Occurrence, distribution and characteristics of beached plastic production pellets on the island of Malta (central Mediterranean)

The distribution, abundance and chemical characteristics of plastic production pellets on beaches of the island of Malta have been determined. Pellets were observed at all locations visited and were generally most abundant (>1000 m⁻² at the surface) on the backshores of beaches with a westerly aspect. Most pellets were disc-shaped or flattened cylinders and could be categorised as white, yellow, amber or brown. The polymeric matrix of all pellets analysed by infrared spectroscopy was polyethylene and the degree of yellowing or darkening was associated with an increase in the carbonyl index, hence extent of photo-oxidation or aging. Qualitatively, pellets are similar to those reported for other regions of the Mediterranean in surveys spanning three decades, suggesting that they are a general and persistent characteristic of the region.     

Numerical investigation of the seakeeping behavior of a catamaran advancing in regular head waves

A numerical study was undertaken in order to assess the capability of an unsteady RANS code to predict the seakeeping characteristics of a high-speed multi-hull vessel in high sea states. Numerical analysis includes evaluation of ship motions, effects of wave steepness on ship response, catamaran natural frequency and added resistance in waves. Computations were performed for the DELFT 372 catamaran by the URANS solver CFDSHIP-Iowa V.4. The code was validated with encouraging results for high ship speeds (0.3≤Fn≤0.75) and high wave amplitudes (0.025≤Ak≤0.1). Comparison with strip theory solutions shows that the RANS method predicts ship motions with higher accuracy and allows the detection of nonlinear effects. Current computations evidence that heave peaks occur at resonance for all Fn, and reach the absolute maximum at Fn=0.75. Maximum pitch occurs at frequencies lower than resonance, for each speed, and absolute maximum occurs at medium Fn=0.6. Maximum added resistance, R_aw, was computed at Fn=0.45, which, interestingly, is near the catamaran Fn_coincidence. Overall, we found similar results as Simonsen et al. (2008) for KCS containership, though, herein, a multi-hull geometry and higher speeds were tested. Also, our results are useful to further evaluate the exciting forces and their correlation with f_e and λ/L_pp.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

An assessment of oceanic variability for 1960–2010 from the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has developed an ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) system based on the fully coupled climate model, CM2.1, in order to provide reanalyzed coupled initial conditions that are balanced with the climate prediction model. Here, we conduct a comprehensive assessment for the oceanic variability from the latest version of the ECDA analyzed for 51 years, 1960–2010. Meridional oceanic heat transport, net ocean surface heat flux, wind stress, sea surface height, top 300 m heat content, tropical temperature, salinity and currents are compared with various in situ observations and reanalyses by employing similar configurations with the assessment of the NCEP’s climate forecast system reanalysis (Xue et al. in Clim Dyn 37(11):2511–2539, 2011). Results show that the ECDA agrees well with observations in both climatology and variability for 51 years. For the simulation of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and global salinity variability, the ECDA shows a good performance compared to existing reanalyses. The ECDA also shows no significant drift in the deep ocean temperature and salinity. While systematic model biases are mostly corrected with the coupled data assimilation, some biases (e.g., strong trade winds, weak westerly winds and warm SST in the southern oceans, subsurface temperature and salinity biases along the equatorial western Pacific boundary, overestimating the mixed layer depth around the subpolar Atlantic and high-latitude southern oceans in the winter seasons) are not completely eliminated. Mean biases such as strong South Equatorial Current, weak Equatorial Under Current, and weak Atlantic overturning transport are generated during the assimilation procedure, but their variabilities are well simulated. In terms of climate variability, the ECDA provides good simulations of the dominant oceanic signals associated with El Nino and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the whole analyzed period, 1960–2010.     

Cratering rates in the outer Solar System

This paper is a compilation by table, graph, and equation of impact cratering rates from Jupiter to Pluto. We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets. Together they imply that the impact rate on Jupiter by 1.5-km-diameter comets is currently ?(d > 1.5 km) = 0.005−0.003+0.006 per annum. Other kinds of impactors are currently unimportant on most worlds at most sizes. The size-number distribution of impactors smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton; while the size-number distribution of impacting bodies larger than 50 km is equated to the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt objects. The gap is bridged by interpolation. It is notable that small craters on Jupiter’s moons indicate a pronounced paucity of small impactors, while small craters on Triton imply a collisional population rich in small bodies. However it is unclear whether the craters on Triton are of heliocentric or planetocentric origin. We therefore consider two cases for Saturn and beyond: a Case A in which the size-number distribution is like that inferred at Jupiter, and a Case B in which small objects obey a more nearly collisional distribution. Known craters on saturnian and uranian satellites are consistent with either case, although surface ages are much younger in Case B, especially at Saturn and Uranus. At Neptune and especially at Saturn our cratering rates are much higher than rates estimated by Shoemaker and colleagues, presumably because Shoemaker’s estimates mostly predate discovery of the Kuiper Belt. We also estimate collisional disruption rates of moons and compare these to estimates in the literature.     

On the origin of the unusual orbit of Comet 2P/Encke

The orbit of Comet 2P/Encke is difficult to understand because it is decoupled from Jupiter—its aphelion distance is only 4.1 AU. We present a series of orbital integrations designed to determine whether the orbit of Comet 2P/Encke can simply be the result of gravitational interactions between Jupiter-family comets and the terrestrial planets. To accomplish this, we integrated the orbits of a large number of objects from the trans-neptunian region, through the realm of the giant planets, and into the inner Solar System. We find that at any one time, our model predicts that there should be roughly 12 objects in Encke-like orbits. However, it takes roughly 200 times longer to evolve onto an orbit like this than the typical cometary physical lifetime. Thus, we suggest that (i) 2P/Encke became dormant soon after it was kicked inward by Jupiter, (ii) it spent a significant amount of time inactive while rattling around the inner Solar System, and (iii) it only became active again as the ν₆ secular resonance drove down its perihelion distance.     

Quaternary glacial history of the Central Karakoram

The Quaternary glacial history of the world's highest mountains, the Central Karakoram, is examined for the first time using geomorphic mapping of landforms and sediments, and ¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of boulders on the moraines and glacially eroded surfaces. Four glacial stages are defined: the Bunthang glacial stage (>0.7 Ma); the Skardu glacial stage (marine Oxygen Isotope Stage [MIS] 6 or older); the Mungo glacial stage (MIS 2); and the Askole glacial stage (Holocene). Glaciers advanced several times during each glacial stage. These advances are not well defined for the oldest glacial stages, but during the Mungo and Askole glacial stages glacial advances likely occurred at 16, 11–13, 5 and 0.8 ka. The extent of glaciation in this region became increasingly more restricted over time. In the Braldu and Shigar valleys, glaciers advanced >150 km during the Bunthang and Skardu glacial stages, while glaciers advanced >80 km beyond their present positions during the Mungo glacial stage. In contrast, glaciers advanced a few kilometers from present ice margins during the Askole glacial stage. Glacier in this region likely respond in a complex fashion to the same forcing that causes changes in Northern Hemisphere oceans and ice sheets, teleconnected via the mid-latitude westerlies, and also to changes in monsoonal intensity.     

Regional-scale back-analysis using TRIGRS: an approach to advance landslide hazard modeling and prediction in sparse data regions

Landslides in Kerala, India, have been shown to be preceded not only by critical rainfall over a short period but also a much longer period of elevated pore pressure. Such rainfall-triggered landslides are difficult to monitor due to a lack of adequate data on the locations of failures and precipitation. Here, a method is presented using Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability (TRIGRS) as a tool to model the relationship between critical rainfall and antecedent pore pressure as they relate to slope stability, which can be useful for hazard assessment in sparse data regions. This is demonstrated by parameterizing the model with a combination of regional data sources, remote sensing, and temporal back-analysis based on two known failure events (June 2004 and July 2007). Ranges of possible geotechnical and hydraulic parameters were obtained from various local and regional sources, and soil thickness was modeled as a function of slope angle. Rainfall was estimated using satellite microwave radiometry data. For back-analysis, combinations of cohesion, friction angle, and water table depth were then tested in TRIGRS using trial and error until the predicted and observed failure times coincided for the two failure events. While the spatial prediction accuracy of the model is low and multiple solution sets are expected to exist, the results confirm that information regarding the critical pre-failure conditions and stability changes over time can be derived despite data-poor circumstances. Future studies can be undertaken extending this method to characterize many parameter combinations and incorporate more failure cases to develop probabilistic early-warning thresholds.