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91.
We address recent concerns that the sunspot-area measurements performed by the United States Air Force (USAF) Solar Observing Optical Network (SOON) have been underestimating sunspot areas. We examine briefly the history of SOON, and we perform an analysis of a three-decade time series of SOON measurements. By remeasuring USAF sunspot areas, we find that sunspot areas are being underestimated by between 8% and 17% due to the measuring techniques employed by SOON analysts. In particular, the SOON practice of rounding down limb-area correction factors results in some individual regions having areas reported by up to 50% less than their true values. This does not, however, account for the full discrepancy in sunspot areas between SOON and other observatories, which, in recent years, may be as high as a 50% discrepancy. 相似文献
92.
K. Wyser C. G. Jones P. Du E. Girard U. Willén J. Cassano J. H. Christensen J. A. Curry K. Dethloff J.-E. Haugen D. Jacob M. Køltzow R. Laprise A. Lynch S. Pfeifer A. Rinke M. Serreze M. J. Shaw M. Tjernström M. Zagar 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(2-3):203-223
Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic
Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project.
The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but
differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions.
Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path
and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically
integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble
mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the
winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation
budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages,
many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with
no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget
reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud
amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic. 相似文献
93.
Andreas C.W. Baas Derek W.T. Jackson Irene Delgado-Fernandez Kevin Lynch J. Andrew G. Cooper 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(8):1817-1827
Conventional aeolian sand transport models relate mass transport rate to wind speed or shear velocity, usually expressed and empirically tested on a 1-s time scale. Projections of total sand delivery over long time scales based on these models are highly sensitive to any small bias arising from statistical fitting on empirical data. We analysed time series of wind speed and sand transport rate collected at 14 independent measurement stations on a beach during a prior field experiment. The results show that relating total sand drift to cumulative above-threshold wind run yields models which are more statistically robust when fitted on empirical data, generating smaller prediction errors when projected to longer time scales. Testing of different power exponents indicates that a linear relationship between sand drift and above-threshold wind run yields the best results. These findings inspire a speculative novel phenomenological model relating the mass flow of air in the boundary layer to the mass transport of sand over the surface. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
94.
Donald R. Cahoon Brian C. Perez Bradley D. Segura James C. Lynch 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011,91(4):463-474
Given the potential for a projected acceleration in sea-level rise to impact wetland sustainability over the next century, a better understanding is needed of climate-related drivers that influence the processes controlling wetland elevation. Changes in local hydrology and groundwater conditions can cause short-term perturbations to marsh elevation trends through shrink–swell of marsh soils. To better understand the magnitude of these perturbations and their impacts on marsh elevation trends, we measured vertical accretion and elevation dynamics in microtidal marshes in Texas and Louisiana during and after the extreme drought conditions that existed there from 1998 to 2000. In a Louisiana marsh, elevation was controlled by subsurface hydrologic fluxes occurring below the root zone but above the 4 m depth (i.e., the base of the surface elevation table benchmark) that were related to regional drought and local meteorological conditions, with marsh elevation tracking water level variations closely. In Texas, a rapid decline in marsh elevation was related to severe drought conditions, which lowered local groundwater levels. Unfragmented marshes experienced smaller water level drawdowns and more rapid marsh elevation recovery than fragmented marshes. It appears that extended drawdowns lead to increased substrate consolidation making it less resilient to respond to future favorable conditions. Overall, changes in water storage lead to rapid and large short-term impacts on marsh elevation that are as much as five times greater than the long-term elevation trend, indicating the importance of long-term, high-resolution elevation data sets to understand the prolonged effects of water deficits on marsh elevation change. 相似文献
95.
An investigation of the sensitivity of a land surface model to climate change using a reduced form model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity
of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten
integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil
temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are
varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land
surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors
of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios
characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity
of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models,
since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave
and shortwave radiation.
Received: 27 March 2000 / Accepted: 11 September 2000 相似文献
96.
Isotopic evidence for the origin of Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the Pinacate volcanic field, northwestern Mexico 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Six volcanic rocks, reconnaissance samples representing most of the temporal and compositional variation in the Pinacate volcanic field of Sonora and Arizona, are characterized for major element and Nd---Sr isotopic compositions. The samples consist of basanite through trachyte of an early shield volcano, and alkali basalts and a tholeiite from later craters and cinder cones. With the exception of the trachyte sample, which has increased 87Sr/86Sr due to crustal effects, all 87Sr/86Sr values fall between 0.70312 and 0.70342, while εNd values are all between + 5.0 and + 5.7. Clinopyroxene in a rare spinel-lherzolite nodule derived from the uppermost mantle beneath the field has 87Sr/86Sr of 0.70320 but εNd of + 8.8, three εNd units higher than the volcanic rocks. Both the volcanic rocks and the nodule record the presence of asthenospheric, rather than enriched lithospheric mantle beneath Pinacate. This is consistent with one or both of (a) proximity of Pinacate to the Gulf of California spreading center and (b) presence of similar asthenospheric mantle signatures in volcanic rocks over a wide contiguous area of the southwestern USA. We consider the comparison to other southwestern USA magma sources as the more relevant alternative, although a definite conclusion is not possible at this stage. 相似文献
97.
Lynch J.F. Colosi J.A. Gawarkiewicz G.G. Duda T.F. Pierce A.D. Badiey M. Katsnelson B.G. Miller J.E. Siegmann W. Ching-Sang Chiu Newhall A. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2006,31(1):33-48
Results and recommendations for evaluating the effects of fine-scale oceanographic scattering and three-dimensional (3-D) acoustic propagation variability on the Effects of Sound on the Marine Environment (ESME) acoustic exposure model are presented. Pertinent acoustic scattering theory is briefly reviewed and ocean sound-speed fluctuation models are discussed. Particular attention is given to the nonlinear and linear components of the ocean internal wave field as a source of sound-speed inhomogeneities. Sound scattering through the mainly isotropic linear internal wave field is presented and new results relating to acoustic scattering by the nonlinear internal wave field in both along and across internal wave wavefront orientations are examined. In many cases, there are noteworthy fine-scale induced intensity biases and fluctuations of order 5-20 dB. 相似文献
98.
Abbot P. Celuzza S. Dyer I. Gomes B. Fulford J. Lynch J. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2003,28(2):192-211
Operational environmental acoustics experiments were conducted over the frequency range of 25 to 800 Hz in September 1997 in the East China Sea, where the water depth was about 100 m. Objectives of the data analysis reported here are to characterize this environment and to assess its complexities as they may impact acoustic propagation as measured by its transmission loss (TL). Conductivity-temperature-depths and expendable bathy-thermographs sampled the ocean, such that its spatial and temporal variability could be approximately separated. The sound-speed profiles are downward refracting, involve two water masses associated with the Kuroshio Current and Taiwan Warm Current, and have thermocline variations caused by internal tides. The bottom geoacoustic characteristics, presumed to be approximately horizontally isotropic, were based on data atlases and were estimated from the measured TL, for some interpretations. The TL data were obtained in octave bands from explosive signal underwater sound sources and sonobuoy receivers, both deployed at a depth of about 18 m. Tests were conducted in directions approximately normal and parallel to the bathymetric contours and the measured TL was, to zero order, independent of the direction of propagation. To higher order, directional differences in the TL were observed and ascribed to anisotropies in bottom properties. A state-of-the-art TL model was adopted, based on environmental idealizations typical of operational forecasting and compared with the measured TL. The comparison yields a probability density function that quantifies the uncertainty of such a TL model, caused by the stochastic variability of the environment, typically unknown a priori. For the model used, the pdf has a standard deviation of about 2 dB from 50 to 800 Hz and larger below 50 Hz. 相似文献
99.
Carey W.M. Cable P.G. Siegmann W.L. Lynch J.F. Rozenfeld I. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2002,27(4):841-852
The experiment, The Acoustic Characterization Test III, was conducted in the oceanographically complex Strait of Korea to accurately measure the sound transmission under known environmental conditions. Geoacoustic profiles derived from geophysical measurements, measured bathymetry, and sound-speed profiles were the basis for range dependent parabolic equation (PE) calculations. Agreement between measured and calculated transmission loss was obtained with an attenuation profile in the near water-sediment interface layer with a dependence on frequency to the 1.8 power consistent with measurements in other sand-silt areas. Since the environment was oceanographically complex and the shipping noise levels were high, the coherency of the sound transmission was estimated using relative signal gain (RSG). RSG was taken as the difference between the gain calculated with PE and measured with the array and at longer ranges and higher frequencies was found to be approximately -2 dB with a signal gain coefficient of variation of 5%. This RSG degradation, attributed to the random signal phase fluctuations resulting from scattering from the surfaces and volume of the waveguide, yielded using a Gaussian coherence function a spatial coherence length of 30/spl lambda/ @ 400 Hz-40 km. In addition, high resolution imaging of five targets with two bottom mounted arrays illustrate the achievable performance of low-to-mid frequency active sonar in this environment. 相似文献
100.