Raman spectra are given. The chemical composition (wt %, electron microprobe) is as follows: 0.06 Na₂O, 0.02 K₂O, 45.39 CaO, 0.01 MnO, 0.02 FeO, 24.23 SiO₂, 0.04 SO₃, 3.22 F, 27.40 H₂O_(calc.), ?1.36 -O=F₂; the total is 99.03. The empirical formula calculated on the basis of 2Si apfu with O + OH + F = 16 is as follows: (Ca_4.02Na_0.01)_Σ4.03[Si_2.00O_5.07(OH)_1.93][(OH)_3.16F_0.84] _Σ4.00 · 5H₂O. The mineral is monoclinic, space group C2/m, a = 16.907(5), b = 3.6528(8), c = 13.068(4) Å, β = 117.25(4)·, V= 717.5(4) ų, Z = 2. Aklimaite is representative of the new structural type, the sorosilicate with disilicate groups [Si₂O₅(OH)₂]. The strongest reflections in the X-ray powder patterns [d, Å (hkl)] are: 11.64(100)(001), 2.948(32)(310, 203), 3.073(20) ( $\bar 404$ , $\bar 311$ ), 2.320(12)(005, 510), 2.901 (11)(004), 8.30(10) $\left( {\bar 201} \right)$ . The type specimen is deposited in the Fersman Mineralogical Museum, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow.