Context and climate change: an integrated assessment for Barrow, Alaska

An intensive approach to Barrow, Alaska’s adaptations to climate change and variability during recent decades suggests reconsideration of the interconnected roles of science, policy, and decision-making structures. First, profound uncertainties are inherent in unique interactions among the many natural and human factors affecting Barrow’s vulnerability. Science cannot significantly reduce these uncertainties through extensive approaches, but intensive approaches can reconstruct and update local trends, clarify the underlying dynamics, and harvest experience for policy purposes. Second, sound policies to reduce Barrow’s vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding must incorporate these profound uncertainties and the multiple values of the community. Minimizing vulnerability to climate change is only one of the community’s interests, and must compete with other interests for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Third, the community itself is in the best position to understand its own context, to decide on sound policies, and to take responsibility for those decisions. In short, local context matters in science, policy, and decision-making structures for adaptation to climate change and variability. Overall, cognitive constraints may be the most important human dimension of climate change. Factoring the global problem into more tractable local problems would make the most of our cognitive capacity.     

Model-based covariance mean variance classification techniques:algorithm development and application to the acoustic classification ofzooplankton

For inversion problems in which the theoretical relationship between observed data and model parameters is well characterized, a promising approach to the classification problem is the application of techniques that capitalize on the predictive power of class-specific models. Theoretical models have been developed for three zooplankton scattering classes (hard elastic-shelled, e.g., pteropods; fluid-like, e.g., euphausiids; and gas-bearing, e.g., siphonophores), providing a sound basis for model-based classification approaches. The covariance mean variance classification (CMVC) techniques classify broad-band echoes from individual zooplankton based on comparisons of observed echo spectra to model space realizations. Three different CMVC algorithms were developed: the integrated score classifier, the pairwise score classifier, and the Bayesian probability classifier; these classifiers assign observations to a class based on similarities in covariance, mean, and variance while accounting for model spare ambiguity and validity. The CMVC techniques were applied to broad-band (~350-750 kHz) echoes acquired from 24 different zooplankton to invert for scatterer class and properties. All three classification algorithms had a high rate of success with high-quality high SNR data. Accurate acoustic classification of zooplankton species has the potential to significantly improve estimates of zooplankton biomass made from ocean acoustic backscatter measurements     

Characteristics of acoustic propagation to the eastern vertical line array receiver during the summer 1996 New England shelfbreak PRIMER experiment

During July and August of 1996, the summer component of the New England shelfbreak front PRIMER experiment was fielded in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, at a site due south of Martha's Vineyard, MA. This study produced acoustic transmission data from a network of moored sources and receivers in conjunction with very-high-resolution oceanography measurements. This paper analyzes receptions at the northeast array receiver from two 400 Hz acoustic tomography sources, with the transmission paths going from the continental slope onto the continental shelf. These data, along with forward acoustic-propagation modeling based on moored oceanographic data, SeaSoar hydrography measurements, and bottom measurements, reveal many new and interesting aspects of acoustic propagation in a complicated slope-shelf environment. For example, one sees that both the shelfbreak front and tidally generated soliton internal wave packets produce stronger mode coupling than previously expected, leading to an interesting time-and-range-variable population of the acoustic normal modes. Additionally, the arrival time wander and the signal spread of acoustic pulses show variability that can be attributed to the presence of a frontal meander and variability in the soliton field. These and other effects are discussed in this paper, with an emphasis on creating a strong connection between the environmental measurements and the acoustic field characteristics.     

Spatial and temporal variations in acoustic propagation characteristics at the New England shelfbreak front

The spatial and temporal variability of the acoustic field in the region of a strong coastal shelfbreak front are examined, using the high-resolution environmental data from the 1996-1997 New England shelfbreak PRIMER experiment to provide input to acoustic propagation models. Specifically, the "SeaSoar" undulating conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) probe across-shelf transects provide 1-km along-track resolution, including the front, during the spring, summer, and winter seasons. These data allow one to study the diurnal and seasonal temporal variation of the acoustic field, as well as the varying spatial structure of the field. Using the RAM parabolic equation code, across-shelf acoustic field structure at 200, 400, and 1000 Hz is studied for various source depths. A number of interesting propagation effects are noted, the most interesting of which are the inhibition of strong acoustic-bottom interaction by the warm shelf water beneath the shelfbreak front and the existence of small-scale ducts near the front, due to offshore transport. Data from the vertical line arrays deployed as part of PRIMER offer partial validation of the predictions made. Specifically, it is seen that the mean received levels are in reasonable accord with propagation calculations made using locally measured bottom properties and the SeaSoar water-column measurements.     

Optimal modal beamforming of bandpass signals using an undersizedsparse vertical hydrophone array: theory and a shallow-water experiment

Conventional methods for modal beamforming of underwater acoustic signals using a vertical-line hydrophone array (VLA) can suffer significant degradation in resolution when the array is geometrically deficient, i.e., consists of sparsely spaced elements and spans the water column partially or is poorly navigated. Designed for estimating the coefficients of the normal modes, these conventional methods include the direct projection (DP) of the data on the calculated mode shapes and least-squares (LS) fitting of the mode sum to the data. The degradation, in the form of modal cross talk or sidelobes, is a result of an undersampling in depth. This cross talk may be mitigated with the application of proper space-time filter constraints in the case of a pulse transmission. In this paper, a generalized least-squares (GLS) mode beamformer, capable of incorporating physical space-time constraints on the propagation of sound, is presented. The formulation is based on the well-known theorem of Gauss and Markov. Initialized by a model prediction of the basic arrival structure of the normal modes and incorporating, iteratively, refined estimates of the statistics of the modal fluctuations, this GLS technique strives to boost the resolution of a geometrically deficient VLA. The improvement is demonstrated using the VLA data collected during a shallow-water tomography experiment in the Barents Sea. The superiority of the GLS method over the conventional DP and LS methods is evident, providing a high-quality time series of modal arrivals as a function of geophysical time, which, in turn, reveals the dominant time scales of the oceanic processes associated with the Barents Sea Polar Front     

Mass conservation in finite element groundwater models

Numerical mass balance relations are derived for common formulations of the hydraulic and species transport equations, by summing the Galerkin equations. Precise mass balance is demonstrated, provided the Galerkin equation is retained at all boundaries. The effects of quadrature, variable coefficients, transients and irregular geometry are addressed, and numerical experiments verify the algebra.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Multispacecraft Observations of Magnetic Clouds and Their Solar Origins between 19 and 23 May 2007

We analyze a series of complex interplanetary events and their solar origins that occurred between 19 and 23 May 2007 using observations by the STEREO and Wind satellites. The analyses demonstrate the new opportunities offered by the STEREO multispacecraft configuration for diagnosing the structure of in situ events and relating them to their solar sources. The investigated period was characterized by two high-speed solar wind streams and magnetic clouds observed in the vicinity of the sector boundary. The observing satellites were separated by a longitudinal distance comparable to the typical radial extent of magnetic clouds at 1 AU (fraction of an AU), and, indeed, clear differences were evident in the records from these spacecraft. Two partial-halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were launched from the same active region less than a day apart, the first on 19 May and the second on 20 May 2007. The clear signatures of the magnetic cloud associated with the first CME were observed by STEREO B and Wind while only STEREO A recorded clear signatures of the magnetic cloud associated with the latter CME. Both magnetic clouds appeared to have interacted strongly with the ambient solar wind and the data showed evidence that they were a part of the coronal streamer belt. Wind and STEREO B also recorded a shocklike disturbance propagating inside a magnetic cloud that compressed the field and plasma at the cloud’s trailing portion. The results illustrate how distant multisatellite observations can reveal the complex structure of the extension of the coronal streamer into interplanetary space even during the solar activity minimum. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.